Silhouette of 1.5 million people
Telephone interview Duan Guozheng , his three-year-old daughter called “Dad” beside him.
He said that this Spring Festival is the longest holiday spent with his family since he joined work.
Duan Guozheng is a real estate agent. In the first half of 2019, he ranked first in the district’s performance. At the peak of the transaction, he had to take dozens of consultation calls a day and take four batches of customers to see the house.
But now he doesn’t come out in his old home in Tianshui, Gansu.
“We belong to real estate sales. We have very few holidays each year. We usually only take one day a week and take 10 days off for the New Year. All other statutory holidays are working normally. The working hours are longer than other industries! This year In the event of an epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has exceeded 20 days, which is the longest time to accompany family members in these years! “
But, Duan Guozheng I hope that the epidemic will end soon and everything will return to normal.
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The monthly rent is 2,800 yuan, and the mortgage is 3,500 yuan. Two children and one family need expenses, and they ca n’t live without 10,000 yuan a month.
“We are still at the stage of hard work, and certainly not working without work.”
Tianshui City is not a severely affected area, but there are already 10 confirmed cases (as of February 5), which is enough for everyone to stay at home without leaving the house.
The company postponed work to February 10th. He is planning to return on the last day of the holiday, but even if he arrives in Beijing, he and his colleagues will face a no-deal status with an uncertain length, in addition to the 14-day isolation period.
The intermediary store where Duan Guozheng is located has 19 agents, of which 4 new employees have just arrived in the store less than 3 months ago. They were recruited directly from the university in Shanxi Province. They encountered this at the beginning of their careers. Major events can be recalled in the future, and because of this, they will have a deeper understanding of the cruelty of the industry, but they are currently unable to work normally.
Last year, the company pushed for VR house viewing, enriching the service mode for agents like Duan Guozheng. Nowadays, VR and online interaction have become their only work content.
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From offline to online, the purpose is to keep in touch with the customers who had been in the house before but did not close the deal, and to know their trends at any time.
“But if the house is not viewed on the ground, it will definitely not work.” Duan Guozheng In the impression, the last sharp market decline was after the introduction of the “317 New Deal” in 2017 because the loan threshold was raised Even the loans were stopped directly, and the market was quickly frozen. “After the policy came out, the larger fluctuations were house prices and transaction volumes, but there were real transactions. Some people lowered the price, and some people looked at the house.”
But no one is showing this time. There are also some homes where people live, the owner directly chose to suspend the viewing to avoid cross-person infection risk. Individual owners directly removed the listings and waited for the outbreak to sell them.
Blank Institute analysts also believe that the real estate industry cannot leave the offline, “only online is too superficial”, the most important offline is not only to tap the needs, the agent’s words, communication, eyes, behavior, A smile can lead to a transaction, while online is relatively cold.
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“The transaction volume in the first half of the year will definitely decline compared to 2019”, said Duan Guozheng , the biggest problem is that the transaction cycle of many orders will be significantly extended, and Beijing is now replacing it with Demand-based, buyers need to sell one to buy one. The normal transaction cycle takes 4-8 months. After the epidemic comes, it may take longer than 8 months to complete the entire process.
段 国 正 has been working for 8 years and belongs to the top 20% of the brokers. The money in his hand is sufficient for more than half a year, and the customers who have previously traded will introduce new ones. The list comes in. But those brokers who have just turned right and their basic salary is not enough to protect their lives. How can they survive this long 8-month blank period without a new client in the market?
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17 years ago during the SARS period, a few months of transaction gaps led to the loss of a large number of “newcomers”. Most of the brokers of the intermediary companies suffered a major blood exchange and even a large number of stores closed. Without “newcomers”, not only the talent team of the brokerage company may be out of stock, but the lack of manpower in registration, key acquisition, and signing guidelines will also reduce the company’s transaction efficiency.
The industry is expected to be much more mature today than it was during SARS, so it wo n’t suffer such a big impact, but there will also be a considerable number of brokers who feel the tremendous pressure brought by the stagnation of the market.
At present, there are about 1.5 million real estate agents in China. They are located in large, medium and small cities across the country, and now they are at home like their customers.
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According to statistics from 58 cities in the same city and Anju, the traditional “hunting period” for finding a house during the Spring Festival is superimposed with a nationwide new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. First-tier cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shenzhen, or second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, Linyi, etc., landlords’ housing sales have tightened.
The proportion of visits to the Temporary VR room in Beijing, Haikou, and Taiyuan increased by 76.3%, 72.7%, and 70.8%, respectively. Demand is concentrated online, but it is difficult to close in a short period of time, extending the “off-season” of the previous Spring Festival indefinitely. The “Little Spring” expected by the broker has been postponed to at least the second quarter, after the arrival of summer.
The leasing market data from the Shell Research Institute also showed the same situation. In January 2020, the number of new homes and the number of customers increased. ——The data for the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019 are: the number of houses decreased by 20.25% month-on-month, and the number of customers decreased by 12.21% month-on-month.
“If the epidemic lasts too long and the transaction volume drops sharply, you need to consider shrinking.” Yang Xianling, director of the Blank Research Institute, suggested that in extreme cases, intermediary companies can: stop large-scale recruitment, retain core personnel; Stores and large stores; adjusting wage structure and other methods to survive the crisis, improve efficiency, and wait for the market to recover. “In the future, the total market of the second-hand, new and rental housing markets will obviously increase, and the intermediary willWe are convinced of the “Golden Age” of development. “
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Duan Guozheng is planning to return to Beijing on February 10 and wear a mask to work for a while until the epidemic has passed.
He wrote in the circle of friends, “An annual vacation, from winter to spring, do not recharge again, and recharge in February will end.” Flowing quietly from the village side, waiting for spring flowers to bloom.