This article comes from WeChat public account: If it is the Financial Research Institute (ID: RuShiYanJiu) , the original heading “investment semiconductor topic: Taishiyanpan, segments and the company-wide combing”, author: Fortune Pointing north
From the beginning of 2020 to the present, the spring turmoil of A-shares has once again begun as scheduled, and even the epidemic has not been prevented. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by -0.34%, mainly due to the sharp retracement on the day of February 3. However, it has continued to rise since then, and the index has become invalid to some extent. Correspondingly, the GEM Index rose nearly 24% during the same period.
In terms of industries, the highest increase is in the electronics industry (up 30%) , among which the semiconductor industry ranks first In less than 3 months, the sector has gained 55%. And if you look at the concept section, it is also memory (up 70%) , National Fund of China (Up 64%) , photoresist (61%) , integrated circuit (55%) , semiconductor industry (54%) , gallium nitride (51%) , chips (51%) And so on, among the hundreds of concept plates, the top ranks are semiconductors!
The stock price keeps rising, and worries also follow. Is it so overvalued? A lot of foreign capital is already withdrawing, and will it take over? Is there any chance without the funds to get in the car? What are the current relatively good investment segments and related target companies? What about equipment and materials? The most certain benefit of selling shovel tools under the gold rush? What about memory? A new round of price increase cycle has begun, and the wave of expansion has fallen? The global shortage of RF filters is intensifying. Is it expected that both volume and price will rise in 2020? Power semiconductors are the core of new energy vehicles. Tesla brings new opportunities? R & D of manufacturing packaging and testing under demand will bring valuation recovery?
Today, I will briefly answer some questions that investors are generally concerned about.
1. The domestic market is large and the industry will enter the booming cycle in 2020. Domestic substitution is the main logic of this big market of semiconductors.
First, from the perspective of scale, the domestic market is expected to have more than 10 times the space. According to WSTS data, in the global integrated circuit sales market, the Chinese market accounted for 33.8% of global semiconductor sales in 2018, and this proportion is still expanding. With the development of artificial intelligence, 5G, and IoT terminals in the future, the demand and scale of semiconductors will also accelerate. However, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s IC self-sufficiency rate is only 7%, and 93% are imported. In 2018, China’s IC design industry revenue was US $ 25.1 billion, and its imports were US $ 312.1 billion, which is 12.3 times of self-sufficiency.
Second, from the perspective of industry prosperity, the global semiconductor industry will enter an upward boom cycle in 2020. The domestic semiconductor boom has not been affected by the new crown epidemic, and the high boom has continued. In the past two weeks, the fee and a half index continued to reach a new high, and global semiconductor sales are also picking up.
Finally, from the perspective of domestic substitution, not only is the profit behind it, but also the key development strategy of the card neck technology. In 2019, the import value of integrated circuits was 300.5 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 2.2% of China’s total GDP in 2019, and coupled with the industry’s drive for investment, if the domestic production of semiconductors is expected to increase total GDP by about 3%. There are still many core chip fields for equipment. The proportion of domestic chips is almost 0, while the United States dominates the entire chip supply.The market share accounts for more than 50%. Against the background of the rise of the great powers and the Sino-US trade friction, domestic substitution is imperative.
2. The long-term rise of semiconductors depends on the current position of the current technology cycle; the sustainability of short-term rises depends on the subsequent incremental funding of technology stocks and The evolution of the spring market.
1) Long-term perspective: The current China ’s GDP growth rate has reduced the volatility after shifting gears, and the economy has entered a new era from large to strong. Similar to the United States in the 1980s, the upgrading of the industrial structure has accelerated, and domestic substitution caused by Sino-US trade disputes 5G will lead a new round of technology cycle, and according to the transmission law, it should be “hardware-software-content-application scenario” delivery. At present, it is only the hardware side that has seen a significant rebound in profits.
2) Short-term perspective: Semiconductors have risen quite high, and explosive funds have appeared frequently. New stock accounts and Shanghai and Shenzhen’s turnover exceeded one trillion yuan for several consecutive days, indicating its popularity.
First, look at the incremental funds in the later period: newly issued public funds establish a position (In January, approximately 1,000 public funds were issued, and positions were already established in February) (At the end of last year, the absolute allocation ratio and excess allocation ratio of the public offering to the GEM were 14.7% and 6.4%, respectively. , and the proportion of the outbreak of the 14-15 year technology industry cycle is 26.2% and 19.6%. Even if there is a spring increase, there should still be room for foreign capital inflows. (Year-to-date, foreign-invested shares hold 74.75 billion shares, holding a stock market value of 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 3.05% of outstanding A shares) , ETF funds ( At present, there are about 20 technology ETFs to be issued) and retail funds (under the effect of making money, more funds have flowed in, and even financing has been purchased) < / span>.
Second, look at the performance of the spring market: combing the market performance of the past 5 years, it can be clearly seen that compared with the current market performance from the beginning of 2020 to the present, 15 and 19 years are more meaningful and both have surged. In the past two years, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has been around 70 days. (that is, mid-March) has been adjusted. The entrepreneurial index was adjusted in mid-April 15 years, and it was only adjusted in mid-March 19. This year, although spring mania started earlier However, due to the epidemic, the rhythm has slowed down. It can be expected that the government support will increase and the rhythm will accelerate in the later period.
3. As for A shares, there are two ways to invest in the semiconductor sector:
One is semiconductor related funds, such as semiconductor (512481) , semiconductor 50 (512761) and chip ETF (159995) and so on. The second is to invest in stocks in subdivided sectors that are highly flexible and have great potential for subsequent growth. The former is a buying sector, it is not easy to miss the market, but the fund has decentralized requirements, less flexibility, suitable for friends who have difficulty in stock selection. The latter is relatively more concentrated, investing in specific promising stocks and obtaining higher elastic returns.
In addition to the upstream equipment materials and downstream demand-side terminals, the semiconductor industry chain is roughly divided into design, manufacturing, packaging and testing. Among them, at the current point in time, some subdivided areas have strong mainline investment logic.
4. Equipment and materials: The industry is booming. The upstream will be just needed. The rest depends on the sensitivity of the stock price to new orders.
First of all, this year’s domestic wafer fab expansion is determined to increase, which will drive its upstream equipment / materials companies, analogous to the domestic replacement of Huawei’s supply chain last year. .
Second, domestic memory factories are actively investing and will also help accelerate the development of domestic equipment, such as etching equipment, testing equipment, process control equipment and cleaning equipment will have new orders.
Again, domestic demand for substitution. The localization rate of semiconductor equipment in mainland China is only 11.5%, and the semiconductor equipment manufactured in China accounts for about 2% of the global market. Materials, the localization ratio of wafer manufacturing materials is lower.
Finally, the investment of the second phase of the big fund. While continuing to focus on the areas of manufacturing, packaging and testing, the big fund will also focus on upstream equipment and materials companies, such as the most typical etching machines.
5. Memory: A new round of price increase cycle has started, and the wave of expansion has been reduced.
In the past, when semiconductors were in the down cycle, memory chip revenue continued to decline from 2018Q3, but the situation began to improve in 2019Q3. On the demand side, the iteration of downstream products will form a strong demand kinetic energy. On the supply side, manufacturers’ capacity adjustments will cause deviations, and the growth rate of supply and demand does not exactly match. 6. RF filters: Global shortages are intensifying, domestic production is on the verge of volume, and volume and price are expected to rise in 2020.
First, RF capacity is limited and demand exceeds supply. 5G base station construction, 5G mobile phones, 5G CPE equipment and other heavy demand have brought about a substantial increase in demand, but currently limited production capacity. Some industry OEM leaders are stable, a new round of capital expenditure expansion has started, and considering the supply and demand pattern of RF-SOI silicon wafers, the core material of RF chips, it is expected that supply and demand will be tight in 2020.
Second, domestic substitution is also in demand, especially for mid- to high-end localization. At present, radio frequency is a domestically-made deep-water area. In the entire RF front-end chip / module industry chain, China’s participation in it is still very low.
Finally, in the RF front-end module, the RF filter is a (54%) . In addition, the introduction of new 5G frequency bands in conjunction with the original communication capabilities will also significantly increase the demand for RF filters.
7. Power semiconductors: the economy is on the upswing and the attention in the early stage is low, but recently Tesla has attracted attention.
The semiconductor sector has a high valuation. The industry logic is better under the expansion of the valuation, and the prosperity is upward. As Tesla drives the wave of new energy vehicles to open up industry space, power semiconductors will benefit significantly from industry drivers.
8. Manufacturing and testing: Driven by demand, the recovery of ROE will bring PB repair.
The cost profit margin, EBITDA / operating income of the semiconductor industry have picked up in 2019, and it is expected that the trend of recovery and improvement will continue in 2020.
This article comes from WeChat public account: if it is the Institute of Finance (ID: RuShiYanJiu) , author: wealth refers to the North