This article is from the WeChat public account: If it is the Institute of Finance (ID: RuShiYanJiu ) , author: wealth refers to the North, from the title figure: vision China
Excerpts from Today’s Hotspot Questions and Answers
On the first day of the opening of the Gengzi year, the market was severely hit. The market opened 8.73% lower and closed at 3212 stocks. At the industry level, with the exception of pharmaceuticals which fell 3.4% and banks fell 6.5%, the rest of the sectors fell more than 7%, which is fiercer than the 2015 stock disaster. From the opening to the closing, the emotions in our various member groups fluctuated. First of all, we should ask whether we should sell, then see the inflow of foreign capital, and then we should ask whether we should copy the bottom. Today’s wealth internal reference will give everyone a unified answer.
Northbound funds are flowing in against the trend. The more panic the more the bottom?
In the case of a market crash, the net inflow of capital to the north was 18.2 billion, which is the second highest net inflow in history in a single day. Many people are lamenting that the capital of the north is still “smart money”. In fact, the capital of the north is not smart but The nature and demands of funds are different from domestic funds. For domestic investors, following the dip in foreign investment is not entirely applicable, and it is safer to wait for the signal on the right side of the market.
First, Beihang Capital’s holdings are concentrated in the blue-chip style of the broader market, and most of them are long-term funds. Sometimes it is “more and more down” for heavy stocks. For example, on October 29, 2018, the leading stocks plummeted, and all of the top ten heavy storage stocks of Beijing Capital closed down, of which 4 were on the limit, while Beijing Capital was bought against the trend, except that Midea Group and Gree Electric had a net reduction in capital from Beijing Holdings, the remaining 8 are net increase. Today, the top ten heavy stocks of Beijing Capital have all gained net overweight.
Second, part of the funds for the northward choose to hold the currency for the festival, and the understanding of the epidemic situation after the festival may be insufficient. On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, there was a net outflow of 11.8 billion funds from the north, and a cumulative net outflow of nearly 20 billion in the last three trading days. Funds were reallocated after the holiday, but the severity of the epidemic may not be fully understood.
Third, the stocks with higher net purchase amount of Beijing Capital today are still industry leaders and have strong anti-fall ability. The five stocks with the highest net inflows in the market today are Ping An of China (1.955 billion) , and Maotai, Guizhou (1.895 billion) , Gree Electric (1.491 billion) , and Yanghe shares Will the market continue to fall or even plummet?
In the short term, there are still large risks in the A-share market, and there is a high possibility of continued shock adjustment.
First, the epidemic is still in the outbreak stage, and market sentiment is difficult to reverse. Recently, the number of newly diagnosed patients has increased day by day. Today, the number of newly diagnosed patients in China has reached 2829, and the cumulative diagnosis has reached 17,205, which is already about three times the number of confirmed SARS patients. Academician Zhong Nanshan said in an interview yesterday that the next 10 days to about two weeks The epidemic may peak. The turning point of market sentiment depends on the turning point of the epidemic. At present, the situation is still grim, and it is difficult to turn sentiment into optimism.
Second, the impact of the epidemic on the economy cannot be underestimated, and the fundamentals of the stock market are not optimistic. The impact of the epidemic on the economy is much greater than that of SARS, and only direct economic losses during the Spring Festival accounted for 2In the first quarter of 019, the proportion of GDP reached 14%, and indirect losses were inestimable. The macroeconomic situation has worsened, and the overall profit recovery of the stock market will also be interrupted.
Third, the cumulative decline in SSE 50 overseas futures since January 24 exceeded SSE 50. The overseas futures of SSE 50 AXA FTSE A50 futures have accumulated a decline of 9.8% since January 24. The downward trend has not yet eased, and the decline is 2.8 percentage points higher than that of SSE 50 today.
Fourth, judging from historical experience, the largest decline in A shares during the SARS period was about 10%. The stock market plunge during the SARS period in 2003 began on April 16. At this time, the SARS epidemic has entered an exponential growth stage. The fuse was the Guangdong and Shanxi provinces listed by the World Health Organization as the epidemic areas on the previous day. The round of adjustment lasted for 8 trading days, with a maximum decline of about 10%. In terms of the spread of the epidemic, the speed of transmission, and the impact on the economy, the epidemic is more severe than in 2003, and the impact on A shares may be greater.
Fifth, judging from historical experience, the probability of negative cumulative returns within five days after the A share plunge is 63%. According to statistics from the financial sector, since 2015, there have been a total of 19 declines in thousands of shares. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 9 times the next day, and the cumulative gain within 5 days was 12 negative.
Data source: financial sector