The following is an excerpt from the dialogue with Liang Jianzhang:
: The epidemic situation abroad has been very serious these days. Is your judgment on the tourism industry even less optimistic?
Liang Jianzhang: The domestic epidemic situation is now in sight. In addition to Wuhan, other areas are well controlled. But it is spreading abroad, and some countries regard it as flu, and we should not laugh at it. At the beginning we were serious, they segregated us, now they are serious. If we segregate them, once the segregation is cancelled, it will not be so easy. This cost will be increasing. As the weather gets warmer and the test of the drug comes out, the mortality rate will still drop, which will cause the flu, so long-term coexistence is also possible. This is the message I hope to convey. China is an export-oriented economy and cannot be decoupled from the world.
: The radical isolation policy may be because China has paid too high a price for epidemic prevention.
Liang Jianzhang: It is also possible to take different measures against immigrants of different risk levels. More than a month ago, the Chinese aid materials and wording left a deep impression on the Chinese. By the same token, in the face of a global crisis, China’s open attitude will also have more obvious effects than usual, of course, provided that the immigration department strictly implements inspection measures. In this way, China will hope to occupy a leading position in the new round of international exchanges after the epidemic has passed.
: Starting from around the Spring Festival, Ctrip processed millions of cancellation orders. How would you describe the impact of the epidemic on Ctrip’s business?
Liang Jianzhang: At the worst, there was a loss of 80% of domestic orders. Now it is slowly recovering. The domestic momentum is relatively healthy and will continue to recover. But international orders seem difficult to recover in the short term. Outbound travel, international flights, and high-star hotels do not necessarily account for the largest number of people, but revenue and profit account for a large proportion, so the blow is very big. Ctrip’s market share in China’s online travel industry is already very high, which can basically reflect the overall situation of the travel industry.
: Outbound travel and international air tickets are just the growth engines of Ctrip in the past two years. Will these business developments be interrupted or adjusted?
Liang Jianzhang: The long-term business direction has not been adjusted much, because this situation is at most half a year in any case. In the short term, international business is still subject to various cancellations and modifications, so we will focus more on domestic travel in the short term.
: Ctrip has just released a tourism revival plan for the entire industry, while investing in promotion and selling pre-sale products at a discount. In your opinion, what else is needed for this plan to really work?
Liang Jianzhang: At present, the domestic epidemic situation has not been completely eliminated. If it is completely eliminated, tourism consumption should rise soon. Everyone’s psychological role also has a certain impact, but I don’t think it will last for months.
: Looking back, you first realized that Ctrip needed a quick response to the epidemic in business. When was it about?
Liang Jianzhang: We actually felt the pressure very quickly, because the cancellation of orders was huge. On the one hand, we have withstood ten times or dozens of times the business volume. Ctrip has tens of thousands of staff working overtime. Now some foreign airlines cannot respond quickly, and most of them have been disposed of. On the other hand, our response is also very timely, providing customers with the option of non-destructive cancellation.
: To achieve a non-destructive unsubscribe, Ctrip needs to advance or even discount money. Is management worried about making decisions?
Liang Jianzhang: There is a bit of concern because the amount is also relatively large. However, as the industry leader, Ctrip’s capital and profitability have been better in the past, and this time it is againWhat an unexpected situation, guests feel more strongly. So we feel that it is still affordable.
: But this policy also seems to have been rebounded by some practitioners, such as small and medium travel agencies. Their products are not just a sales channel for Ctrip. You perform non-destructive refunds, which makes them bear tremendous pressure and more losses.
Liang Jianzhang: The losses must be borne by all parties. We try our best to coordinate the resource side, big airlines and hotels, they can and are willing to take on the whole, they have taken the big head. If the resources cannot be refunded, we will bear most of the losses. Our losses of several hundred million yuan come from here. For travel agencies, although there is no unsubscription loss, its opportunity loss is very large, and it may have been that this season earned a small part of its profits. Now, not only has it not been earned, it has also been lost, and the small and medium-sized enterprises have a relatively low capacity, so it is under great pressure.
: CEO Sun Jie has taken the lead in discussing cancellations with some international hotels, because those hotels did not realize that China’s situation was so bad at first. Is there anything more difficult that you can solve by yourself?
Liang Jianzhang: Jane happened to go to the World Economic Forum and met some hotel group bosses who were able to communicate with them face-to-face and solved quite a few problems.
Working from home is a more radical push. If employees want to go home to work, they must have a computer at home. This time it is more urgent, we bought more laptops directly and helped him with it. There will be a certain increase in cost, but speed is more important. I took this board.
: A lot of articles a few days ago took stock of Ctrip’s practice during the SARS period and regarded it as a successful experience.
Liang Jianzhang: At that time, we had a small base. After the epidemic ended, the service was good, and it bounced back very quickly. This time, our domestic share is already so large that it is impossible to rebound very much. Although the overseas share is growing faster, it is not the big one. Then the outbreak lasted longer and there was a tendency to flu in foreign countries. We still need to make long-term preparations.
: Did you really think of selling the company during the SARS period?
Liang Jianzhang: It doesn’t seem to be, and few people will buy you, I don’t know. At that time, no one could see it, and mobile phones were not so developed. It was a matter of survival or death, and the median was unlikely.
: What did you do back then, which ones are still applicable and which are no longer applicable? Such as non-layoffs, rotation and other categories.
Liang Jianzhang: We try our best to minimize the risks of employees. At present, the bonus, promotion and salary increase of our service personnel are still being done. The salary increase of non-service personnel may be delayed.
: The outbreak is for CtripDoes your business, organizational management, or industry integration bring some opportunities for change?
Liang Jianzhang: If it is a video or game company, there may be more opportunities in this regard. From the perspective of the tourism industry, we can only practice internal skills, polish the product and service systems, cancel and modify the guests, and publish real-time travel information related to the epidemic situation.
: Will the industry landscape change after the epidemic?
Liang Jianzhang: I do n’t think the online landscape will change a lot, but the destination may change. In some places, controls are tighter, and in some places, tourists may be more welcome. Whoever can do better promotion and promotion first will recover faster.
: 2003 was a special year for Ctrip. It survived SARS and went public on NASDAQ. If you look back at 2019 in the future, how would you define that year?
Liang Jianzhang: This year is a year that tests the overall service level of our company. We generally reserve ten times the amount of technical redundancy and up to three times the amount of personnel redundancy, but this time it is dozens of times the business redundancy. If there are such big ups and downs in the future, we are still confident. Of course, some problems are exposed, such as if the user’s self-help rate is higher, it will be more calm.
: Is this year the most difficult year since Ctrip was founded?
Liang Jianzhang: It must have been the year with the most losses. At least a quarter.
: This kind of difficulty at the operational level is more difficult than the situation of killing the Quartet and the industry in a strong competition?
Liang Jianzhang: I think it’s okay now, because we have more money. If it is resolved within three months, it will be more optimistic. If it really lasts for six months or more, it needs to be treated with caution. Not only us, many companies have big problems.
: You have been writing and speaking as an economist during the epidemic. Does this major public health crisis give you some deeper thinking about the operation of business organizations and companies?
Liang Jianzhang: I went to some countries at the beginning. At that time, I was in the Middle East and Singapore, and then I was concerned about the domestic epidemic. Foreign data, including data on flu, and how the flu affects the economy, are still relatively well-understood. Although I am not an expert in the field of epidemics, I still hope to analyze some economic consequences with everyone. The economic stagnation does not only affect the economy itself. The impact of the economic downturn on life expectancy may be greater than the epidemic. What Ctrip can do is limited, which is a problem for the industry as a whole.
: Will you ever realize the fragility of the business body?
Liang Jianzhang: No way, all companies are the same. Vulnerability is fragile, and the more advancedPlease be more fragile. Not only us, the movies are almost gone. Because rice is always eaten, agriculture is probably the least vulnerable, but the least vulnerable industries also lack the most growth.
: What performance do you think Ctrip has today when it comes to the epidemic?
Liang Jianzhang: SARS was still a very small company at that time, mainly to maintain staff morale and cohesion. Then the epidemic used to quickly put products and services in place and capture the rapidly rebounding business. Now it’s more about doing internal work. I did n’t take part in many things this time, just to help them make a financial investment. I think our service, technology, and business teams are doing a good job.