The article is from the public number: Earth Knowledge Agency (ID: diqiuzhishiju) , author: Sven Fan seniors.
Recent news about the US flu season has caused domestic public opinionConcern, just one flu has caused tens of millions of infections and tens of thousands of deaths. The US government has not taken effective measures to stop the flu, and the international media have not paid attention to it as much as the new coronavirus.
It seems that we have not correctly understood the power of influenza before
The flu in the United States is indeed more severe this time, but its lethality and transmission rate are lower than that of new type of coronary pneumonia. Aiming at the flu, a surveillance system has been established in the United States, and there are more effective treatments such as vaccines, so it has not caused much concern and panic. And its terrible death data comes from its statistical method-if this statistical method is used to estimate the number of deaths from Chinese flu and the number of deaths in the United States over the years, we will find that life is far more fragile than we think, and modern medicine is still developing. space.
The situation in the United States flu
There are several pathogens of influenza in the United States this time. Among the positive specimens for influenza surveillance, the higher ones are H1N1pdm09, H3N2 and two influenza B viruses. Several viruses took turns, bringing a more severe flu season to the United States.
Summary of test results conducted by the US National Public Health Laboratory:
Image from CDC
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hereinafter referred to as CDC) , United States 2019-2020 influenza 26 to 36 million people became ill during the season, of which 12 to 17 million went to the hospital to see the disease, 250,000 to 440,000 people were admitted to the hospital, and about 14,000 to 36,000 people died of influenza .
These data are estimates based on the US Flu Surveillance System.
Picture from CDC
This kind of data is not uncommon for the United States with a population of only 320 million, but the number of patients is quite considerable when the flu is high in autumn and winter, and the peak number of patients mostly occurs from December to February of the following year. This period is also called the flu season.
Picture from Wikipedia / BlankMap-World6
Because the flu season is indispensable every year, most people may not care too much, and they will recover in the next two weeks without using a doctor. However, it may be dangerous or even fatal for those over 65 years old, children, pregnant women, asthma patients, diabetic patients, heart disease patients, and AIDS patients who are weakly resistant to complications.
Picture from Wikipedia / Iv0202
Also, There are two more particularly vulnerable populations in the United States. They are Indians and Inuit . This is because historically, the population on the American continent was relatively isolated and did not domesticate important infectious disease hosts such as large livestock. (Alpacas and llamas Europeans were semi-domesticated and did not spread widely when they invaded) , so their resistance to infectious diseases was poor. Not only did more than 90% of the population died during the colonial era, they are still vulnerable Sense crowd.
The official report issued by the CDC also clearly pointed out the susceptible groups, and I hope that these two groups can take precautions seriously
Picture from CDC
But note that CDC statistics are not accurate. In most parts of the United States, the flu does not need to be reported statistically. After all, this infectious disease has a high incidence, a low mortality rate, and the general public does not care. Therefore, CDC collects data through the US influenza surveillance system covering 8.5% of the US population, using mathematics The calculation of the model resulted in the above numerical range.
Influenza Epidemic Prevention System in the United States
Data statistics are only part of the United States’ own influenza surveillance system, which is the basis for influenza warning and processing.
CDC’s monitoring modules are broadly divided into virological surveillance, outpatient disease surveillance, influenza geographic spread summary, inpatient surveillance, and mortality surveillance. These require the cooperation of different organizations in different regions to achieve effective surveillance.
Taking the report of the sixth week of 2020 released by the CDC surveillance system as an example, you can see the flu geography as assessed by state and regional epidemiologists Distribution
Image from CDC
For example, virological surveillance works primarily with WHO laboratories and the U.S. Respiratory and Intestinal Disease Surveillance System, using more than 400 laboratories covering 50 states, Puerto Rico, and Guam to focus on monitoring viral specimens and patient affiliation. (age group or ethnicity) .
In short, the CDC cooperates with state-level health departments, medical research institutions, hospitals and other units to collect and organize a large amount of data, and submits an easy-to-read influenza report every week to the official website for public inspection.
Each weekly monitoring report has detailed diagrams and explanations from viruses, clinics, age groups, and areas of transmission
Picture from CDC
Of course, setting up a monitoring system is not only for obtaining data. If you can know when and where the flu is happening, monitor the type of influenza virus, and the number of patients, you can do early prevention Prepare, update vaccines and medicines in a timely manner and alert the public early.
CDC works according to a large number of laboratories of influenza viruses every year to better understand the existing situation,
Precisely predict possible future conditions and prevent them in advance
Picture from CDC
Of course, a test of this scale has made certain achievements. First, it has promoted the development of American medicine, especially vaccines. Second, open and transparent information disclosure methods are also conducive to timely access to information and preventive measures.
Influenza prevention, vaccines play an important role in the United States,Can be compared with domestic antibiotics . But antibiotics are prescription drugs and require a prescription to buy, and over-the-counter antiviral drugs are more common.
It takes about two weeks after the vaccination to prevent the occurrence of influenza in the body. It is also critical to choose the time for vaccination.
Picture from Wikipedia / shutterstock.com
When vaccinating, the CDC recommends that children be vaccinated every year when they are more than six months old, especially for high-risk groups. The focus of vaccine prevention is on the number of people vaccinated, and the more vaccines the better. However, from time to time, people’s opposition to vaccines will indirectly affect the preventive effect of vaccines.
Vaccination rates for infants and seniors are much higher than young people
Data from: CDC
But vaccines don’t solve all problems. Because the flu statistics are not accurate, when the flu has spread, vaccines seem to be stretched. Ordinary clinics and other institutions are still needed to solve the problem.
while After accidentally suffering from the flu, the causes of death of the cases are actually different, and often not because of the flu itself, but because of the combined effect of the disease or the complications caused by the flu . Moreover, the flu drug treatment is highly targeted, and there is no magic drug to treat complications, which is also a major reason for the high number of deaths.
Under the support of a large amount of data and facts, the elderly are more likely to suffer from other chronic diseases and have less resistance.
The mortality rate is higher after infection with influenza virus. There are also dose and focus considerations for a 65-year-old flu vaccine.
Image via Shutterstock / Image Point Fr
For example, Redesivir is a potent drug against Ebola virus. It can also inhibit the replication of MERS virus in epithelial cells. It is still in the clinical trial stage whether new coronaviruses that are also coronaviruses are effective. It may not work well against flu complications.
Why not pay as much attention as New Coronary Pneumonia
The amazing number of deaths in the United States in the 2019-2020 season is not a single case. If you look up the death toll counted by the CDC in recent years, you will find that the seasonal flu in the United States is not much different from previous years. The number of deaths is not unique.
Years and years, although the number of deaths has not decreased significantly, with the development of the health system, I believe that better prevention can be achieved.
Data source: CDC
Behind the numbers are the characteristics of statistical methods.
The statistical method of CDC is not to directly count the recorded cases of direct deaths due to influenza, but to estimate based on the test data. CDC’s definition of death due to influenza is also very special. If a case dies from complications caused by influenza, such as pneumonia and heart failure, it will be counted as a case of death from influenza. It counts deaths from flu-related excess respiratory diseases.
This reflects the idea that the harmfulness of the flu is underestimated.
There are a lot of over-the-counter cold medicines on the shelves. Many patients with less severe symptoms will try to buy the medicines themselves first.
Image by Khairil Azhar Junos / Shutterstock.com
Some susceptible people often have chronic diseases, which cause complications after being infected with the flu. Because the complications are often more serious, doctors will focus on treating the complications and may not monitor the cold. Eventually, if a patient dies unfortunately, the cause of death will be blamed for complications, not the flu, but it is most likely caused by the fluAnd then. It can be seen that the use of this statistical method by the CDC is based on the correction of the underestimation of influenza harm.
Although the proportion of flu is not large, flu can often aggravate heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients
Data source: CDC
A recent study in China indicates that if this method is used to estimate the number of deaths from influenza-related excess respiratory diseases in China, an average of 88,000 deaths per year from the 2010-2011 flu season to the 2014-2015 flu season 80% of them are over 60 years old. Again, this does not mean that so many people will die directly from flu in China each year. (Direct deaths are only a few hundred people per year) , but according to the model Estimates include the number of deaths due to various complications.
And People pay more attention to new coronary pneumonia than to flu. The reasons are diverse .
The difference between new coronavirus pneumonia and influenza is a new disease that is more contagious and has a higher mortality rate. It is different from diseases that are known and have formed a fixed response plan. Our understanding of influenza is deep enough, and the knowledge of new coronaviruses is still in the process of deepening.
The reduction of suspected cases indicates that the epidemic control has been effective, and I hope this road of exploration ends soon
As of 2/20 23:00, the picture comes from Tencent Health
Objectively, neocoronary pneumonia is indeed much more dangerous than influenza. RO for seasonal influenza (infectious rate due to no human intervention) is 1.3, and the RO of neocoronary pneumonia is 2.2 or more (The data given by different researchers are different, so conservative numbers are used here) .
The lethal rate of flu in the United States is about 0.054%. Moreover, many people can heal themselves. The mortality rate of new coronary pneumonia in China is currently changing dynamically, which is higher than this figure.
Subjectively, Continuous reports on the fear of the unknown have also strengthened our attention to new coronary pneumonia. After all, people always have infinite curiosity and fear of the unknown. This is not a bad thing, at least it will allow us to better protect ourselves, and also give us a popular science and health education class.
On the other side, foreign (especially in the United States) There are also many media reports about the situation in the United States. Some doctors use the media to remind Americans Instead of fearing new coronary pneumonia, it is better to pay attention to the flu epidemic that is imminent, pay attention to hygiene, and vaccinate.
Follow this attention
News source: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-01-31/flu-coronavirus
We Chinese should indeed pay more attention to the seemingly harmless flu after the end of the new coronary pneumonia . Life will continue, and the flu will come season by season. With the development of China’s vaccine industry, maybe the flu vaccine will also become a choice of epidemic prevention in addition to paying attention to health and strengthening exercise.
Modern medicine is not omnipotent. There is no way to bring people back to life, but it is obviously unreasonable to turn to metaphysics for obsolescence. It is irrational to think that the disease is abnormal and that the outbreak is caused by someone. Just as influenza vaccine vaccination technical guidelines use new models to calculate deaths, recognizing the limitations of modern medicine and slowly summarizing methods, learning advanced experience may not be the perfect way.
Reference:
CDC 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates
CDC U.S. Influenza Surveillance System: Purpose and Methods
CDC People at High Risk For Flu Complications
Pressenza The flu has killed 10,000 Americans this season
World Health Organization Influenza update
Abc news Hospitalizations ‘high’ for kids as flu kills 14 more children: CDC
Notice of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on Printing and Distributing China’s Influenza Vaccination Technical Guidelines (2019-2020)
The article is from the public number: Earth Knowledge Bureau (ID: diqiuzhishiju) , Author: Sven Fan seniors.