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LPR is generated by common quotations from 18 commercial banks . The calculation method is to remove one of the highest price and the lowest price, and then calculate the average, and recalculate the price on the 20th of each month. In other words, the interest rate is market-based and will either fall or rise based on supply and demand.

However, although the central bank cannot directly intervene in LPR, LF operation indirectly affects LPR .

MLF refers to Intermediate Lending Facility , which is a monetary policy tool of the central bank, which can be understood as the reference interest rate for the bank to lend money to banks, and LPR is the reference interest rate for banks to lend money to customers. To a large extent, MLF is the anchor of LPR and the basic coordinate that determines LPR.

So, The reduction of MLF interest rates is of great significance, and the actual impact on the market is equivalent to reducing interest rates.

Although the range of 10 basis points is not large, the significance of the signal means that the interest rate cut cycle has begun. Today the stock market has risen sharply. The Shanghai stock index rose 2.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.98%, and the innovation index rose 3.72%.

Also, the deputy governor of the central bank has stated that the MLF interest rate and the LPR interest rate will fall simultaneously, which means that the LPR interest rate on the 20th is also expected to decrease by 10 basis points. It is a big plus for the property market.

If the LPR interest rate is reduced by 10 basis points, then the mortgage interest rate is expected to fall from 4.8% to 4.7%. This is a breakthrough in the bailout boundary. “> (Warm Enterprise) , entered a new stage to C (stimulating demand)

Once the stability of the property market enters the C phase, it will be very favorable for the demand side. Next, discount interest rates, lower down payment ratios, deductions and deductions, etc. can be expected.

Market participants are generally bullish on the central bank’s interest rate cuts in the future, and believe that there will be at least 15 basis points of interest rate cuts during the year. Whether the property market, which has been frozen for three or four years, will restart again, it is worth paying attention to.

However, I would like to remind you that whether the interest rate cut means a big water release? Not really.

First of all, The central bank ’s “interest rate cuts” are very prudent. This time it was only reduced by 10 basis points. Historically, the central bank ’s standard rate cut was 25 basis points. The reason why the central bank is so rampant is that it is full of confidence in the current economic situation, and on the other hand it does not want to send a signal of “flooding in floods” and does not want to cause asset pricesStrongly stimulating, especially housing prices.

Secondly, from the perspective of the trend, although the central bank has been lowering the RRR and interest rates in the past two years, At the same time, the speed of printing banknotes has also decreased. The speed has dropped from about 20% of the highest peak to about 8%, and even dropped to less than 7% in 2018, which means that the currency multiplier effect has been greatly reduced, and inflationary pressure is not as great as before. Therefore, whether it is a “flooding flood” can not only depend on interest rates, but also on the growth rate of M2.

Third, low interest rates and inflation are not an inevitable causal relationship, they are just relevant relationships over a certain period of time .

For example, in some developed countries like Japan and Europe, interest rates have remained low or even zero for a long time, but these countries have not experienced large-scale inflation, and the property market and stock market have continued to slump. What is the reason? When a country enters the stage of development, the people’s desire to borrow money for consumption and investment will decrease. When there are fewer people who borrow money, the interest rate of banks will naturally be low. At this time, low interest rates and stable prices can be balanced.

At present, China ’s per capita GDP has exceeded US $ 10,000, and it has officially entered the level of a middle-income country. The infrastructure is highly developed and people ’s material lives are highly enriched. At this stage, the stimulating effect of low interest rates on CPI and asset prices is much weaker than 10 years ago, the era of “floating as soon as interest rates are cut” has passed.

Of course, even so, the interest rate cut operation has already started, which is a very good signal for the property market to stabilize. It has been previously analyzed that within two or three months after the epidemic is over, the property market will usher in a double bottom of transaction volume and price. Gift packages, the market will bottom out and usher in a wave of small spring.

In the long run, the era of low interest rates is the general trend, and real estate in large cities, especially central cities, is still resistant to ordinary people.Bloat is preferred.

However, as the GDP growth rate and M2 growth rate are gradually decreasing, it is difficult for the house price growth rate to stand alone in the United States. Finally, it returns to a solid defensive asset rather than a high-yielding offensive asset.

This article comes from WeChat public account: City War (ID: sunbushu123) , author: Sun unfamiliar