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P.s.

The documentary was released on February 9th, and the data and information at the time of production are cited, which do not represent the latest progress;

The analysis of the experts in the film may be different from China’s “authoritative release”, but Sir believes that the collision of views of various parties is more helpful to us to approach the facts than one word.

One

What is a new crown virus?

What makes this virus so raging and people are helpless?

A documentary about the new crown, the first thing to answer is this question.

This is also the so-called “dry goods”.

Instead of rushing to “suppress panic”, NHK and Pan have come out, even though the truth may be cruel.

First pointed out is a characteristic of the new coronavirus-asymptomatic infection.

In one case, one member of an infected six-member family had no symptoms at all.

Jin Dongyan, a professor at the University of Hong Kong Medical School, immediately pointed out that this is a situation that must be vigilant.

That is to say, some people carry the virus but have no symptoms, so they will think they are not infected, and they will not go to the hospital for a diagnosis.

But in fact, they can still unintentionally spread the virus to others.

This situation has now been officially confirmed.

According to the “Pneumonitis Case Surveillance Protocol for the New Coronavirus Infection (Third Edition)”, asymptomatic infection is asymptomatic, but the pathogenic test for the new coronavirus in respiratory specimens is positive.

Besides, what makes the situation more serious is the incubation period.

New coronaviruses are distinguished from other infectious diseases by the fact that there are many examples of secondary infections before and during incubation.

According to the research and analysis of Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University, many patients who are still in the incubation period are obviously not yet sick, but can infect the next patient at an average rate of 3 or 4 days.

If the cycle is only three days, the number of infected people will continue to infect more people.

Asymptomatic and incubation period infections make it increasingly difficult to prevent and cure infection sources and cut off infection pathways.

In epidemic situations, we often compare the new crown with SARS.

Many people are asking, 17 years have passed. Why have we not grown up, or are we free of chickens in the face of the disease?

But one of the reasons, as the expert who has participated in the command of WHO in the blockade of SARS and Professor of Northeastern University, Gu Guren said that the new crown virus and SARS virus are essentiallyThere is a big difference.

In fact, it (new coronavirus) is very different from SARS, and it is more difficult to control, especially if you want to block it, it is not easy. Almost all infected people became severe during SARS. All infected people can be found.

But on this virus, the situation developed without finding the infection chain.

Seeing this, some people may question-the media render the virus terrible to the public and the epidemic is serious, will it not cause panic?

Actually, we have seen a lot of this mentality in this epidemic.

From the “eight gentlemen” to the feast of ten thousand people. We panic “panic”. But they are unwilling to face the fact that viruses are most likely to sneak in in contempt. From the discovery of asymptomatic infections to the official announcement of this phenomenon, it was also after a ten-day delay.

Only talking about optimistic expectations, not seriousness and tension, can we fight this epidemic?

Aiming at the 2009 H1N1 virus outbreak in Mexico and the 2014-2015 flu season in Washington, D.C., the University of Washington ’s quantitative model has long pointed out that when the media coverage increases tenfold, the number of infectious diseases will decrease 33.5%.

Also as Bai Yansong stated in the CCTV live broadcast:At times, information disclosure is the best “vaccine”.

Let information run through the virus, which will help curb fear and stabilize public sentiment.

When Japan was still in the early stages of the epidemic (as of February 9, the documentary was released, 89 cases were confirmed), NHK chose to give the least optimistic truth.

If the epidemic is early, we can have the same courage.

What will happen today?

Second

What should we do?

Identify the problem and resolve it.

Rather than sing praises, a documentary aimed at reality needs to reflect on its ills and propose directions for improvement.

Facing an unknown virus, Japan has also made many mistakes. For example, underestimate the infectivity of the virus.

The first asymptomatic infected person in Japan to be suspected was a bus driver in Nara Prefecture. He had symptoms of coughing and chilling while working as a driver of a tour group from Wuhan, but no tourist showed such symptoms in the tour group at that time. As a result, when he went to the designated medical institution for investigation, the doctor did not arrange for him to be tested for the new crown virus.

The results are disastrous.

The driver went to the hospital for a diagnosis on January 17, but the diagnosis was made on the 28th. After exactly 11 days.

NHK made this neglect and publicity public and let the Japanese people see what the government missed in the face of opportunity. It turned out that the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (equivalent to the Ministry of Health) initially stipulated that only people who had been in contact with “Wuhan people who have fever or pneumonia symptoms” were screened. Later realized the seriousness