Poverty is not because a person’s property has decreased, but because his greed has increased.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account: Bearded room, (ID: dahuzishuofang ) , author: bearded, said room, an authorized reprint
“Poverty is not because a person’s property has decreased, but because his greed has increased.”
01
This is a sentence in Social Psychology, which makes sense.
We can understand it in two ways.
One is that human desires are always endless. Many of those who shouted that they are poor are simply dissatisfied with desire.
Second, in this materialistic society, unrealistic greed often leads to ultimate poverty. Whether it is the stock market or the property market, there are always people who fantasize about making a quick dip and then making a big profit, and finally become a fresh leek under the capital game.
The same is true in 2020. The sudden and intensifying epidemic has caused many changes in people’s expectations of asset prices.
Many people are convinced by Buffett ’s famous saying of “greed when others are scared”, with some scattered predictions on the Internet, in an attempt to dip the property market after the epidemic, hoping that he is the one who bought at the lowest point.
However, they have forgotten the truth of Hegel: the only lesson we have learned from history is that we have never learned from history.
This sentence can be used by those who eat game, the person who is responsible for handling the news of the epidemic, and of course, it can also be given to a group of people who are only thinking of making a copy.
Taking history as a mirror, how many people in China have thought of making a bottom-off in a crisis, but most people who have this idea will eventually miss it.
SARS in 2003, rebounded immediately after the epidemic, and did not give people reaction time at all;
In the financial crisis of 2008, as soon as the 4 trillion plan was introduced, the property market recovered rapidly, which was totally unexpected and pessimistic.
How many of them seized the opportunity? I’m afraid most of them don’t respond until prices start to recover or even start to skyrocket.
This is not to say that this epidemic will bring a rapid recovery of the property market, but to express all seemingly accurate predictions, inferences, and firm conclusions, which may be vulnerable and unexpected under the mad market sentiment. .
No one can accurately predict the short-term trend of the property market under this epidemic, and no one can accurately predict the sentiment of the entire market on asset prices.
The word “bottom copy” was originally aimed at big ups and downs. And drastically ups and downsThe price is mostly due to market sentiment.
Bottom sale, that is, when everyone is unanimously bearish on an asset that causes a short-term price drop, but who knows everyone’s thoughts?
Indeed, the advent of this epidemic will cut the life of high-leverage real estate investors who have broken the capital chain, which will cause owners of multi-property-affected properties to sell their homes to survive, and will make developers with tight capital chains cut prices and return funds.
But when do investors cut? When do business owners sell? When will developers drop? It is difficult to judge these emotional nodes that are about to explode. It is almost impossible to make a complete bottoms.
But there is one thing that can be effectively judged in the investment field.
That is, value!
If you want to obtain a stable return on your investment, judging the subject matter for long-term holding by value is a good choice.
Real estate is no different.
The value of real estate is the urban economy and product quality.
02 Economy
To mention the urban economy, we must first talk about the national economy.
In SARS in 2003, China’s GDP was 12 trillion yuan.
In the new crown in 2020, China’s total GDP level is already 100 trillion yuan.
Even if our economic growth rate is only 6 points, and even if our economic policy has been conservative, the virus has not been greatly enhanced, and our ability to resist risks has been 10 times that of that year.
So you can rest assured that as long as the epidemic can be controlled, the virus will not have a turbulent impact on the Chinese economy.
The same goes for the urban economy. 7 billion box office hit the water, catering retail revenue was cut, and the tourism market was completely frozen. . . These industries did lose a lot, but fortunately, only the pause button was pressed.
While we can still see delivery guys and takeaways traveling through the streets, Hema Xiansheng, Pupu Supermarket, Dingdong shopping, and daily fresh vegetables such as fresh vegetables are in short supply, online werewolves and mobile phones Eat chicken often server crashes, online office applications and online education courses emerge endlessly. . . There is a wave of wave after wave of falling. These industries seem to have been pressed by the accelerator key.
When the pause button is pressed to restart, when the accelerator button is pressed to continue, yes, and the officials who have been pressed to change the blood, the transformation of the city is taking place step by step. We Economy is still stable and improving.
Without the economy being hit hard by the epidemic, the structural shortage of urban housing still exists. Then the core medium and large cities where the industry has development prospects and real estate is still in short supply, their prices will have room to rise in the long run, and will not decline due to a plague.
The Great Plague of London in the 17th century, where 80,000 people were killed. Severe cholera broke out in the United States in 1832, and New York closed the city at that time.
However, properties in London and New York have maintained their value and appreciated, and their scarcity still exists.
03 Product value
There are as many developers as there are products.
Under this epidemic, more than 100 cities across the country have proposed or requested the moratorium on the opening of sales offices, and housing companies that have turned to online customers have fallen into a passive situation. In order to recover funds, developers seem to have to cut prices to promote sales after the epidemic is over.
Are there any product issues at this time?
It depends on the strength of the developer.
For large real estate companies, with scale and brand endorsement, financing difficulty and financing costs are relatively low. Through business cooperation between the giants or other financial means, they can often pass the period of “lack of money”.
In 2017, Wanda, which had a debt of 4 trillion yuan, needed to withdraw funds. It directly packaged 13 cultural tourism projects to Sunac, recovered more than 60 billion yuan, and finally passed the crisis.
Hubei Sales Top 20 Real Estate Enterprise Anti-risk Indicators:
Small housing companies have weak anti-risk capabilities because of their small size and difficulty in financing, and even some housing companies are unable to obtain loans from banks at all. Under this epidemic, the tide of returning homes in third- and fourth-tier cities has ceased, and some small housing companies with weak capital chains may be eliminated.
Some surviving small developers may reduce the quality standards of houses in order to save costs. Two years after the epidemic is not allowed, it is another wave of rights protection.
So, from the perspective of product value, under the impact of this epidemic, there may be many small housing companies discounting and reducing prices, but I still recommend that you choose a large developer, and I dare not say that the products of large developers must Better, but at least there is a good chance that the building can be successfully collected.
04 Knot
The Nest
There are as many developers as there are products.
Under this epidemic, more than 100 cities across the country have proposed or requested the moratorium on the opening of sales offices, and housing companies that have turned to online customers have fallen into a passive situation. In order to recover funds, developers seem to have to cut prices to promote sales after the epidemic is over.
Are there any product issues at this time?
It depends on the strength of the developer.
For large real estate companies, with scale and brand endorsement, financing difficulty and financing costs are relatively low. Through business cooperation between the giants or other financial means, they can often pass the period of “lack of money”.
In 2017, Wanda, which had a debt of 4 trillion yuan, needed to withdraw funds. It directly packaged 13 cultural tourism projects to Sunac, recovered more than 60 billion yuan, and finally passed the crisis.
Hubei Sales Top 20 Real Estate Enterprise Anti-risk Indicators:
Small housing companies have weak anti-risk capabilities because of their small size and difficulty in financing, and even some housing companies are unable to obtain loans from banks at all. Under this epidemic, the tide of returning homes in third- and fourth-tier cities has ceased, and some small housing companies with weak capital chains may be eliminated.
Some surviving small developers may reduce the quality standards of houses in order to save costs. Two years after the epidemic is not allowed, it is another wave of rights protection.
So, from the perspective of product value, under the impact of this epidemic, there may be many small housing companies discounting and reducing prices, but I still recommend that you choose a large developer, and I dare not say that the products of large developers must Better, but at least there is a good chance that the building can be successfully collected.