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The iPhone 5c and iPhone SE are listed here because they have no successor products.

(Source: network data, market capitalization)

The development of iPhone can be divided into three stages:

Single iPhone era: From the original iPhone in 2007 to the iPhone 5s in 2013;

Dual iPhone era: From iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus in 2014 to iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus in 2016;

Three iPhone eras: From iPhone 8, iPhone8 Plus, iPhone X in 2017 to iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, iPhone 11 Pro Max in 2019.

It can be clearly seen that the overall increase in the price of the iPhone began in the “three iPhone era” in 2017.

Before 2011-2016, the basic modelsiPhone prices have remained at $ 649.

(Source: network data; market capitalization)

In 2017, the basic iPhone 8 was priced at $ 699, which is $ 50 more expensive than the previous iPhone 7; the high-profile iPhone 8 Plus was $ 30 more expensive than the iPhone 7 Plus, reaching $ 799; newly launched The iPhone X sells for as much as $ 999.

(iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus released in 2017)

At the same time that prices have become higher, so have costs.

According to the data of IHS Markit (INFO.O) , the cost of iPhone X reaches USD 370.25, which is much higher than the previous iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus’s 219.80, 270.88 dollars; iPhone X’s material cost accounted for 37.1% of the selling price, which is also higher than the iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus’s 33.9%, 35.2%.

Since the high-profile iPhone was launched in 2014, the material cost ratio has continued to rise; the basic model has been at least since 2016 when the iPhone 7 was released, and the material cost ratio has started to rise significantly.

iPhone XS Max is the most costly model in recent years, with a total material cost of up to $ 390, accounting for 35.5% of the selling price.

The material cost data of the latest iPhone in 2019 has not been found for the time being.

(Source: IHS Markit)

(Source: IHS Markit, market capitalization)

Second, the “price magic spell” for iPhone

Let ’s take a look at iPhone sales data.

First quarter of each fiscal year (Note: Apple ’s fiscal year is from the beginning of October of the previous year to the end of September of the same year) is Apple 9 The first quarter after the monthly new product launch. Coupled with the impact of the Christmas holiday, seasonal sales accounted for a large proportion of the yearFor example, in the past two years, it has averaged 36.8% of the annual sales.

The “Three iPhone Times” opened in 2017, which corresponds to the first quarter of fiscal 2018. (Note: The quarter started in October 2017) .

It can be seen that from this time to the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2018, iPhone sales continued to accelerate year-on-year growth, but sales almost did not increase, reflecting an increase in the average iPhone selling price .

Following the first quarter of fiscal year 2019, Apple further increased the selling prices of three newly released iPhones, but sales and sales fell by 11.5% and 14.9%, respectively, and fell further in the second quarter.

A similar situation happened once three years ago.

In fiscal 2015, Apple entered the “dual iPhone era”. Although the iPhone 6 did not increase in price compared to the 5s, the new iPhone 6 Plus was $ 100 more expensive, thereby driving up the average selling price.

This caused the sales growth rate at the time to be significantly higher than the sales growth rate.

And the next fiscal year 2016 is also a decline in sales and sales.

(Note: Apple will no longer announce sales since fiscal year 2019, here are IDC data)

Is this the iPhone’s “price curse”?

(iPhone X starting at nearly $ 1,000)

Three, detailed inventory process this time bottoming

Back to fiscal 2019, this performance decline.

As early as January 2 before the release of the quarterly report, Apple lowered its guidance for the quarter and gave investors a shot. Among them, the revenue guidance decreased from the original 89 billion to 93 billion US dollars to 84 billion US dollars, a decrease of 4.9% over the same period last year.

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Cook explained that this was due to lower-than-expected sales of the new iPhone, especially in China.

On January 3, the following day, Apple’s stock price plummeted by 10.21%.

Feng Yunjun thought that Apple’s time might bePassed. Since then, the news of Apple’s mobile phone price cuts has continued.

First, the price of e-commerce platforms in January dropped by more than 1,000 yuan.

(Source: Beijing News)

Later, there were two rounds of price reductions in February and March, and some e-commerce platforms even reduced prices by more than 2,000 yuan.

(Source: Beijing News)

This time, Apple’s stock price has resumed its upward trend.

(Source: Oriental Fortune choice)

In May 2019, Apple released its second fiscal quarter results.The irons can read the “Record of the Second Quarterly Conference Call of Apple” translated by Feng Yunjun at the time.

In this quarter, Apple’s revenue fell by 5.1% year-on-year. Cook repeatedly mentioned price cuts and trade-in for new in the conference call.

At this time, it was almost the turning point of Apple’s performance.

After that, something unexpected happened!

In September, Apple released the latest iPhone 11 series. The Yuba lens and the lack of 5G have caused everyone to spit, but the pre-sale sales of the e-commerce platform have quadrupled!

(Source: First Financial)

Just when we thought this was just a temporary phenomenon, Apple announced the first quarter of fiscal year 2020: RevenueIt reached a record US $ 91.919 billion, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and net profit reached US $ 22.236 billion, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year.

The elephant started dancing again.

Feng Yunjun laments that the former apple is back.

Four or two growth crises, recovery is different

Is fiscal year 2019 just a repeat of three years ago?

Let’s take the Fengyunjun’s space-time shuttle and go back for a look.

Apple’s quarterly revenue has experienced 2 negative growths in the first quarter of fiscal 2014 so far :

The first time is from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016, with quarter-on-year growth rates of -12.8%, -14.6%, and -9.0%, respectively;

The second time is the first quarter to the second quarter of fiscal 2019, with quarter-on-year growth rates of -4.5% and -5.1%, respectively.

At the same time, iPhone’s quarterly sales accounted for about 60% of Apple’s total revenue.

Moreover, when the iPhone’s quarterly sales growth rate is positive, Apple’s revenue growth rate is also positive, and vice versa.

This reflects the pulling effect of the iPhone on Apple’s overall performance.

The only exception occurred in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2019. IPhone sales growth in these two fiscal quarters were -11.8% and -9.2% year-on-year, while Apple’s revenue growth was 1.0% and 1.8% respectively.

It’s not the iPhone that drives performance in this period. What could it be?

Taking out the quarterly growth rate of segment revenue in the past two fiscal years, we can see that there are three businesses that have maintained positive growth in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2019: wear, household and accessories revenue Service revenue, and Mac .

Combined with the revenue share of the third quarter of fiscal 2019, wearable, household and accessories revenue accounted for 10.3%, a growth rate of 48%; service revenue accounted for 21.3%, a growth rate of 12.6%; Mac accounted for 10.8%, The growth rate was 10.7%.

The first quarter of FY2019 growth will be wearables, households and accessories revenues, followed by service revenues. Feng Yunjun will mention these two businesses later.

(AirPods Pro, one of Apple’s wearables)

Three years ago, the 2016 fiscal year also had a continuous negative growth, but it was the iPhone that eventually came out of the trough.

For example, in the first quarter of fiscal 2017, Apple’s revenue growth rate has just returned to a positive number. IPhone revenue share in the quarter