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Instead of thinking from a short-term perspective, we must use long-termism to look at problems. Ask only the right and wrong, not the gains and losses.

Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “High Banyan Capital” (ID: banyancapital) , author: high Yung capital.

“Entrepreneurship means that the brave wins, and those who have ambition and action win.” For companies with truly differentiated value, crisis is the fighter, and there must be enough courage and confidence to face difficulties and seize opportunities.

On February 23, at the Ronghui Gao Ronghui “Crossing Crisis” online salon, founder and chairman of Focus Media, Jiang Nanchun, met with 180 Rongchao CEOs, Gao Rongchao through online video conferences. The management and partners shared their thoughts after experiencing three SARS cases in 2003, the financial crisis in 2008, and the new crown epidemic three times, and refined three cognitions: crisis is a fighter, right is success or failure, and differentiation is evolution.

The following is the sharing record of Jiang Nanchun:

I am one of Gao Rong’s earliest LPs. I am very glad to see that the companies invested by Gao Rong today represent the rise of many emerging industries in China. Focus Media started its business in 2003 and 17 years have passed. We also see you all here. Better entrepreneurs are creating new legends in various industries.

To discuss the new crown epidemic today, we see that the epidemic situation outside Hubei has been effectively controlled. It is expected that the recovery rate of office buildings will exceed 70% in the week of March 2nd; by the week of March 9th, 90% of the people are expected Are already at work.

At the moment, we have to think about how to avoid the “secondary disaster” after the immunization—that is, the “economic epidemic.” The outbreak will lead to a sharp decline in the performance of many companies, increasingly tight cash flows, and large-scale losses. There must be someone who “jumps the building to kill the price”. There is no minimum, only lower.

But I thinkThe “economic epidemic” brought by the new crown is short-term. Focus is the barometer of the Chinese economy and Chinese startups. At present, the publication rate of Focus is around 70%, and the ads in April will be full. I judge that China ’s consumer market will be fully restored in April, and May 1st will become the new “Spring Festival stall” and the strongest “51st stall” in history. Movies, shopping malls, tourism, etc., ushered in a rapid recovery and full recovery during the May Day.

In the face of crisis, how should entrepreneurs think and act? From the SARS in 2003, the financial crisis in 2008, and the new crown epidemic crisis, I sorted out three points of inspiration.

Three revelations brought by the crisis: Crisis is a fighter, right or wrong is success or failure, differentiation is evolution

1. Crisis is a fighter

Focus is born in SARS. In January 2013, I invested 50 million as a focus, and in February and March, SARS came. Many people persuaded me to shrink and manage my cash flow, but I still beat the money down.

Because I see a big opportunity and I firmly believe it will succeed. At that time, China ushered in a huge change-urbanization. What is an important infrastructure for urbanization? It’s an elevator. I am very excited to find that this is a huge opportunity. I want to be an elevator media that no one in the world has done before, and it will definitely become the infrastructure that affects the mainstream people in the city.

Shall I stop after SARS arrives? I said don’t stop, I’m going to roll it all out. Moreover, during SARS, everyone had no time to deal with it, and commercial buildings were also very talkative. By the time SARS passed in June, I had fully paved the building, including the top commercial office buildings. At this time, someone wants to follow up, and the building is gone. This is my thinking in the opposite direction.

What I fear most is not SARS. What I fear most is that when I lay down these buildings, there will be others next to it. There are no barriers to our model. Can others do it? Also capable. The only problem is that if you grab a time window, take down all the positions, and sign the positions for 5 years, you wo n’t be able to play.

I think all entrepreneurs should be optimistic enough. If this world is gone, they will die early and be born alive.

In fact, starting a business means winning the brave, and those with ambition and action win. China’s most interesting dynasty was the Song Dynasty. At that time, GDP accounted for 1/3 of the world, but it was bruised by a country as small as Jin. The world continues to prove that the brave wins.

When you have enough ambition and courage, you will find endless opportunities. How much energy your heart has, you can do as much business as you can.

So my biggest summary of SARS is that crisis is fighter. When others shrink, we let go. The key is not to be fragile.

Mr. Inamori told a story in “Heart Method,” which I find very interesting. He said that when he was young, his uncle had tuberculosis, and every time he wentI walked across my uncle’s room, holding his nose, for fear of being infected. While his father took care of his uncle, his elder brother thought “how could it be so easy to get infected” and dealt with it calmly. In the end, the entire family was infected by himself. what is the reason? He read a sentence in the book, “There are magnets in our hearts that attract disaster. We are sick because we have a fragile heart that attracts germs.”

The more people are afraid of something, the more they come; the more you think about it, the more you can do it.

A colleague recently said what will happen to the advertising industry after the epidemic. I only said one sentence and you have thoughts. What problems do you think will happen, the task will not be completed; once you have this distraction, you must not be completed. So I say you back down. We don’t need people with distractions, we need those who “I will definitely succeed”.

2. Right or wrong, success or failure

In 2008, Focus Group also experienced a major crisis, and the market value of Focus Group dropped from US $ 8.6 billion to US $ 600 million. Many people say “waist cut”, I am a person who has been “vertically cut vertically”, 8 is gone, and only the remaining 600 million US dollars remain. I have experienced this before, what do I think is terrible?

Finance has been a company with a market value of US $ 3 billion to US $ 4 billion in 2005 on NASDAQ. Once, the owner of the world’s largest fund company came to China to visit, and he held a lot of Chinese stocks. I asked him a question, why is Baidu 100 times the PE and we are 25 times the PE?

He told me: you’re not sexy and sexy. Focus Focus occupies many buildings in China, but the physical space is limited. How do you develop in the future? Baidu is an Internet company with unlimited imagination.

I was hit hard when I went back and I couldn’t sleep that night. I am an advertising expert, and I think this shows that our advertising language is wrong, and it is wrong to say that we are the “China’s largest life circle media”. That night I wrote a sentence to redefine the audience, called “China largest digital media group”. I was very excited when I finished writing. At that time, Google and Microsoft were also buying digital media.

And Focus is a digital media company, and I can tell a new story in capital. After speaking, I think you only have digital outdoor media, so I bought Haoye, and bought a bunch of Internet advertising companies and mobile advertising companies. After I bought everything, I spelled a story. Is it effective? Effective, the market value has been speculated from US $ 3 billion to US $ 4 billion to US $ 8.6 billion at the end of 2007. More than ten years ago, with $ 8.6 billion, I held more than 10% of the shares. At that time, I thought that it was finally my turn to sell stocks, and finally to improve my life. I’m almost ready to sell stocks in 2008.

But when you want to sell stocks, disasters follow. First, CCTV “3 · 15” reported that the company’s subsidiary sends spam messages to usersAdvertising can only be cut off, and the market value has dropped by more than one billion US dollars.

The 5.12 earthquake, and the nation’s silence, at that time we did not have remote control and we had to shut down all of them. The performance is far from the market expectation, so we lost another billion dollars.

After the Olympic Games, the stock price came back a little bit. As a result, we went out to do a roadshow and told people that by the end of the fourth quarter, there would be a net profit of 79 million US dollars, and the stock price started to stabilize. Unexpectedly, as soon as we got off the plane, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and customers cancelled orders. We only made $ 50 million in that quarter, and Americans think you are too unreliable. In addition, many of the companies we bought have gone, and there is no value left. In the end, the stock price plummeted to only $ 600 million.

Looking back, in order to tell a story to the capital market, in order to drive PE up, and to sell stocks ourselves, the consequence is that no stock is sold. why? I later concluded that right or wrong is success or failure. Because my heart was wrong, my heart went astray. At this time you will find that when your heart is not right, the world will not follow your thinking, and the final result will be borne by you alone.

A lot of times, what is the pain of life? A comparison between short-term gains and losses and right and wrong. Is it wrong to look at my stock market in the short term, is it wrong to tell a capital story? That’s right, this is called short-term gains and losses. But right or wrong? wrong.

The principle of the world is force and reaction. Whatever you do in the world will give you back. If you do the “yes” thing, you will succeed, and if you do the “no” things, you will lose. It is recommended that you do not think from a short-term perspective, but use long-termism to look at problems. Ask only the right and wrong, not the gains and losses.

3, differentiation is evolution

After the new crown epidemic is over, companies will be polarized.

First, there will be huge opportunities for leading companies in various fields. Recently, we had a conference call with many leading companies, and ambitious entrepreneurs felt that the opportunity had come. They were pedaling hard on the accelerator, not on the brakes. The opportunity for the First Army to shake off the Second Army is here.

The idea of ​​Focus is the same, not only does not shrink, but also gives some extra budget. It is necessary to increase the 80% screen digitization rate to 100%. This epidemic made me determined. In addition, we need to increase the expansion of buildings and achieve market share from 80% to 90%. We have sufficient cash, and what the leading companies need to do at this time is to clean up the battlefield.

Second, for second-tier companies, it depends on whether you have differentiated value and the market trend after the epidemic.Whether the shift in your advantage is good for your differentiated value. If it is affirmative, the epidemic was also a major fighter overtaking in the corner.

In this outbreak, the traffic of some companies has increased, such as online education, online medical care, and online grocery shopping. I think this is a category opportunity. Think about how to take advantage of attention and turn a category opportunity into a brand opportunity. Because the opportunity for all is not an opportunity, the crisis for all is not a crisis. You need a category opportunity to build awareness in the minds of consumers and turn it into a brand opportunity. For example, after the epidemic, when consumers can think of buying food in their brains, they should look for Ding Dong to buy food, which is to turn category opportunities into brand opportunities.

I also said that after the epidemic, many small and medium-sized enterprises will die, and many small and medium-sized enterprises listen to it with a cold heart. But small businesses without differentiated value would have withdrawn from the market, and the epidemic only accelerated the process of survival of the fittest. Everyone often says to support small and medium-sized enterprises, but what can really be supported must be enterprises with differentiated value. As long as you have enough value, the capital will definitely find you and support you to rush up at the time of overtaking on a curve.

So I personally do not agree with keeping cash flow, and keeping cash flow is slowly dying. Sustained and unsustainable cash flow depends on whether there is real value, whether to solve unique problems for the society, or whether to meet the unmet needs of consumers. If so, you must have enough confidence to do it. The size of the Chinese market is there, the demand is there, and everything is back to normal after the epidemic.

Tao is human heart, human heart is more important than flow

After the short-term “economic epidemic” brought about by the new crown epidemic, I think China’s long-term “economic epidemic” has not ended. This long-term “economic epidemic” began in 2018, mainly due to two points-the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the end of the traffic dividend.

For the Chinese economy, the result is that, on the one hand, demand growth has decreased, and on the other hand, the cost of traffic has increased. This will result in “killing both quantity and price”. If you want to get the quantity by price, you can’t get the quantity, because others are also killing the price.

This cycle crashes the business system-prices continue to fall, traffic costs continue to rise, and the space in the middle is squeezed. I think this is the core of China’s “economic epidemic.”

Where is the antidote for the “economic epidemic”? Branding matters.

1. Find the consumer mental switch

What is branding? Reviewing China’s Reform and Opening-up