Those who cannot kill us will eventually make us stronger.

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Inspur New Consumption” (ID: lcxinxiaofei), author Cao Rui.

In the Spring Festival of 2020, the sudden outbreak caught everyone off guard. Although the good news is increasing, for most companies, the “winter” has just begun.

In the tide of all the people ’s homes, “clothing, food, shelter, and transportation” has become a hardest hit area. For example, “food”, in the case of Xibei, Laoxiang chicken and other head companies can not support for three months, the situation of SMEs can be imagined.

The situation of “clothing” is not much better. Clothing is an industry with a “temperature”. Inventories are backlogged in winter and cannot be restocked in spring. “Many people go bankrupt when they open the door.”

To this end, Inspur New Consumers has in-depth communicated with more than a dozen entrepreneurs in the apparel industry recently. From the production end to the sales end, various online and offline industrial chain links and formats have been involved, covering sports, women’s bags, jeans, Hanfu and other fields.

There is even one confirmed respondent who, fortunately, has basically recovered and is about to be discharged.

“The factory can’t be opened, and basically nothing can be done.”

“E-commerce companies will also be restrained because the supply cannot keep up. If the logistics can no longer operate normally, the impact will be further expanded.

“The offline stores have basically ceased operation. The original single store sold 20,000 to 30,000 a day, and now only 2-3 thousand.”

The problems faced by the entire clothing industry are similar, but most entrepreneurs remain optimistic while actively responding, and are generally optimistic about the market and opportunities after the epidemic.

As one of the entrepreneurs said, “The most needed thing now is the fire of stars, let everyone see more hope, and then stick to it.”

“Many people go bankrupt when they open the door, and now they need the” fire of stars “”

(General manager of a women’s clothing brand in Hangzhou)

1, the original single store sold 2-3 million a day, now only 2-3 thousand

I have been a clothing company for 9 years. I did product design, R & D and OEM for the first 7 years, and then transformed into a brand that integrates design, production, sales, and direct sales stores.

In the past three years, we have opened 60 stores and achieved annual revenue of about 100 million. There are more than 300 employees in the back and forth. It is in a very prosperous period.

Now suddenly I encounter such a thing. Originally, a single store sold 2-3 million a day, and now it is only 2-3 thousand.

And most of usThe stores are closed, and the few stores that are still open follow the mall as early as 10 to 7 and there are almost no people. The impact is not a little bit.

We made two waves of products in the New Year. The original plan was to sell them by the end of March. The new and reserve work will be done in mid-March, but now all of them have to be postponed.

Originally our cash flow is very good, but according to the current situation, if we really want to continue for another 3-5 months, it is really very risky.

In this case, the life of the factory may be more difficult. We do not give him an order. China’s foreign trade is not good now. The entire clothing industry faces similar difficulties.

2, it is not easy to sell online, many people are bankrupt when they open the door directly

So the original omnichannels we planned to do can only go to the premise, as long as the channels that can deal with people, such as WeChat and Weibo, will try. At this stage, we still have to find a way to sell more and make a good cash flow.

But I tried it for a few days and only sold it piecemeal. I haven’t found a very effective way. The original plan was to open up 50 new stores, which might have to be repaid. I think it is necessary to throw away unnecessary movements, and let it go first.

Now that the country is moving so big, I think there should be a turning point on the fifteenth day of the first month.

However, it will take 3 to 4 months to resume normal operation. The full recovery should be around May 1st, because even if the epidemic situation has passed, people will still have a certain sense of fear of going out. Wasted.

In this process, there will definitely be many small and medium brands that can’t survive it. At the sales end, for example, if you buy down jackets, it was a warm winter last year. In addition to the epidemic situation, many people bought one or two million items, which may not be sold for 70,000 or 80,000.

The inventory in winter is usually after the fifteenth of the first month, and the capital is returned by discounting the money. However, this year, without this opportunity, many people opened the door and went bankrupt.

3, the saddest is the medium-sized factory, now the “star fire” is most needed

For the production side, it depends on which stage he belongs to. Large factories have high costs but generally have a certain amount of financial strength. Small factories have dozens or hundreds of machines, hundreds of thousands of rents a year, and losses are limited if they do not start. The saddest thing is actually medium-sized factories. Daily plants, equipment, Wage losses are significant.

There are also good aspects, because we also work in the community and find that everyone is talking about panic and want to buy new clothes and wear them. In other words, there is no fear of consumers. No one said that they want to keep their money for the winter, and their desire for consumption is still quite strong. Now the people who have the greatest fear are those who do business.

But if you can survive this epidemic and you can take a step forward, you will have the opportunity to make a real new Chinese brand. Because especially small and some big brands that do n’t follow the rhythm will be washed out, clothingThe pattern of the industry will change a lot, and this is a once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity.

At this stage, I think we need some good news that can be inspiring, instead of saying every day who is bankrupt, that will only increase panic. Now the “star fire” is most needed, so that everyone can see more hope and stick to it.

“The factory can do nothing now, and the community e-commerce will also die”

(a garment fabric manufacturer in Shenzhen)

1. All foreign customers do not accept, this problem is very big

We are the “production + trade” of clothing. We have companies in Shenzhen, Ningbo, and Shaoxing, and now we can basically do nothing. Because the factory cannot be started, logistics cannot be transported, customers do not pick up the goods, and even the opening time of the professional market is to be determined.

The start time required by the government is February 17th, but it is actually to be determined. It depends on the later situation. It is estimated to be March.

We originally planned to be an international station this year, but now we can’t get through the customs in this situation. This is a bit like the nuclear radiation from Fukushima in the past. No one wants all seafood. Now foreign customers do not accept it. This problem is very big.

All of our plans will be postponed this year. In the worst case, it may not be resumed until April. But you still have to pay your wages as usual. When you start construction in the next year, suddenly you cannot recruit people.

But the factory is not the same as the trade side. We lose up to 200 people’s salary at the most. And we are making tablecloths and tablecloths. We did not have much in the beginning of the year. We mainly rely on the second half of the year. The impact is not too great.

2, e-commerce in the clothing community should die in half

It’s just a plan to push backwards. Production may be anxious at that time. I think this outbreak should have the least impact on the apparel industry in the manufacturing industry. Because clothing will not rot, at most it will lose wages, but electronic components will be replaced and food will expire.

But it is not so absolute. Some small factories and traders with insufficient strength may directly dump, especially the e-commerce in the community, which should kill more than half. why? Because there is no transaction now, the community has no money to earn him and he disperses.

Most of the e-commerce businesses are husband and wife shops, or production-oriented communities. If you do n’t make any purchases for 3-6 months, there may be no goods, and the communities without goods will disappear. We are also waiting for this opportunity to do integration.

3. It will be a good integration opportunity under epidemic situation

So I think this epidemic situation may be a turning point for e-commerce, especially for those who have done a small job or have just stepped in. This is a big opportunity.Because there is no pressure, integration can be done instead.

But the premise is to have a strong cash capacity, because there is not much difference in clothing manufacturing products, as long as there are suits, everyone can produce, the gap is in financial strength, you ca n’t provide orders and you ca n’t get orders. .

So for us, the epidemic situation is a good opportunity for integration. Many of the community e-commerce companies have fallen, and their customers can just get us.

Also, there will be a wave of explosive purchases in summer, because the epidemic should be all over at that time. This virus is that the lower the temperature, the higher the survival rate. In recent days, the temperature of Shenzhen has risen to 20 degrees, and it has been controlled.

So in Guangdong, I think the epidemic will be lifted in March. In the north, it may be from May to June because the temperature has not risen yet. In fact, SARS also originated in Guangdong and Hong Kong, and then went to the north to erupt, but the epidemic was lifted as soon as the temperature rose.

So I’m not panicking. It’s nothing more than the original plan to do cross-border. Now we collect it first and do it domestically. Moreover, the retail side is now being suppressed. Taking advantage of these two or three months, we will do a good job of the supply chain. When we open it again in June, we can eat this surge.

“For some e-commerce, inventory becomes a guarantee”

(Partner of a sportswear brand Shantou)

1. I was infected and spent the whole Spring Festival in the hospital

On December 23, I was quarantined, and I spent the entire Spring Festival in a hospital.

Our company manufactures leather goods online, offline sports sales, and has its own factory. I’m a shareholder myself, I didn’t care about it before, but the time was vacated at the end of last year, and it coincided with the company’s expansion into the northern market.

So I just started to contact in December, but I encountered it in less than a month, and I was infected. But now he is about to be discharged from hospital, which is the first cure in Shantou.

I’ve always been optimistic myself. After all, I’m young and have good resistance in all aspects. For our company, the long-term impact is not great, because our products are mainly concentrated in the summer.

But the short-term impact is certain. The e-commerce part is okay. At this time, everyone did not have much demand for leather goods. In addition, their own inventory should be able to support the end of the first month. At this time, for e-commerce, inventory has become a guarantee.

2, online is expected to decrease by 30%, offline first month is basically 0

Our e-commerce business can make 7.8 billion yuan a year. It is estimated that this period will reduce sales by about 30% year-on-year. But this is a problem for the entire industry, and there is no way for anyone, now onlyThere is customer service to do some daily maintenance there.

In addition, it is offline. Last year, the entire first month was about 7 million. This year, it has basically been 0, because offline stores have basically stopped operating.

However, the whole society still has a mentality to cope with the difficulties, and it is not so uncomfortable. For example, many of Wanda have begun rent-free. In addition, we are companies with relatively strong cash reserves. No matter what, the epidemic situation can continue to run.

But there may be a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, after this time people ’s awareness of sports and health has improved. The total sports market ’s growth of 10% should be no problem. As for how much our family can grow, it depends on how we can develop in the next few months.

What you can do now is to try more on the sales side and return some cash flow. For example, the live broadcast has been initially contacted, but it is still difficult to find a very suitable live broadcast partner.

3. Online is being re-emphasized, and opportunities for national brands are coming

In addition, I think the epidemic will bring two changes to the industry:

The first is the re-emphasis on the online part. In recent years, various industries have gradually shifted from online to offline. This trend will not change, but the pace will slow down.

Second, national self-confidence will skyrocket. As a result, the sales of national brands will increase sharply. For example, Hanfu should have a great opportunity.

“Get the job done first, I can’t even guarantee that I won’t get infected”

(a casual jeans manufacturer in Guangzhou)

1. Focus on people first, as long as one person is infected, the loss cannot be calculated

Our company is based in Guangzhou and mainly produces denim and casual pants. The epidemic situation in Guangzhou is also relatively serious. The biggest problem now is that we can’t get the order. Several customers are already asking about the delivery period.

Also, we are mainly export-oriented. Although we do not accept domestic products at all, foreign customers are a bit worried about watching the news.

The good thing is that we produce according to the order, there will not be such a domestic press, and there will not be a lot of foreign orders one month after the New Year, so the cash flow will have no effect.

We originally planned to return to work after the Lantern Festival. Now this situation should be able to resume work normally, but we must be very careful in terms of hygiene. As long as one of our two hundred workers is infected, the entire factory will not need to be started, so the loss cannot be calculated.

Now the most important thing is to take good protection, take temperature, masks, gloves, and require them to have less contact through company rules and regulations. However, the scope of management is still limited. Now most afraid of these places in the vegetable market, production enterprises still have to buy vegetables.

So thisAt this stage, people may be more dangerous than enterprises. There are too many unknowns. This is already the case before the large-scale rework wave, and it is impossible to prevent people from contacting later.

Many friends in production have similar ideas to me. It is good to focus on people first, because we cannot guarantee that we will not be infected.

2, this is a time to immerse yourself in the development of core competitiveness

The most uncomfortable thing now is the upstream supply chain facing the domestic consumer market, such as fabric manufacturers. But if you mainly export to Southeast Asia, it will be the biggest beneficiary of this period.

Because the trade war last year will affect the exchange rate of exports. If the exchange rate depreciates by 10%, your profit in exports to Southeast Asia will increase by 10%.

In addition, some large and non-standard companies will be more uncomfortable, and small companies will be better. The wave of washing out of a group of companies 17 years ago, and also a bunch of very good companies came out, this time is the same opportunity.

For us, on the one hand, we must first open up the channels, and on the other hand, the most important thing for traditional companies is products. During this time, we can just focus on product development and improve product quality and quality. Product research and development.

This is a good time to develop your core competitiveness.

“Lighten the entire cost structure and invest more in content”

(Head of a fashion clothing brand in Shanghai)

1. In the first half of the year, compared with the past, there will be fewer new products.

We are a trending brand in the direction of e-sports, mainly clothing, and we will also help some e-sports clubs or game anchors to make commercialization.

This epidemic has the biggest impact on us. First, the factory may have to postpone the start of construction, which will cause some of our new products to be unavailable in time. Second, the inventory may be stranded years ago.

In addition, most of our plans and orders will be postponed, but we have not cancelled. Some cooperating products take time into consideration and may need to make some adjustments in the fabric and design, because the temperature may already be high by then.

But in the first half of the year, there will definitely be fewer new products than in the past. Moreover, according to the previous rules, all kinds of warehouses and factories should be started in these two days, and sales will pick up, but now due to the epidemic situation, many of them are still stagnant.

In addition, advertising revenue also accounts for a large proportion of our revenue. Many brands will definitely reduce their budget for advertising investment in the first half of the year, so the impact on us is quite large.

2. Lighten the entire cost structure and invest more in content

I think the entityThe pressure on the industry is still quite large, because most of the clothing industry is physically large enough, or mature, before going to open offline stores. No one can think of this sudden outbreak, and its impact on future development cannot be estimated.

But it will not affect the future development direction of the entire clothing industry. This still needs to be dynamically adjusted according to the consumer’s consumption habits and living needs.

Now we can only reduce the costs first, at least we must control the cash flow. Regardless of the epidemic, the most important thing in the clothing industry is cash flow, supply chain, and inventory. In addition, management must reduce unnecessary costs and improve the working status of employees.

Especially in the past two days, we have started work online, but the state of working in the office is completely different and the efficiency is also different.

This epidemic has also sounded an alarm for us. We need to control expenditures and lighten the overall cost structure, so we will invest more in content in the future. I don’t think the whole situation will be particularly good in 2020.

“If the community, live broadcast, and short video are arranged properly, there is more to do now”

(Head of Marketing of a Women ’s Bag Brand Guangzhou)

1. Affected by Taobao, our entire rhythm also needs to be adjusted.

I’m an e-commerce company for women’s bags in Guangzhou. I belong to an independent designer brand. Although we are online retail, if the logistics can’t work normally, it will actually affect us a lot.

In addition, our upstream suppliers and raw materials factories have also delayed their start-up a long time, so there will be some constraints on supply.

But the cash reserves are still sufficient, and there should be no major problems in supporting 3-6 months.

In fact, at the end of last year, we had already made a rough plan for this year. Because Taobao’s marketing activities are rhythmic, we usually follow their overall rhythm. But now Taobao is also affected. Many activities in February and March have been cancelled, and our pace must also be adjusted.

2. Communities, live broadcasts, short videos, if the arrangement is particularly complete, there is more to do now

In terms of marketing, I think it ’s best to get as many new customers as possible at this stage. Of course, old customers should also be maintained. Of course, the people of the whole country are very sensitive now, and they can no longer be operated by selling goods, so we are going to engage in a project fundraising, such as a special female canvas bag for epidemic situation, and then go with fans to engage in epidemic related Charitable activities.

While active old customers, get more new customers. Originally, it was supposed to start to release in February. During the Chinese New Year, a group of users have been accumulated, but now this situation can only be extended to continue to do customer accumulation.

LeObservationally, in fact, this epidemic situation can also help us realize some shortcomings. For example, the community, our Taobao store now has more than 900,000 followers, but in fact we only have more than 10,000 in the WeChat group, and it is not operating well.

There is also the layout of short video channels such as Douyin and Kuaishou, including live channels, graphic and other content channels. In fact, I wanted to push them in the past, but they were not arranged completely. If we had all these things prepared before, there would be more to do now.

So in the short term, I will push the team to focus as much as possible on the community, and focus on live broadcasts and short videos in the future.

If you can’t kill us, it will eventually make us stronger.