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Whether it is online or offline, the fitness field will usher in a new round of shuffling due to this epidemic:

• Stores with poor offline operations and poor reputation are closing and integrating;

• Take the opportunity to train and educate users online and become a supplementary tool;

• What faces greater opportunities is the release of supply-side capabilities, that is, the vast number of fitness coaches and offline regional stores will open up more possibilities for cooperation.
  

  We believe that the epidemic will eventually be overcome. The fitness industry has long-term value, and we believe that good opportunities will appear in the “middle crowd” and “middle ground.” And the role of this epidemic is more like a catalyst, which not only accelerates the integration of offline formats, but also tears the “shroud” of the traditional fitness industry and accelerates cooperation between different channels.

  Family scene: underrated “middle crowd”

  During the epidemic, the family fitness field first ushered in a small blowout period. First look at a set of data:

  Taobao data shows that more than 110 million people have searched for various sports-related products in the past 30 days;

  Selling fitness hardware first. For example, Xiao Qiao treadmill, founder Pan Zhongjian said that 3 to 4000 treadmills / bicycles are sold every day recently, an increase of 116% year-on-year, and an increase of 2-3 times over last year. In response to the rising demand in the spring, I didn’t expect to sell out in the New Year; King Smith’s walking machine products were sold short on the second day of the new year; Myshape fitness equipment is also sold out of stock;

  Fitness content platform also welcomes short-term traffic bonus:

  • According to Qimai data, Keep ’s search index on Apple Store has been rising since late January;

  • Yake platform Wake is adding 40,000 to 50,000 users daily, and revenue is doubled;

  • Content platforms, such as TT Live, have recently seen a daily user growth of more than 20%;

  • CoachAI, an online personal education camp, has recently seen a 50% increase in user numbers.
    

    

    Keep search index trend Data source: Qimai

    At the same time, a large number of offline fitness studios have also switched to the online, opening up new forms of payment, or retaining users with content services. The new fitness chain studios represented by super orangutans have quickly completed several issues. For online sales, courses with a unit price of 399 sold out quickly.
    

    Under the epidemic, there was an unexpected player: Switch ’s fitness ring quickly sold out, and the price rose from more than 500 yuan to 1,000 yuan. Some oxen even fry the price to 1,800 yuan.

    Interestingly, the influx of users into online products this time is not a “fitness enthusiast” in the traditional sense. On the contrary, a large number of “middle zone” users who do not have good fitness habits themselves have begun to appear , Opened a new window in the fitness field.

    “Walking machines” are a class of products that meet the needs of users in the middle zone. The founder of King Smith mentioned in an interview that some users may place impulse consumption due to “anxiety” when they place orders for walking machines.

    In other words, the users of home walkers are often another group of people who have anxiety, health and needs for their bodies. Their appeal is beautiful, relaxed, and more focused on “moving and moving”, “relieving stress”, etc. Moving at home is not so much self-discipline as a psychological “placebo”.

    “Intermediate people” have a willingness to exercise and fitness, but due to time and economic restrictions, they may all have Keep registered accounts, but they ca n’t open them several times a month. These users are the most common and have the largest number of users, and their value is underestimated.

    

    Why are you underestimated?

    We have calculated the amazing size of the weight management market when discussing meal replacement. publicData show that China has over 60 million obese people (BMI> 30) and 200 million overweight people (BMI> 25). What is the concept of BMI? A 165cm tall woman weighs more than 68kg, even if she is overweight.

    In fact, even in the public’s cognitive standards, even in the “not overweight” range, many consumers have a strong demand for fat reduction. It needs to be acknowledged that the weight management market is a market with huge female users, long-term demand and high willingness to pay-and this epidemic has actually transformed this large number of potential people into fitness products. user.

    Because the family is a delicate scene, you can walk on the walking machine while cooking, you can spend 3-5 minutes doing a set of shoulders and neck relaxation, and you can even do a set of squats in pajamas. “Moving” is the first and most critical step.

    The next thing to consider is how to meet the needs of these users and convert them into long-term paying users. Our point of view is: lowering the threshold of fitness (duration, exercise style, frequency, etc.), and psychological burden are very important.

    Is fitness broadcasting feasible?

    As we mentioned above, the offline fitness industry has also begun to launch live broadcast services under the epidemic.

    The offline fitness studio represented by Super Orangutan has launched the “Education Camp” product, with 14 days of content + service, priced at 399 yuan, and it will be sold out soon after it goes online. In an online share a few days ago, the founder of Super Orangutan mentioned that live broadcast is a good channel for communication with users, brand communication, and emotional transmission, but relying on live broadcast to bring traffic and business, or to pay new fees Users are more difficult; the peak number of online users in the Super Orangutan Live is 280,000, but WeChat’s attention has hardly increased, which means that external users are still “watching lively.”

    Suddenly face two problems when launching live broadcast :

    1. Most content-capable platforms do not have or have not launched their own live broadcast channels, and rely on external live broadcast platforms, such as Douyin, One Live, etc. For example, Keep is in the form of a schedule, allowing brands to enter the line Courses and links will jump to an external live broadcast platform. The head of Keep ’s public relations, Li Ruoming, will not rule out the possibility of building a live broadcast platform in the future, but the business will continue to test for a period of time;

    2. Playback platforms such as PPTV do not produce content themselves, but need to reference external fitness content. The former becomes a traffic channel, and the latter becomes a platform, and the conversion, payment, and retention effects after diversion are not yet clear.

    If you put the fitness content into the entire live content, the entertainment attributes and communicationFitness broadcasts with weak attributes are not competitive in content.

    For users with fitness needs (purposed users), there are two ways to earn more than 1V live broadcast, one is through pay-per-view, and the other is through user rewards. The former’s problem is that Keep, which already has a head player, provides a lot of high-quality fitness course content. Whether the content is worth paying is directly based on Keep. The latter is more like a spontaneous behavior of sports people. Not only does the content have no brand competitiveness, it is also unstable. Neither of the two profit methods is long-term and healthy.

    As part of the puzzle, what other opportunities for home fitness?

    The next thing to consider is what do they need for the “middle crowd” in a home environment? Is it product, content or service?

    From the perspective of companies already on the market, there are several profit models:

    1. Provide hardware. Many companies will benchmark the US listed company Peloton, telling the story of hardware + subscription content. Last year, we published the <5 Hundreds of millions of dollars, in the article Finding Chinese Peloton discussed in detail. The risk here is that if you only rely on hardware to make a profit, the key to winning is the supply chain and the brand. If users cannot pay for the brand premium, then the efficiency and cost optimization at the production end will determine success or failure. This is why everyone has followed the example of Peloton, adding content to the hardware, allowing users to pay for “combination punches” and even subscribe.

    2. Provide content. The head of the content platform, such as Keep used to do content payment services, paid subscription members can get more content, but the paid content still stays in recording and broadcasting classes, and the feasibility has not been verified at the same time; Start-up companies such as TT Live are also doing paid content testing. The model is similar to iQiyi. Paying members can enjoy more live lessons and cooperative courses with discounted prices. In a recent interview, the founder revealed that the paid conversion rate is relatively optimistic.

    3. Provide services. The third type of company focuses on online services, that is, providing online guidance, formulating sports training programs, diet plan recommendations, and the most important supervision and companionship. The traditional form is represented by FitTime online fat reduction camp. The problem with this type of service is that the cost of customer acquisition is high, and renewal and retention are problems.