This article is from the public account “ Internet and Entertainment Strange Team (ID: TMTphantom) “, author: Pei Pei.
Q: How can I get schizophrenia in the shortest time?
Answer: Study A shares, Hong Kong shares and US stocks at the same time.
Q: I feel that the above method is not fast enough. Is there a more efficient method?
A: At the same time, we will study the A-share Internet industry and the Hong Kong / China stock market.
If you are an Internet professional and you often read the A-share market report on the Internet / media industry, you will find that their focus is a bit strange-in November last year, they were engaged in speculative cloud games, and since December last year, MCN has been working remotely since February this year. During this period, the eternal topic is: Tencent’s game is almost finished (NetEase also) ; some emerging third-party payment platforms will replace Alipay And WeChat Pay; several companies you haven’t heard of have made great achievements in going overseas, and have surpassed TikTok; etc.
Don’t get me wrong, of course, the above hotspots make some sense. Cloud gaming, MCN, and telecommuting topics are also being discussed by mainstream Internet companies. The A-share market also has some Internet companies with good growth and promising future (mainly game companies) . However, in general, the “Internet hotspots” that A-share investors are focusing on do not overlap with the industry mainstream, and they tend to be short-term; sometimes they are outdated and sometimes they are too advanced.
What exactly is causing this? If it is only attributed to the personal level and even morality of A-share investors and analystsQuality, that’s too simple and rude, too unfair. Unfortunately, many people, especially Internet professionals, do think so. More than two months ago, an executive of an Internet company I admired said to me seriously, “I usually despise A-share analysts.”
The atmosphere was awkward because I was an A-share analyst at the time. I was waiting for him to say “you are the exception”, but he didn’t say anything at all. Ah life.
Seriously, the culprit of the decoupling of “A-share Internet” from “mainstream Internet” is not the personal ability or moral quality of the practitioners Question, but three questions:
Mainstream Internet companies are unable and then unwilling to list on A shares.
In the last cycle, A-share institutional investors were scared by some Internet companies.
Consumer Internet companies do not fit the “mainstream narrative” of the current A-share market.
It is impossible to solve any of the above problems in the short term, so the “A-share Internet” will also maintain the rhythm of decoupling and independent development from the “Mainstream Internet”, and it is likely to be more and more marginalized.
First, mainstream Internet companies cannot “list” on A shares.
This is well understood. Three-year profit is the iron rule of the A-share market. (Except for the science and technology board) , most Internet companies It is impossible to meet this requirement at the time of listing. Especially for the platform-type Internet companies that burned money in the early stage, it is the right way to rush to list and raise funds and quickly establish a modern corporate governance structure at the critical juncture. Pinduoduo was listed three years after its establishment, and Qu Toutiao and Ruixing Coffee were listed two years after they were established. It would be a nightmare for them to wait for another three years for A shares.
Internet companies that can meet the “three-year profit” condition in the early days of entrepreneurship are often content companies, especially game companies.
Unfortunately, A-share regulators hate the two industries of gaming and film and television, at least between 2016-19So so. My favorite two-dimensional game research and development company, Miha You, has been in line since the beginning of 2018, has a clean net and good profitability. As a result, it seems that it has not yet attended the meeting. In the second half of 2019, the regulatory authorities stated that they did not object to the listing of game companies, but since then, no game company has successfully listed on the A-share market by IPO.
As for the science and technology innovation board, it is prepared for the so-called basic research and development giants that are “relevant to the national economy and the people’s livelihood” such as semiconductors, communications equipment, and enterprise software. Consumer Internet companies do not need to make fun of it.
In 2015, due to the extremely high valuations of A-share media and Internet companies, U.S.-China Internet companies did seriously consider privatization and return to the country, and several of them also achieved success. However, as of 2019, the valuation advantage of the A-share media Internet sector has basically disappeared-you can see dozens of P / E game companies, double P / B advertising companies and film and television companies. Some companies seem to have a scary P / E multiple, in fact because the profit is too low …
For mainstream Internet companies, the trouble of listing on A-shares is too much: issuing options (equity incentives) requires lengthy and painful review; M & A audits are stricter; refinancing audits are particularly strict; dual equity The architecture is even more non-existent. If none of the above things can be done, what else do Internet companies go public? Unless the A-share market can give a significant valuation advantage, unfortunately it can’t give it any longer.
So, the problem now is that apart from content companies such as games, mainstream Internet companies cannot and will not be listed on A shares; and A share regulators particularly hate content companies, especially game companies. This is awkward.
![]()
Second, in the last “big bull cycle” (2014-15) The “local internet giants” represented by LeTV and Fengfeng Group have smashed institutional investors.
In addition to the few who ran away in time, the investors in Shigekura LeTV.com have generally suffered indelible pain. At the time, there were many A-share “little giants” and “little unicorns”, from games to socializing, from e-commerce to going to sea. In 2016-19, the A-share media and Internet industry experienced a terrible super bear market, and it ran to the bottom three of the market almost every year. Almost all investors who dare to believe in the “local Internet myth” have been wiped out.
Not only the Internet, but also the film and television industry, traditional television industry, traditional advertising industry … no one dares to touch it. In 2015, just look for an A-share media company, and you will see reports from more than 20 securities firms; in 2019, two-thirds of A-share media companies will no longer write reports.
In this case, if investors still want to make money in the media and Internet industry, there is only one way: short-fry, speculation “cannot be falsified”. Because it is short-term speculation, no one seriously considers profit and growth space; because it is a “stock game” of swarms, so long as a concept cannot be broken in a short time, the game of grabbing chairs can continue.
For example: “Cloud games will eventually overturn all PC and mobile games.” This view, whether right or wrong, cannot be falsified in the short term. Moreover, the technical route and business model of cloud games are all immature and uncertain, and it is impossible to estimate the real market space, let alone the profit of a specific company. These two are exactly in line with the positioning of A-share investors in the media and Internet industry: they are used for short-term speculation, and they will go away if they are addicted. No one wants to hear the game company thinking about how strong their self-developed IP is, and how to publish innovation. Everyone wants to hear the story of “cloud game trillion market”.
Another example: Someone insisted that byte beating games to be played against Tencent, so they should buy “non-Tencent” at high prices. (that is, You ca n’t let Tencent distribute its own products) Game CPs, and even have to “spend a lot of money” to let them help themselves defeat Tencent. Obviously, it is not necessary for the byte beating to give third-party CPs “a lot of money”; in fact, it is the independent CP that “a lot of money” to buy on the byte-beating platform. However, A-share investors have no intention of tangling the details-the story of “byte beating a lot of money” can be applied to any game company that does not have a relationship with Tencent, and it will suffice for a few months.
Finally, since 2018, the consumer Internet (Chinese Internet industry has nothingAshamed absolutely mainstream) is no longer in line with the mainstream narrative of the A-share market.
Now the mainstream narrative is: independent and safe and controllable, strengthening basic research and development, doing 2B business, and forging ahead. Consumption of the Internet, whether it is games, e-commerce, video, social or payment, does not fit the mainstream narrative mentioned above.
Amidst waves of short-term speculation, few A-share Internet companies have never entered the list of “core assets” in the minds of A-share investors. The core assets must conform to the mainstream narrative, and must conform to the “macro trend” in the minds of investors. This is understandable; the problem is that Maotai does not seem to conform to the mainstream narrative. Why can it enter the list of “core assets” of all A-share investors? How about it? I don’t know that.
There is also a problem: Although experienced A-share investors, that is, old people who have experienced the last bull and bear cycle, are already familiar with the routines of the A-share media Internet industry and will not take short-term stories seriously, but they are still There will be people with less experience flickering in.
Life is like drama, drama is like life, buttocks always determine the head.
Until now, some people still think that LeTV was not a liar, but just bet too much to stop it. Some people also seriously think that Tencent games are paper tigers that are strong and strong, and Alipay and WeChat Pay can be easily subverted. Even iQiyi and Station B can be surpassed by an unknown new competitor.
Remember in 2015, I once visited a network video platform which is much larger than LeTV. (The name will be omitted, anyway, there are only a few candidates Object) . At that time, LeTV was still a popular company with a market value of 100 billion, one of the “BATL” in the mouth of A-share investors. The people on that video platform said very seriously to me:
“LeTV is not our competitor, it does not belong to our industry.”
I was a little surprised and asked, “Which industry should LeTV belong to?”
The other responded: “It belongs to the A-share industry.”
Why not today? How many “A-share popular Internet companies” do not belong to the Internet industry, but belong to the “A-share industry”? This is an interesting proposition, but I don’t think anyone will study it seriously because the price is too low.