Author | Liang Jianzhang, Huang Wenzheng
Title Map | Visual China
According to the latest data released by the National Health and Medical Commission, until 24:00 on February 15th, newly confirmed cases outside Hubei fell for 12 consecutive days, from The increase of 890 cases on February 3 dropped to 166 cases on February 15.
This downward trend indicates that the epidemic situation outside Hubei can be controlled. At the press conference held on February 15, the National Health and Medical Commission spokesman said that in addition to the obvious positive changes in the epidemic situation in other provinces other than Hubei, he also specifically mentioned that the prevention and control of cases and case treatment At the same time, it is necessary to minimize the impact of the epidemic on people’s production and life.
In fact, this is also the direction we have always been concerned about, and we must not let the excessive isolation measures based on excessive panic destroy the Chinese economy.
Facing the epidemic situation, all regions have adopted a strict preventive attitude. It should be said that many of these efforts are necessary and respectable. However, during the prevention and treatment process, some radical practices have also appeared, that is, treating all people who are foreign or have travel experience as flood beasts. As for the isolation measures adopted for this, there is also a tendency to increase from the top to the lower layers.
For example, the municipal government may only require quarantine of personnel from areas with severe epidemics, but at the neighborhood, residents’ committees and properties require that those who have traveled should be quarantined for 14 days. And in order to ensure that such coded measures can be implemented, various communities have also introduced measures such as temporary passes, passes and curfews. At the same time as it seems to guarantee the safety of life, it has caused the entire society to pay a heavy price of near paralysis. For example, an employee who travels to several cities is quarantined for 14 days in Land A, and is quarantined for 14 days in Land B, and quarantined for 14 days in Land C. Isolate for 14 days, then normal work cannot be performed.
Of course, life safety deserves the highest level of attention. I believe that the original intentions of the rule-makers and implementers are also good. But the diseases that threaten the lives of the people are not just new pneumonia. Already have mediaThe body reported that some cancer patients and AIDS patients were not treated in a timely manner due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures. And, what does it cost to pay these prices?
For example, of the tens of thousands of patients currently diagnosed, how many were diagnosed after returning home from a non-epidemic area and during quarantine? You may wish to search for news about your place of residence, and the answer may completely subvert your existing conjectures. At least from what has been reported so far, the vast majority of cases have a history of living or travelling in a severely affected area. Confirmed diagnosis, such examples are rare.
Someone may still say that even if there are few possibilities, you must do your best to ensure zero risk. This idea may be conceptually correct, but in practice it ignores the social cost factor. We must know that in order to ensure such a zero risk, tens of millions or even billions of passengers across the country must accept a 14-day quarantine period, which will have a huge negative impact on individuals, businesses and the entire society.
We always believe that the grading and isolation measures based on data analysis and scientific demonstration are the current solutions that can better balance the epidemic prevention and restoration of order.
First of all, for those visitors from severely affected areas, the 14-day quarantine measures should be strictly implemented, which should also be the focus of the concentrated resources of each community;
Second, if you are a passenger from a non-epidemic area, you can try to cancel or reduce the quarantine time based on the analysis of previous data. Considering that the median incubation period announced by Zhong Nanshan’s team is 3 days, reducing 14 days to 7 days is actually enough to reduce the risk by 70% to 90%, and significantly reduce the impact on the economy and life;
Finally, mobile roaming data from several major operators can be used to help judge the risk of infection and determine whether quarantine measures are necessary. If someone has been quarantined in A for 14 days, and then he drives to the residence in B, in which case his risk of infection will not be significantly higher than those who always live in B It is necessary to subject him to another 14-day quarantine.
In fact, in the context of the nationwide emphasis on epidemic prevention and control, data analysis should be placed in a very important position. For example, some people think that the reason why passengers are required to be quarantined for 14 days is because they may have experienced high-risk public places such as airports or train stations during the trip. Then the next questionYes, are these places really high risk?
Currently, outside Hubei, the epidemiological history of most diagnosed people has been investigated in depth. How many infections in these data are caused by flying or high-speed rail? How much does it happen during the waiting period at the airport or train station? It is more effective to scientifically analyze the data collected in various places, then assign different risk ratings to different places and different vehicles according to their conclusions, and finally introduce corresponding measures based on the level of risk.
As for the current one-size-fits-all approach in some places, it is equivalent to putting all the pressure on the grassroots. So we will see that, on the one hand, the staff of the residential property and the residents’ committees are very hard these days, and they need to implement isolation measures and traffic restrictions against the wind and rain; on the other hand, they can easily become the actual bearers of various contradictions .
For example, some owners may propose, where does the legal basis for restricting free access by neighborhood committees come from? Some companies may be bitter. Why is the resumption plan stuck at the neighborhood committee? If hundreds of millions of labor are isolated in various communities, it will be difficult for enterprises in various places to resume work, the domestic aviation industry and the hotel industry will be completely paralyzed, and various domestic and international exchanges will be completely blocked. This is an unbearable price for China’s economy and society. At present, the Chinese economy is in a state of halt, and at least one trillion yuan is lost in one month. If this situation lasts for 2-3 months, many SMEs will go out of business, which will also increase a large number of unemployed people and seriously affect social stability.
From the news reports in the past few days, many government departments have begun to change their minds and have adopted more practical prevention and control measures. For example, Jiangxi Province issued the No. 4 Announcement, stipulating that the epidemic prevention and control quarantine points or testing stations at the entrances and exits of national highways, provincial highways, and highways should be completely cancelled between various regions in the province, and interception and persuasion of non-serious epidemic areas from all regions should be strictly prohibited vehicle. For another example, in Hangzhou, in order to alleviate the difficulty of recruiting enterprises and the difficulty for employees to come to Hangzhou, the railway department will be consulted to provide special trains to some provinces and cities with relatively stable epidemics and concentrated employment in Hangzhou.
The purpose of the above measures is to eliminate the excessive closure caused by the epidemic prevention and control, and to reopen all links connecting the Chinese economy. One of China’s important achievements since reform and opening up has been the formation of an industrial chain with strong competitive advantages around the world. In this case, all parties have responsibilities and obligations to ensure the smooth flow of all links in the industry chain. In the entire industry chain, if one link fails, it may cause the entire chain to collapse.
Take the mask problem that everyone has been concerned about recently as an example. On the one hand, there is a huge demand for masks by both residents and enterprises. Many companies worry that the insufficient number of masks may affect the normal operation; but anotherOn the other hand, if employees of mask manufacturing companies cannot resume work in a timely manner, or if upstream and downstream companies such as raw material suppliers and transportation companies are facing a shortage of manpower, the supply of masks will be difficult to guarantee, which may affect the resumption of work in other companies. Form a vicious circle.
If the gap in the number of masks is only a relatively short-term issue, in the long run, if foreign trade-related industries are unable to deliver on time due to the delay in resuming work, even existing transactions can use “force majeure” as a defense reason. From the perspective of foreign customers, it will inevitably lead to the idea of rediscovering suppliers in other countries to replace Chinese companies. Once such an epidemic spreads so quickly, the blow to China’s manufacturing industry will be more terrible than trade friction.
Taking into account these risks, government departments at all levels, including the National Health and Health Commission, will propose that reducing the impact of the epidemic on people’s production and life is an equally important goal as preventing and controlling the epidemic. And to achieve this goal, we must let the concept of seeking truth from facts and scientific analysis penetrate into the specific work of each community, and we must not allow obstacles to appear in the entrances and exits of the large numbers of returnees.
At present, each locality has caused opaque and uncertain information, making reworkers worry. If one link is not smooth, the other links will also be affected. To this end, the state needs to coordinate and clearly introduce policies on restrictions and segregation, and must not allow unreasonable measures by local governments to hinder the overall situation of chess.
Finally, what we want to say is that zero risk and zero infection is an ideal goal that everyone hopes to achieve, but from the reality, the goal we should pursue is to maintain the normal order of society and economy, The epidemic is controlled at the lowest possible level. The sacrifice of everything in pursuit of extreme “shock” measures is not the comprehensive victory we really need, not even a disastrous victory. We hope that the huge effort from top to bottom can become more restrained and effective, and create more favorable conditions for the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy.