The article is from the public account: , Author: spy Apollo, the original title:”

The market is about to change. ”

On Friday evening, the SFC issued the latest version of the new refinancing rules. Compared with the consultation draft released in November last year, this time it was once again more than expected.

First explain briefly what refinancing is. In simple terms, it is the act of a listed company financing again after the IPO. Changes in the refinancing policy directly affect the asset structure of listed companies and further affect the operations of listed companies. Therefore, the changes in this policy have a very, very large impact on the market.

This change has two core points:

  • Release conditions: It means more companies can come out to raise funds.

    • Pricing method & relaxation of the target: it means that the company can raise funds more easily .

      How does it work? Let ’s take a look at the detailed changes:

      • Easier issuance conditions: cancellation or relaxation of various asset / liability ratios / profitability / issue period limit.

        • Increase of discount rate: it must be issued in the market before, and it can only be done through inquiry. Issuance is now priced in advance, and the base price is reduced from 10% to 20%.

          • Recruitment target relaxation: previously targeted up to 10, now it can be up to 35. There were various reductions and locking restrictions after the previous increase in purchases, and now it is greatly relaxed .

            For more differences, please see the following table:

            The direct result of this new regulation is that the fixed increase market is about to usher in another blowout. Several companies have announced new fixed increase plans last night. Among them is the CMO company Gloriain, which I have been following. The direct pricing is 80% for nearly 20 trading days, and it raised 2.3 billion funds from Gaofeng Capital.

            It is foreseeable that we will see more and more such cases in the next period of time, especially those companies that have already received the approval letter.

            This time it was called “New Regulations”, but in fact “Reinstatement”, which directly denied the new regulations that the former Chairman 641 introduced in February 2017.

            At the time, the core purpose of the rules was to avoid low-priced arbitrage by major shareholders and institutions of listed companies. Now they have all been overturned, and further, the reserve price has been reduced directly from 10% to 20%.

            After the launch of the New Deal in 17 years, the scale of private placements has shrunk sharply, falling rapidly from the peak of 1.07 trillion yuan in 2016 to 122.9 billion yuan in 2019.

            Here are a few comments on the new regulations:

            1. Is it positive or negative?

            This should be the most important question for most people. Before saying good or bad, let me give you two ideas:

            • Refinancing restrictions are loosened, making it easier for more companies that need funds to raise money.

              • Refinancing restrictions are loosened, so that funds originally flowing into the secondary market flow to the fixed-income market.

                Looking at logic 1, you will find it is good. Looking at Logic 2, you will find it bearish again. So is it positive or negative? In fact, it does not depend on the policy itself, but on the current market state, how the market will interpret this policy.

                2. What is the market view?

                Compared with the market’s fear of blood loss in the market when the first refinancing easing was proposed in October 18, the overall risk appetite of the market is much more optimistic. When the GEM climbed out of the trough and reached new highs, and its performance continued to improve, the market was more worried about whether the performance could continue to be bullish .

                Regardless of long-term dilution, loosening the refinancing policy can enable growth-starved companies to obtain more funds in the short term to develop their own businesses and acquire external assets. Continuation.

                It can be clearly seen from the historical data that the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions after 13 years is very obvious for the growth of profits of growing companies.


                3. How likely is it to be a mad cow again?

                After reading the previous point, many people think that the ChiNext will be fully competitive again. I think this is wrong. For most investors, the bubbles brought by the GEM M & A cattle in 13-15 years and the later stock disasters have profound memories. Such memories will obviously make more investors cautious.

                In addition, a major background of the original merger and acquisition of cattle was that the IPO was suspended and the financing channels of unlisted companies were blocked, which made many small market value stocks at that time have high shell values. Now the number of stocks in the entire market is close to 4,000, and there are more than 1,000 companies with a market value of less than 3 billion.

                4. What industry sector is good for this time?

                • Brokers: Obviously this time the policy is directly beneficial to brokers that have done well in investment banking, such as CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment and CICC.

                  • Acquired 150 companies whose approvals have not yet been increased: these companies will be greatly improved after the new regulations The possibility of raising funds. (I found a list compiled by Shen Wanhongyuan’s strategy, because it is too long to post it here. If you want to see it, you can reply in the dialog box ” Fixed increase “to get)

                    • Businesses that have developed well and are relatively short of money recently: the most typical is the current boom Technology section of the cycle. The era of chicken and dog ascension has passed, and the era of careful selection has come.


                      5. Who will benefit most this time?

                      I would like to say that the biggest benefit of this policy is also the major shareholders and executives of listed companies, as well as institutions. After this new regulation, they got the opportunity of crazy arbitrage (Yes, I use madness) . When the base price was 10% off, the market actually felt unfair, but now it goes even further and is directly 20% off. < / p>

                      6. What about retail investors?

                      Keep an eye on the price of fixed-increasing shares, and take advantage of large shareholders in a timely manner: Although large shareholders and institutions generally buy stocks at a 20% discount, the stock market often jumps up and down, and accidentally the market price will be lower than the large shareholders and institutions. Price situation, if this situation overlaps you are optimistic about this company, it is a good time, I used to often use this to buy stocks.

                      Do not buy companies that issue additional shares; additional offerings or mergers and acquisitions are a neutral event in their own right. Whether they are good or bad depends on whether the purpose of the additional offerings and mergers can make the company better. So, Please keep your eyes open and try not to hold up those hot spots.

                      Participation through the fixed increase fund: This is a species that has been very popular in the past few years and gradually disappeared in the past two years. It is expected that after this time, it will return to the arena. These funds only do one thing, which is to buy stocks at “20% off”. Ordinary retail customers cannot directly participate in the fixed increase, but can indirectly participate through the fixed increase fund.

                      7. The free lunch of convertible bonds is gone

                      I wrote an article “The Opportunity to Pick Up More Than 4,000 RMB in a Year”, which states that as long as you have no brain to purchase newly issued convertible bonds, you can earn more than 4,000 RMB a year.

                      After the implementation of the new policy, listed companies will start to resume fixed increases and abandon convertible bonds. This free lunch will disappear.

                      It’s a good thing that the market has changed.


                      The article is from the public account: Apollo (ID: gh_de6424661304) author: spy Apollo