This article comes from WeChat public number: Internet and entertainment strange group (ID: TMTphantom) , of: training PEI

In November 2019, the online red belt has been very popular, but it is not as hot as it is now. This strange thief has had several in-depth exchanges with several well-known MCNs and their investors. We also found some consumers who often watch live broadcasts with goods, and chatted with them intermittently for a long time.

At the time, we came to this conclusion:

  1. It is a highly professional behavior to bring goods to the Internet. Whether in Taobao, Kuaishou, or Douyin, the influencers who can create a lot of GMV are almost all “professional e-commerce influencers”. Relying on the general meaning of “entertainment network celebrity” or “star artist” is difficult to continue selling things, they can only play a supporting role by linking with “e-commerce network celebrity” and other activities.


  2. So far, no effective “e-commerce network celebrity training rules” have been found. The head net reds are slowly cultivated from countless candidates by relying on talent + hard work + luck. The live broadcast platform doesn’t even care how to cultivate an influencer-as long as the base of the anchors involved in bringing goods is large enough, there will always be several head influencers.


  3. The “Matthew Effect” of online celebrities carrying goods is irreversible, and the concentration speed is very fast. On Taobao live broadcast, it is almost impossible for a new head online celebrity to be born; in the fast-handed era, the era of brutal growth of e-commerce anchors is about to end; in Douyin, e-commerce live broadcast traffic has already been divided by a few online reds; There may be opportunities for emerging platforms such as Pinduoduo, but the time window will not be too long.



    What we didn’t expect is that in the next three months or so, the story of the capital market bringing online celebrities and MCNs will become bigger and bigger. Especially in the A-share media industry, MCN is almost regarded as the life-saving straw of the next generation. A large amount of capital continues to flow into the Internet to bring goods, thisIt seems that the subdivided fields are going to experience another “barbaric growth” pattern in 2016-18. Then, the sudden epidemic constituted an unexpected blow to the net red. Under the interference of many external factors, this segment is rapidly deteriorating.

    (The famous internet celebrity A-Set, nickname Setel, from “AI: Dreamland Archive”)

    First of all, the huge success of the head influencer has attracted more and more players. From Double Eleven in 2019, people with a little traffic want to bring goods, and people with a little capital want to open or buy MCN. The “star artist with goods” model, which has long been falsified, has been resurrected at the end of 2019; the “cargo variety show” with this inefficient and low interaction model has also been tried by many people. All in all, everyone does not believe in evil and feels that they can open a “new path.” It’s like reinventing the wheel, and it’s a square wheel.

    Second, the trend of homogenization of goods / brands brought by online celebrities is becoming more and more obvious. Nowadays, the products appearing in the top Internet celebrities such as Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya are often repeatedly brought by other head celebrities and waist celebrities in the next few days. If you are a senior buyer, you may find that all the beauty net reds you follow are wearing the same lipstick, all clothing net reds are wearing the same T-shirt, and so on. Of course, the way to bring goods is not only live broadcast, but also exposed on Weibo and small videos.

    Third, the epidemic has temporarily restrained the development of brand e-commerce; Tmall’s clothing and beauty products have been greatly affected in the short term. The top influencers are of course the least affected, but other influencers are likely to fail to find a way out, and then try to find other platforms with cargo. However, as mentioned above, the live streaming of Qiaoshou and Douyin has become stable; Pinduoduo Live has just been established, and there is no independent traffic entrance; Station B is doing buddhist shipping; Xiaohongshu is still restricted Direct pickup. Finding new places to eat is not easy.

    In fact, the driving forces behind the above three trends are the same: there are many people joining the Internet Red Belt Cargo Battlefield, the money is also large, and the supplyThe demand side is still growing; however, the demand side has not experienced an equivalent growth, but a brief decline due to the epidemic. Even if the epidemic is over, it will take some time for the economy to return to the right track. It is difficult for the mid-to-high-end consumer brands focused on online red belts to show any “revenge growth”. Therefore, the severe imbalance between supply and demand may continue.

    If the situation above continues, there are two interesting results:

    First, the existing mainstream platforms (Taobao Live, Quick Hand, Douyin, etc.) The e-commerce traffic and GMV are further heading to a few Internet celebrities are concentrated, and they can even be enriched to one-hundredth to one-thousandth of the Internet celebrities. Taking Taobao live broadcast as an example, Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi have opened up the gap with other anchors-only they can get the most advanced and scarce sharp goods, only they can get the biggest discount, and only they can get the whole market The earliest sale. Originally, their popularity was the highest, and the platform’s traffic support was the greatest. If a monopoly continues to form on the supply of goods, this is a natural monopoly.

    Uncertain economic prospects and weak overall consumption, of course, brand owners are more willing to spend marketing expenses on a few verified head influencers. Because the efficiency of their sales is really high; even if it is not high occasionally, the people of the brand will not be fired because of spending money on the head net red. Brands don’t try all kinds of novel games during the economic downturn. That’s too risky. The temporary downturn is generally conducive to vested interest groups to continue to expand their advantages, but will not help newcomers to lift the table.

    (The famous internet celebrity A-Set, good at singing and dancing, it seems that I have not brought any goods)

    Second, new influencers and MCNs will work hard to find opportunities on emerging platforms (Pinduoduo, B stop, watermelon, etc.) . However, these emerging platforms are not a paradise for “barbaric growth”-itWe either impose strict restrictions on the behavior of carrying goods, or we hope to make progress gradually, or simply do not take carrying goods as a development focus. If the new influencers, waist influencers and the MCN behind them are eager to achieve success, their bargaining power will be very weak and in a less favorable position in the face of the aforementioned emerging platforms.

    After all, for most platforms other than Taobao Live, the actual benefits of online celebrities carrying goods are limited. Unless a platform has both traffic, influencers and sources of supply, it can earn the most benefits from the influence of influencers. At present, only Taobao / Tmall can do it; Kuaishou is working hard to do it; Pinduoduo hopes that it can be done in the future. For those platforms that do not have the source of the goods and have no ambitions for the e-commerce industry, online red goods are only part of the content ecosystem, and it is not worth paying too much for this.

    We must also emphasize one point: even before this epidemic, many “head nets” had far less ability to carry goods than the market imagined. You can try to log in to some live broadcast rooms with Taobao, Weibo and DaDa in the evenings. (Double 11, Douyin Night is not like this time Representative) . You will be surprised to find that for some online celebrities that are familiar to you, the shipment of a product in the live broadcast room is only a few hundred pieces, and the GMV is only tens of thousands to 100,000 yuan. Compared to the average person, this figure is very good; however, it is very different from the level imagined by the capital market.

    Let investors like, as the benchmark, Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya, Simba, etc., are not “head net red” in the general sense, but “head in the head”. Influencer. They are like Messi in football, Cristiano Ronaldo, James in basketball, and Alpha Brother. They are not born and cannot be copied. Moreover, they are taking an increasing portion of the entire market.

    (Take A-Set as an example, as a waistline celebrity, you should not have much goods)

    If there is no epidemic situation