The average international seat revenue of the industry is about 0.33 yuan. The subsidy for co-flight flights is equivalent to a 5% increase in seat revenue. Assuming that all flights are co-flight routes, Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines will receive a subsidy of 150 million yuan to 170 million yuan in January, and Spring and Autumn and Auspicious will receive 28 million yuan and 14 million yuan, respectively. . Based on a five-month calculation, the three major airlines can obtain 800 million to 900 million yuan, 140 million yuan in spring and autumn, and 70 million yuan in auspiciousness. The subsidy is directly related to the actual flight execution.
In addition, airlines are actively financing self-help based on their own actual conditions. Recently, Industrial Bank Guangzhou Branch issued 1 billion ultra-short-term financing bonds to support China Southern Airlines; Sichuan Airlines ’ultra-short-term financing bonds were issued on March 4 with a scale of 1 billion yuan; Spring Airlines also issued companies with a total principal amount not exceeding 5 billion Bonds to further optimize debt structure, expand financing channels, and meet funding needs.
Hua Chuang Securities believes that there are two major differences in the industry this year. One is that Boeing MAX is still difficult to go home in China. It is expected that the low base in 2019 will overlap with some of this year’s demand and will shift back. The capacity growth rate may reach about 6%, and the gap of 4% of supply and demand brings price elasticity; the second is the overall difficulty of the industry under the impact of the epidemic or the change in the industry structure. The Civil Aviation Authority supports mergers and acquisitions in the industry. Restructuring.
Regarding the merger and reorganization of China’s civil aviation industry, Guotai Junan pointed out that state-controlled airlines are the main force of integration, and about three-quarters of China’s airlines are state-owned. Large-scale airlines have abundant resources at all times. Cyclic downward catalyzes industry integration. Deep integration is the key. The effect of integration depends on factors such as the degree of network collaboration between the two parties, the strategic capabilities of the main navigation division, and the safety management and control capabilities.
Guotai Junan believes that China’s aviation industry is still low in concentration. At present, there are a large number of airline companies and sufficient competition. At the end of 2018, a total of 60 airline companies operated. Compared with the United States, China ’s civil aviation industry is profitable The capacity is still at a low level, and the profitability of small and medium-sized airlines that are not listed, especially local shares, is generally poor. However, the epidemic situation does not change the long-term industry supply and demand trend, as well as the inherent value of high-quality airlines, and may accelerate the industry’s centralized integration.
Meng Tao, CEO of Yuanhangtong, a subsidiary of Qianfang Technology, admitted to the media that the current pressure on airlines in terms of cash flow is indeed very high, and it is difficult to alleviate in a short period of time. Multidimensional and various levels of policy support are needed. In addition, the epidemic may cause some airlines to face restructuring pressures due to huge challenges in their operations. This is also a passive optimization of the entire market and promotes the innovation and upgrade of the business model of the civil aviation industry.
This article is from the WeChat public account: China News Weekly (ID: chinanewsweekly) , author: Meng Xin < / span>