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I. The industry chain is a value chain
Last year, I wrote “Why is aging a fake medicine in the pharmaceutical industry? “The article explained the root cause of the collapse of the generic drug logic. The downstream purchasing customers have changed from a hospital and a doctor to a unique” super health insurance “. The pricing mechanism of the generic drug industry with scattered competition It has become the “cost-plus method” that is most detrimental to the seller, resulting in each collection being a price butcher.
This is a typical case of changes in the industry caused by changes in upstream and downstream.
The fourth analysis of the upstream and downstream relationship of the industry chain in this article, I said in the previous articles of the “upstream and downstream analysis” series:
To analyze the investment value of a company, the first step is to analyze the upstream and downstream relationships of the business. Enterprises not only compete with competing products, but also have a cooperative and competitive relationship with the upstream and downstream of the industry.
The industrial chain is a value chain. The weaker you are, the stronger you are. Therefore, small changes in the pattern between upstream and downstream often lead to redistribution of the entire value chain.
However, I don’t know if you have thought about why the same kind of centralized mining, but the medical device industry does not have such a “logical collapse” of generic drugs?
In the fourth part of the “Upstream and Downstream Analysis” series, I will focus on two industries, automotive parts and building materials. Their common feature is that downstream customers are undergoing great changes. After that, I will return to answer the above That question.
Second, 20 trillion market value industry chain
Since the third quarter of last year, Tesla’s supply chain companies have experienced a surge in price as Tesla’s stock price has risen. Many rational investors believe that even if Tesla sells well, its The value created is also limited, and the order revenue that upstream companies can share is simply not enough to support the current increase.
But my point is that what Tesla brings to Chinese auto parts manufacturers is not just the purchase volume, but the big change in the supply chain, similar to the “Apple supply chain eight years ago” “For the consumer electronics industryLai, if the industry trend is developing in a direction that suits you, you can fear the threat and maintain your advantage in the competition.
But the factors that make you successful will also hamper your ability to cope with changes later. Once the industry trend is not conducive to the path of success, you will face a painful transition.
Investment is also the same. For a stable investor who is pursuing beta returns, change is something you must guard against; but for an aggressive investor who is pursuing alpha returns, change is the biggest source of your earnings.
This article first appeared on the WeChat public account of “Idea Seal (ID: sxgy9999)”, telling the concept and method of value investment