This article comes from WeChat public account: City War (ID: sunbushu123) , author: Sun unfamiliar
Since March 1, the mortgage rate has been changed to “anchor”, and its calculation method has changed dramatically.
From today to August 30, most of China’s existing housing loans need to be converted.
Simply speaking, the previous mortgage interest rate was set based on the benchmark interest rate. From now on, this “anchor” must be replaced with the LPR interest rate. Whether it is a new mortgage or an existing mortgage, it depends on LPR Complexion.
Taking a closer look at the conversion rules, I have a few feelings:
1. LPR has declined one after another, but the hope of “interest rate cuts” on mortgages has failed.
2. The bank is the winner of this conversion. Although the interest rate is falling, the interest of the house slaves has not been paid less for the time being.
3. Marketization of interest rates, with the exception of the property market, mortgage interest rates are still highly regulated.
4. Low interest rates are trending, but the property market is hard to follow.
Some common questions are answered collectively.
1.
Q: What is the difference between LPR and benchmark interest rates?
Answer: The benchmark interest rate is the policy interest rate determined by the central bank, and LPR is the market interest rate resulting from commercial bank bidding.
The benchmark interest rate is adjusted irregularly. The last time the central bank adjusted the benchmark interest rate was in 2015. The interest rate for loans with a term of more than 5 years is (mortgage interest rate) It is 4.9%, and the LPR interest rate is adjusted monthly.
LPR is generated by the common quotation of 18 commercial banks. The calculation method is to remove one of the highest price and the lowest price, and then calculate the arithmetic average. The price will be recalculated on the 20th of each month.
2.
Q: What loans need to be converted?
Answer: Look at the loan contract. If the interest rate agreed with the bank was originally priced at the benchmark interest rate 3.
Q: What channels can be converted?
Answer: The specific operation is subject to the interpretation of the loan bank. However, according to the announcements of many banks, before August 30, mortgage customers can basically use mobile banking, online banking, smart teller machines, SMS banking, any outlet and other channels have completed the pricing benchmark conversion.
4.
Q: After the anchor change, how to calculate the interest rate of the existing mortgage?
Answer: Equivalent conversion, no rise or fall, keep the interest rate agreed in the original contract until the end of the year, and adjust it again next year. That is to say, although LPR interest rates have been falling one after another, this year’s mortgage interest rates remain unchanged.
The specific algorithm of interest rate is “LPR + fixed spread”. Here, the LPR value is selected from the 4.8% loan interest rate of 5 years or more in December of the previous year. The algorithm of fixed spread is the key. Agreed rate-LPR for December 2019 “.
For example, Zhang San has a stock mortgage. The interest rate stipulated that the benchmark interest rate rises by 10%, that is, 4.9% × (1 + 10%) = 5.39%, which is still this rate in 2020.No change, his “fixed spread” is 5.39% -4.8% = 0.59%.
For another example, Li Si has a stock mortgage. The interest rate stipulated is a 10% discount to the benchmark interest rate, which is 4.9% × 90% = 4.41%. This rate will remain unchanged in 2020. His “fixed spread” “Is 4.41% -4.8% =-0.39%.
That is to say, this fixed spread can be positive or negative. If the previously agreed interest rate is the benchmark interest rate floating up, the spread is positive. If the contract is floating down, the spread may be negative.
The focus is on. Once this spread is determined, it will remain fixed.
For example, if the LPR in December 2020 (more than 5 years loan interest rate) becomes 4.5%, then in 2021, The above-mentioned interest rate on Zhang San’s mortgage has become 4.5% + 0.59% = 5.09%, while Li Si’s interest rate has become 4.5%-0.39% = 4.11%.
5.
Q: How to calculate the interest rate of new mortgages?
Answer: The calculation method is also “LPR + basis point”. The LPR here is the latest LPR loan interest rate of more than 5 years, and how many basis points are added is determined by the local governments. Each basis point is equal to one ten thousandth.
It is important to set priorities again. As many “basis points” are added, local governments can flexibly adjust. In hotter areas of the property market, the base point may be higher, and in colder areas, the base point may be lower. For example, the hotspot cities of Nanning, Suzhou, and Zhengzhou all have a base point of more than 100, and the interest rate of the first home is more than 6%.
For example, if someone buys a house this year, if the interest rate of the first home in the area is increased by 100 basis points, then its mortgage interest will beThe rate is 4.75% (February LPR interest rate) + 1% (plus points) < /span>=5.75%.
I haven’t found that although the LPR interest rate has become market-oriented, all walks of life can finally enjoy the thrill of LPR interest rate reduction, but the mortgage interest rate is excluded because the locality can adjust the base point at any time as needed.
Therefore, the property market is just the same. Regardless of whether or not LPR is involved, the difference is not so much. Real estate was originally the least market-oriented industry. Don’t expect to enjoy marketization in interest rates so soon.
6.
Q. After the conversion, who is the winner of the bank and the house slave?
A: As far as 2020 is concerned, banks will definitely be winners. Although LPR is falling, the interest of house slaves has not been reduced because the conversion principle is “keep the equivalent interest rate of the original contract unchanged.”
Explain that the LPR interest rate for more than 5 years in December last year was 4.8%, which has fallen by 10 basis points compared to the benchmark interest rate in 2015. If the benchmark algorithm is used, as long as the benchmark interest rate falls, the interest of the house slave Will follow minus. But this year’s demand for interest rates to remain unchanged, which means that housing slaves missed 10 basis points of interest rate cuts. According to estimates by financial writer Liu Xiaobo, major banks can account for at least 28 billion yuan in bargains.
Since 2020, the “fixed point” is unchanged, and the algorithm is a bit complicated and cannot be generalized. But generally speaking, if the LPR interest rate continues to decline in 2021, those who originally enjoyed the discount on the benchmark interest rate will pay less interest than the previous algorithm, and those who originally floated according to the benchmark interest rate will pay more than the previous algorithm. Interest is slightly more. If LPR goes higher, the situation is just the other way round.
7.
Q: You only have one chance to choose. Which one is elected?
Answer: The central bank provides two options, and the choice is only one time, one is fixed interest rate, and the other is floating interest rate.
LiftFor example, if Zhang San chooses a fixed interest rate, his mortgage interest rate will always be 5.39%, and regardless of how the LPR changes in the future, he will repay at this interest rate.
If Zhang San chooses a floating interest rate, his mortgage interest rate will be adjusted once a year as the LPR changes.
So, which option is more cost-effective? The key depends on how you judge the future LPR trend. If you think LPR is bullish for a long time, choose a fixed interest rate. If you think LPR interest rate is bearish for a long time, choose a floating interest rate.
At present, the mainstream view is that China is currently in the global currency easing cycle, and China’s low interest rates will be the general trend. At this time, it is more cost-effective to choose a floating interest rate.
8.
Ask, the trend of low interest rates is trending, will the property market follow?
A: No.
First of all, LPR is not a fully market-based interest rate. Although on the surface it is generated by the bidding of 18 commercial banks and is not subject to government intervention, it is still subject to the central bank ’s MLF operates (Medium-term loan facilities) , LPR will not really fly out of the palm of macro-control.
In simple terms, MLF can be understood as the reference interest rate that the central bank lends to banks, and LPR is the reference interest rate that banks lend to customers. To a large extent, MLF is the anchor of LPR and has a great impact on it. For example, in February, the central bank indirectly contributed to the reduction of the LPR interest rate by reducing the MLF interest rate.
Secondly, the mortgage interest rate and LPR cannot be equalized. As mentioned earlier, local governments can add points to LPR based on needs. If the property market is too hot, there will be more points. Therefore, even with the marketization of interest rates, mortgage rates are still strictly controlled by the government.
Next, you may see that as the government stimulates the economy and market interest rates continue to decline, all industries enjoy the lower dividends of LPR. Only real estate is excluded. “Do not speculate on housing” is still the general tone, at least in the current caliber of the mother, the mortgage interest rate shows no sign of water.
If you change the soup without changing the medicine, if you buy a house, if you follow the low LPR and get excited, it is a waste of emotion.
This article comes from WeChat public account: City War (ID: sunbushu123) author: Sun unfamiliar