The arrival of a new round of “policy city”?
Editor’s note: This article comes from “ Future Car Daily ” (WeChat public account ID: auto-time), author: Li Huanhuan.
Author | Li Huanhuan
Edit | Xu Yang
On March 9th, China Securities Journal quoted analysts as saying that provinces and cities with large auto industry proportions and good local financial conditions, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, are expected to launch policies to encourage automobile consumption, including increasing licenses. Indicators, subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, subsidies for the replacement of “National Six” vehicles, etc.
The above analysts said that recently, Hunan, Guangzhou, Foshan, and other places have successively issued policies to encourage automobile consumption, including subsidies for autos going to the countryside, subsidies for new energy vehicle purchases, and encouragement of purchase of “National Six” standard new vehicles. Compared with the previous preferential purchase tax and VAT reduction policies implemented at the national level, the role of local governments in stimulating automobile consumption is also very important.
A sudden epidemic has worsened the car market that was already in the cold winter.
On March 6, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Federation of Vehicle Industry Associations, predicted that if there is no strong stimulus policy at the national level, it is estimated that the retail volume of automobiles in the whole year of 2020 will be 19 million units, a year-on-year decline of 8%, which is an increase from the end of 2019 and is expected to increase by 2020 The 1% forecast is down 9 percentage points.
Cui Dongshu said that due to the long automotive industry chain, it is difficult to fully resume production. The pace of production in February is far lower than the pace of resumption of work. According to the normal judgment of epidemic elimination at the end of April, the current downturn in the automobile market in February exceeds expectations. 3 -The car market recovered slowly in April and is expected to return to normal after May.
Car market sales plummeted year-on-year, putting direct pressure on dealers.
“China Auto Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey Results” released by the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that in February, China’s auto dealers’ inventory warning index was 81.2%, an increase of 29.5 percentage points month-on-month, and an increase of 27.7 percentage points year-on-year. The index far exceeded the warning line.
However, the dealer’s prediction of the auto market is not comprehensively pessimistic. 47.0% of dealers believe that market demand will increase in March, 43.1% of dealers believe that market demand will decrease in March, and 9.9% of dealers are expected to be flat with February.
