“Vague correctness” often encounters challenges, but basically does not make fatal strategic mistakes.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “People and God work together” (ID: tongyipaocha) , author People and God work together.
Unreliable Musk
Recently, Elon Musk can be described as proud of the spring breeze. Tesla’s stock price has fallen nearly six months ago, and it has tripled in two months because of record-breaking profits and a good situation for the Shanghai plant’s production and booking situation. Became the world’s second largest car company after market value.
Before, Tesla was a well-known company with the most short-selling power among U.S. stocks and the company with the most divergence on Wall Street. Many analysts of well-known institutions believe: “A company whose delivery quantity cannot be determined in the next quarter, but everyone is convinced that it can do a great job in 2020 or 2025 … no matter how much Tesla’s share price reaches, It doesn’t make sense, I think its value is zero. “
It’s no wonder that many people feel that Musk is unreliable and often makes random promises. New models are pushed back and forth every time, resulting in the company’s delayed cash flow and improvement.
But these people are deceived by their own impressions.
A fan counted the fulfillment of Musk’s previous commitments, and found that although Musk’s promises are often “jumped”, especially important promises, the delay is up to two years, but the problem is The reason is that most of the promises have been fulfilled, especially those crucial commitments on new models, cool features, and increased productivity.
This report reminded me of the “fuzzy correct” series of articles written last year. This is an important series of articles last year. At that time, we promised you to find some cases. Tesla happened to be a “perfect case.” “.
Because “fuzzy correctness” often encounters challenges, but it basically does not make fatal strategic mistakes.
Choose “B”, the most difficult test paper.
Review my choices in LifeChoice: Rather be fuzzy correct, not correct fuzzy The article mentioned in the article is adapted from Buffett’s “fuzzy correct” theory:
Imagine that you are in the jungle in the thick fog, and only faintly discern the direction through the sun. You find that the mud is muddy in the right direction at this moment. I don’t know what’s ahead.
Choose this path. In the short term, you may not be right, so it is “fuzzy”, but you are always walking in the right direction, so it is “fuzzy correct”.
There is a road in the opposite direction. Choose this road. In the short term, you will go very well, so it is “correct.” But you don’t know where this road will lead you, so it It’s “correct fuzzy”.
In the expression of “XX XX”, the attributive at the front is the representation, and the central word at the back is the essence. Vague correctness, “fuzzy” is the appearance, “correct” is the essence; and correct fuzzy, “correct” is the appearance, “fuzzy” is the essence.
The reason is easy to accept, but when encountering practical problems, most people will choose the opposite direction.
For example, I said in this article: Choose “Vague correct”, you must accept a lower success rate.
Many people left a message saying, right? Shouldn’t “fuzzy correctness” be a higher success rate?
Nothing against it. To give the simplest example, there are two students in Grade A and Grade B. The admission results are similar, because each time the school allows students to choose questions of different difficulty, “Class A” picks the easy test paper each time, and “Class B” All difficult papers can be imagined. Most of A’s scores exceed B’s, but in the end, B’s score must improve faster.
The reason is that when most people think about whether to do something, the most commonly used basis is success rate, and of course they pick the easy things.
For most of the daily work, it is definitely more important to complete the work on time. Failure to complete the work on time is a failure, so Musk gives everyone the impression that “often failures”, and the rocket launch fails. These cars often “put their cannons”, which gave everyone an “unreliable” impression, leading to a bunch of Wall Street hedge funds short Tesla-these people are not “keyboard men”, but with real money Tesla will go bankrupt.
In fact, Musk often “jumps” because he is the “classmate B” who chooses the hardest test paper every time.
For example, if an electric vehicle needs to run faster, it must be designed to be lighter. Materials experts tell Musk that the most suitable material is of course aluminum alloy, but this thing is immature, easy to break, and easy to crack. Well painted.
Musk said: OK, then use aluminum alloy, “As for the shortcomings you are talking about, the problems you want to solve.”
So the launch of the new model was delayed again, but people got lighter and faster as a result.Sports car.
The first feature of “fuzzy correctness” is a goal that is large enough to provide direction guidance. The so-called “correctness” is to know what you really want. Don’t know exactly how to achieve it.
However, this example makes people feel that only difficult things are “fuzzy correct”.
This is not the case.
Reliable user needs
A few days ago, I saw someone on Weibo saying that now driving out of the car, I suddenly wished that my car also had the “biochemical weapon defense mode” of Tesla X.
Think of this term for the first time. Do you think Musk is making a fool again? At the time of the Tesla X presentation, Musk described his filtering system in detail, repeatedly emphasizing that these filters can make the air entering the cabin meet medical standards and named it “biochemical weapon defense mode.”
Everyone present laughed, everyone didn’t care, and thought it was a marketing gimmick.
But Musk is serious. Those fancy features that have no practical use in the eyes of others, because of his insistence, often lead to new product launches.
However, in 2017, a California fire, everyone suddenly thought of the prescient of this feature. An American car owner thanked Musk in writing, saying that the “biochemical defense” function had saved their entire lives in the California fire.
Many people think that this example reflects Musk’s vision and is good at tapping consumer needs, but I don’t think so.
No normal person will think that their car needs “biochemical defense mode” until you get into your car with the fear of viruses.
So Henry ● Ford said, “If you ask people what kind of transportation they need in the days when cars weren’t invented, people will only tell you that he wants a faster carriage most.”
Consumer demand is of course “correct”, but it is “correct obscurity”, because people can change their yearning for life at any time. Yesterday, they still “do n’t eat a bite even if they starve to death.” Today it becomes With “True Incense”, yesterday was still “Quiet days”, today it has become “Living to death”.
Electric vehicles are not new inventions. The previous major manufacturers have also developed many successful models, but their “success” was eventually overturned by a “outsider” because traditional car manufacturers knew too much about consumer needs. Now, they know that users do not need any “biochemical defense model”. They also know that consumers have limited patience. Once the launch date of a new model is delayed, they are snatched by competitors, so they dare not take the risk of using unsure new technology.
Think about whether our new product development model is like this: I found a small pain point in the user’s use process, took the lead to meet, and got sales
Review my choices in LifeChoice: Rather be fuzzy correct, not correct fuzzy The article mentioned in the article is adapted from Buffett’s “fuzzy correct” theory:
Imagine that you are in the jungle in the thick fog, and only faintly discern the direction through the sun. You find that the mud is muddy in the right direction at this moment. I don’t know what’s ahead.
Choose this path. In the short term, you may not be right, so it is “fuzzy”, but you are always walking in the right direction, so it is “fuzzy correct”.
There is a road in the opposite direction. Choose this road. In the short term, you will go very well, so it is “correct.” But you don’t know where this road will lead you, so it It’s “correct fuzzy”.
In the expression of “XX XX”, the attributive at the front is the representation, and the central word at the back is the essence. Vague correctness, “fuzzy” is the appearance, “correct” is the essence; and correct fuzzy, “correct” is the appearance, “fuzzy” is the essence.
The reason is easy to accept, but when encountering practical problems, most people will choose the opposite direction.
For example, I said in this article: Choose “Vague correct”, you must accept a lower success rate.
Many people left a message saying, right? Shouldn’t “fuzzy correctness” be a higher success rate?
Nothing against it. To give the simplest example, there are two students in Grade A and Grade B. The admission results are similar, because each time the school allows students to choose questions of different difficulty, “Class A” picks the easy test paper each time, and “Class B” All difficult papers can be imagined. Most of A’s scores exceed B’s, but in the end, B’s score must improve faster.
The reason is that when most people think about whether to do something, the most commonly used basis is success rate, and of course they pick the easy things.
For most of the daily work, it is definitely more important to complete the work on time. Failure to complete the work on time is a failure, so Musk gives everyone the impression that “often failures”, and the rocket launch fails. These cars often “put their cannons”, which gave everyone an “unreliable” impression, leading to a bunch of Wall Street hedge funds short Tesla-these people are not “keyboard men”, but with real money Tesla will go bankrupt.
In fact, Musk often “jumps” because he is the “classmate B” who chooses the hardest test paper every time.
For example, if an electric vehicle needs to run faster, it must be designed to be lighter. Materials experts tell Musk that the most suitable material is of course aluminum alloy, but this thing is immature, easy to break, and easy to crack. Well painted.
Musk said: OK, then use aluminum alloy, “As for the shortcomings you are talking about, the problems you want to solve.”
So the launch of the new model was delayed again, but people got lighter and faster as a result.Sports car.
The first feature of “fuzzy correctness” is a goal that is large enough to provide direction guidance. The so-called “correctness” is to know what you really want. Don’t know exactly how to achieve it.
However, this example makes people feel that only difficult things are “fuzzy correct”.
This is not the case.