Production | Tiger Sniff Business Group
Author ｜ 刘 然
The epidemic resistance has reached a critical moment. Some time ago, the Zhongnanshan Hospital team predicted that the epidemic situation would be flattened by the end of April. It is suggested that strict prevention and control measures should be implemented by the end of April 2020. This means that people live at home. The behavior will continue for two months.
The travel industry, which has been affected by the epidemic, has already started its recovery plan.
“The travel industry has contributed more than 10% of the world’s GDP. During the epidemic, it was also one of the most damaged industries. The loss may continue to expand due to some uncertainty.” At the Ctrip conference last night, Liang Jianzhang said so. However, travel is also considered by the industry as one of the industries most likely to have retaliatory growth. He believes that the impact of the epidemic on travel is phased and will not change the development trend of China’s travel industry.
This time, Ctrip released the “Travel Revival V Plan” and the “Purchase Future Travel” pre-sale product that will be launched in the first phase. At the same time, Ctrip will launch a 1 billion yuan recovery fund in conjunction with hundreds of destinations to stimulate tourism consumption. .
Ctrip is now focusing on sinking the market and the international market. Obviously, it does not want to and cannot fall into the dilemma brought by the black swan. At this time, it is necessary to take some necessary measures to actively find an antidote.
Bottom Moment
On January 24, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism (Ministry of Culture and Tourism) issued an urgent notice requesting that national travel agencies and online tourism companies suspend their operating teams Tourism and “ticket + hotel” tourism products. Since then, the tourism industry, which was expected to usher in a peak of growth around the Spring Festival, has stalled in an instant.
Travel agencies, attractions, airlines, hotels and other related companies have stagnated, and many have ushered in dizzying demand for refunds. Until recently, Hot Search was updated from time to time with new trends in the travel industry related to the epidemic.
On February 6, in order to help the industry through the winter, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism decided to temporarily withdraw 80% of the travel service quality guarantee deposit of travel agencies; the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation also proposed the loss incurred in 4 major industries such as tourism in 2020 , The longest carry-over period was extended from 5 to 8 years; China Tourism Association also exempted 212 members from 2020 dues.
Nevertheless, in the next few months, people’s willingness to travel will decrease foreseeably, while at the same time, every stakeholder on this chain must maintain basic operations.
At the end of February, Baicheng Travel.com, once known as the “China’s first O2O outbound tourism company” by Ali Investment, started its liquidation preparations and began aftercare. Of course, Baicheng’s business itself is in a loss state, and the unexpected epidemic has become the last straw that crushed Baicheng.
Sina Finance It is also reported that after the airline orders reached a new 15-year high in January, Airbus orders dropped to zero in February because the global spread of the new crown virus epidemic has severely impacted the aviation industry. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warns that global airlines could lose $ 113 billion this year due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic.
In addition, agencies predict that the tourism industry will lose about 500 billion yuan during the Spring Festival this year. “The national tourism industry is expected to lose close to 3 trillion yuan this year.”
Liang Jianzhang also bluntly stated that if the country is unable to achieve full resumption of work and production in April this year, “there may be a big problem in the business world.” “And the travel industry contributes more than 10% of GDP to the world. As one of the most damaged industries, what should the travel industry practitioners do after the epidemic?” This is our launch of the “Tourism Revival V Plan” The original intention. “Liang Jianzhang said.
After bottoming out, the shape of the industry’s bottoming out has been described by Ctrip as a “V” shape, which is why it named this plan so. Ctrip also divided the progress of the epidemic into three phases: warming-up, recovery, and rebound. “And ‘recovery’ does not simply refer to the recovery of travel activities. The recovery plan is to avoid ‘one size fits all’ under the premise of ensuring that epidemic prevention and control is in place, to establish an industry recovery order compatible with epidemic prevention and control, and to promote development in adversity. “Liang Jianzhang emphasized.
Self-Rescue
“During the critical stage of epidemic prevention and control, we do not encourage users to travel immediately.” Sun Bo, Ctrip’s CMO, emphasized that Ctrip’s launch of “reserving future travel”The “major” pre-sale product matrix mainly emphasizes the two standards of price and service. Specifically, consumers can buy at a preferential price, make an appointment after the epidemic, and refund it if it expires. The main purpose is also, Sales form to lock user orders in advance to help suppliers repatriate funds.
“We hope to help partners in the industry chain to return cash in advance in this way, to pass the most difficult period of the epidemic.” Ctrip CEO Sun Jie said at the press conference.
The epidemic has brought severe cash flow challenges to SMEs, but it is also true for Ctrip. This self-rescue plan is not only the industry’s self-rescue, but also every link in the chain, including Ctrip’s self-rescue.
On January 21, Ctrip’s Emergency Management Committee (IMC) launched tickets, tickets, hotels, travel vacations, and tickets for Wuhan , Non-destructive cancellation policy for products such as cars and cars. Subsequently, the number of unsubscribes and consultations for Ctrip’s businesses began to double. Public data shows that the demand for the reform and reform received by the Ctrip platform reached a peak on New Year’s Eve, and the demand for reform and reform reached one million. Compared with last year, the increase at the peak reached 650%. Even in terms of train tickets, the single-day business volume of Ctrip’s receipt of reforms has increased by 300% year-on-year and 500% compared with weekdays.
On February 5, the half-month travel order cancellations caused by the epidemic did not stabilize. At that time, Ctrip also launched the “Same Robe” program to airline ticket, hotel, travel and vacation partners on its platform, and invested 1 billion yuan in partner support funds and 10 billion yuan in small and micro loans.
And these all require a lot of cost and personnel effort. Tiger sniffed in the “ millions of” cancel “orders to Ctrip > It was written that the amount of major disaster protection funds provided by Ctrip to users reached 200 million. According to the current policy, Tiger Sniff roughly estimates that Ctrip’s troika: for air tickets, hotels, and group tours, only business travel tickets and hotels are more needed, and group travel income is basically zero. In addition, it must bear the cooperation partners, especially overseas hotels Lossy unsubscribe, and daily operations of tens of thousands of employees.
At the moment, even as big as Ctrip, the epidemic has to overcome the difficulties with its suppliers.
Ctrip is no stranger to a major epidemic. SARS Strikes in 2003, Domestic Tourists FlowThe year-on-year growth rate dropped sharply by 13 percentage points to -0.9%, and the growth rate of travel agency operating income fell by 28%. The travel industry also suffered a cliff-like decline.
Public number “ 何 加盐 ” was written Since April 2003, Ctrip’s turnover has fallen sharply, and its operating profit has fallen directly below the company’s red line. The workload of the four Ctrip’s first-generation hotel auditors fell by 70%. The performance of Ctrip’s market cooperation from the rising trend “falls to zero in an instant”.
From the general background of the industry, even though SARS has passed, it has not ushered in the expected retaliatory growth. Guotai Junan data shows that the peak period of SARS impact is March to June 2003, and the whole impact period is about one year. In 2003, the passenger flow only started to rebound in the second half of the year. At that time, passenger traffic growth and total tourism revenue growth were 11.5% and 13.07%, which were lower than the average growth rates of previous years.
Fortunately, Ctrip after SARS met a summer vacation, and in addition to various emergency measures it has taken in management and business, Ctrip’s hotel order volume has begun to rebound and blow out. In December of that year, Ctrip was successfully listed on the NASDAQ market in the United States.
According to current predictions, after the epidemic may happen to coincide with May Day, Ctrip believes that the opportunity for rebound is in it.
Sun Bo said that “the season is still full of expectations”, and Ctrip is ready: “In the first half of the year, we plan to cooperate with the Global Destination Tourism Bureau to launch a series of private IPs that deeply mine information in the industry. Help users understand destination travel information in depth, and keep an eye on the recovery trend of the May 1st seasonal node. In the second half of the year, we will use Ctrip’s full industry chain matrix to seize the peaks of traffic such as summer, National Day, and New Year’s Day, and launch A series of seasonal promotions, welcome the peak of the rebound after the epidemic with millions of supply chain brands and hundreds of destinations on the platform. “
Liang Jianzhang’s attitude is still very optimistic: “Compared with the SARS epidemic in 2003, the current Chinese tourist demand index is no longer comparable, which also means greater growth potential.”
Under the current situation, Ctrip and other parties in the industry have begun to take the initiative, which may indicate that in the face of such black swans, the big guys already have a different grasp on their strategies and capabilities.