This article is from WeChat public account: DT Finance (ID: DTcaijing) , author: Ami, He Shuyao
“I knew this was a pandemic long before people called it a pandemic.” Trump said in a question to reporters on March 17.
On the day Trump turned his face to reporters, another congressman was diagnosed with the new crown virus. In the next 5 days, the number of newly diagnosed patients with new coronary pneumonia in the United States almost tripled. As of noon on March 21, the number of confirmed cases had reached 19,000.
Animation: since the end of January, the development of the epidemic situation in the US states
Few people would think that the outbreak curve would also emerge in the United States.
As early as January, the Secretary of the United States Department of Health and Public Welfare, Alex Azar, also said in a public statement that “the United States has the best public health system in the world” and “has been monitoring since December This virus is actively responding, “” Being prepared for this epidemic … is a daily task. ”
As the world’s most developed economy, the United States has advanced medical technology and high-quality medical personnel, as well as a developed disease control and surveillance system. No one will doubt its ability to handle public health events.
So when everyoneWhen seeing the news that ordinary people in the United States have no access to detection, it is inevitable that they will ask “why?”
After we sorted out the timeline of the development of the US epidemic in detail, we found that in this epidemic, the reactions of government agencies at all levels in the United States and the general public have shown an inexplicable tangle. The pandemic, the Centers for Diseases and Prevention (CDC) , the US federal government, and even the average American may all be responsible for an out of control epidemic.
1. Americans who are vigilant under severe flu
The United States enters the flu season every fall and winter. Influenza is also a contagious disease caused by a virus. Vaccination is a more effective way to prevent it.
At the end of October 2019, many Americans were vaccinated against influenza as recommended by the CDC. Half a month later, outpatient cases reported through the United States ILINet (Influenza-like Case Monitoring Network) had fever, cough, or sore throat. The proportion of influenza-like cases exceeded 2.4%. The flu season that Americans are familiar with is back, but this time earlier than in previous years.
But it is precisely because Americans are familiar with the flu that they have laid the groundwork for a subsequent outbreak of new crown pneumonia.
During the flu prevention process, the United States CDC established a flu surveillance network called “ILINet”, which covers approximately 8.5% of the United States population. The data collected by this testing network is an important basis for the CDC’s response to the flu.
Influenza-like cases (influenza-like illness, ILI) It is an important indicator for monitoring the degree of influenza outbreak. Each year, the CDC calculates a national baseline figure based on the non-flu season. When the proportion of influenza-like cases exceeds this line, it means that the flu has begun to break out.
This year, 2.4% is the national benchmark.
We noticed that in the past 10 years, except for the 2009-20 outbreak of H1N1 influenza virus,In 10 years, most years will reach the national benchmark at around 49 weeks. (early December) . In the 2019-2020 flu season, the flu epidemic hit the line in mid-November.
In other words, the outbreak of influenza in 2019-2020 is almost a month earlier than in previous years.
The development process of the United States flu in the past 10 years, image source: US CDC
According to the mathematical model established by the CDC, by the week of March 7, a maximum of 36 million people in the United States had the flu, 370,000 were hospitalized with the flu, and 22,000 died from the flu.
Speaking for a long time, what does this have to do with the outbreak of new coronary pneumonia? Earlier, we briefly sorted out the American pandemic and noticed such information:
1. Influenza has similar symptoms to mild neo-coronary pneumonia, including fever, cough, and sore throat; etc.
2. The flu broke out earlier than in previous years. When the first confirmed case of new coronary pneumonia occurred in the United States at the end of January, Americans have been brainwashed by the flu for more than 3 months;
3. For non-professionals, comparing the infection data over the same period, the flu seems to be far more severe than new coronary pneumonia;
4. In the process of responding to influenza for many years, the United States has formed a relatively complete surveillance mechanism, and preventive measures are mainly based on vaccination;
5. According to the data of recent years, although the flu is serious and dangerous, it is indeed “preventable and controllable”;
So, when new coronary pneumonia appears, the average American’s psychology will be a bit subtle. They think the flu is more serious, but coping with it year after yearExperience has made them accustomed to it, and a perfect monitoring mechanism has established people’s confidence in the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and their sensitivity and vigilance have been continuously reduced.
In addition, the symptoms of new cough pneumonia, such as mild cough, headache, and fatigue, can easily be treated directly as influenza. Patients who are not serious will take medicine first to solve it. Everyone is used to and believes that the main prevention of vaccine The measures did not have the habit of wearing a mask and restricting travel-this opened the door for the spread of new coronary pneumonia.
The origin of the virus and other issues have not yet been determined. Let’s press the table first, but the big flu does cover the new crown pneumonia.
So we can see that, under the lens of Station B’s UP host Guo Jerui, on the streets of New York on March 16th, the people who came and went seemed to be in the usual rhythm, and not many people wore masks- Even at this time President Trump has declared the country into a state of emergency, toilet paper, alcohol, masks and other sanitary supplies have been snapped up.
Picture source: “My name is Guo Jerui”, the host of station B UP
But just the unsuspecting people who are accustomed to the flu will not let the U.S. outbreak focus now.
We mentioned earlier that the CDC in the United States collects daily data from an influenza surveillance network that covers 8.5% of the United States population, and there are many laboratories to analyze it regularly. Such a comprehensive mechanism should be quickly transformed into a nationwide virus surveillance system. The transmission of new coronary pneumonia was monitored.
But this network doesn’t seem to be working properly.
2. Failure of monitoring network, delay in obtaining test qualifications
U.S. CDC’s control action actually startedVery early. After receiving the epidemic notification from China in early January, the US CDC immediately notified the general public and medical institutions of relevant information.
A passenger who has just returned to the United States from Wuhan with symptoms and sees the information of the CDC and immediately goes to the medical institution for treatment. But at that time, the CDC set high standards for the detection of the new crown virus, and only those who had fever, respiratory symptoms, and had been to Wuhan were eligible to be tested.
Because of high standards, the passenger has been slow to be tested-it was not until a special request from a Washington state health official that he was offered the opportunity to be tested, becoming the first confirmed case of new coronary pneumonia in the United States on January 21.
At this time, a research team set up to respond to the flu in Seattle, Washington, had the ability to monitor the new crown virus. As a research project on flu, they collected information on many subjects with flu symptoms. If coronavirus tests are performed on these samples, the team can monitor the spread of new coronary pneumonia in their area-in theory, these institutions for influenza should have been a natural advantage for the United States in the prevention and control of the epidemic.
The problem is that the research team is in a research laboratory rather than a clinical laboratory. Even if they have the ability to monitor the virus, they are getting the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Until the endorsement, the research team has no right to publish any test results to the public.
Until the end of February, there were signs of community spread in the U.S. outbreak, and the FDA agreed to authorize states and laboratories to conduct initial testing on their own.
This is the reason why off-the-shelf influenza surveillance networks have been unable to play a role in the prevention and control of new crown pneumonia, and it is also a microcosm of the slow progress of new crown virus detection in the United States.
After the genetic sequence of the new coronavirus was released in January, CDC began to develop its own diagnostic reagents. In February, a set of nucleic acid detection kits were launched and distributed to states, but at the beginning, all test samples were Confirmation will be returned to the Atlanta city where the CDC is located.
A document issued by the Hawaii State Department of Health on February 13 states that “CDC will remain the only laboratory in the U.S. capable of detecting CoV-2.” It also mentions that “CDC sent earlier kits Difficult to detect … and replacement versions will be sent to all public health laboratories next week. ”
So You can see such a strange scene: people with detection abilityQualification, qualified people do not have a kit, samples of suspected cases across the country have to wait for final confirmation from Atlanta, and some of the kits provided by the CDC have also failed.
This time has passed for almost a month. Throughout February, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States rose by only 16 cases. In South Korea, which had already performed 36,000 nucleic acid tests on February 26, in addition to American diasporas taking evacuation flights, the United States conducted nucleic acid tests on only 426 people.
Later in the report, the media continuously asked the CDC “Why insist on self-developed reagents instead of using similar products already developed by the German team?” Michael Mina, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, explained that “CDC often ‘We are the United States, we are the most important public health laboratory in the United States, and we are not following other pioneers’ attitudes at work.
3. The constantly pulling CDC and Trump
In addition to the shortage of testing reagents, Americans have to deal with President Trump’s upset. On February 26, Trump said that “the risk of Americans is still low,” and he later stated that “the new crown virus is a Democratic scam.”
These speeches may make the CDC a bit tired, because the president ’s rumors became part of the work in this outbreak.
Early in March, the number of confirmed diagnoses also started to increase as testing capabilities improved, and when vaccines became available became one of the major public issues. On March 2, Trump declared that “the vaccine will be ready in a few months.” Subsequently, experts from the CDC came forward to dispel rumors, saying “the president urged us to prepare in a few months, but we said that the time is at least 1-1.5 years”.
After the epidemic worsened, Trump told the public that “patients can continue to work without treatment and their bodies can heal themselves.” The CDC immediately rumored that “patients should avoid going out and should inform medical staff.” This time, the Utah Coronavirus Task Force also stepped forward, marking Trump’s comments as misinformation, stating that “even infected people with very mild symptoms may pose a threat to others.”
We also noticed that during the new crown epidemic, the CDC released its budget report for fiscal year 2021. Budget expenditures dropped from US $ 6.84 billion in 2020 to US $ 5.56 billion, a significant drop of 28.7%. In other words, during the period when the pandemic was more severe than in previous years and when the new crown epidemic was prevailing, the CDC’s budget for the new year was significantly reduced-which is somewhat unintelligible.
Contradictions and bullshit continued until March. As of March 3, the number of confirmed patients with new coronary pneumonia in the United States remained in double digits until March 11.
March 11 was a turning point in the development of the US epidemic. On this day, Utah Jazz player Rudy Gobert became infected with the new crown virus, and the NBA announced that all games were suspended. That afternoon, Washington, DC, declared a state of emergency. The next day, the United States entered a state of emergency. The director of the United States CDC stated that he would provide free coronavirus testing across the United States.
Since then, the number of U.S. outbreaks has entered the fast lane, and celebrity infections are reported every day.
Before the epidemic in the United States, we studied the anti-epidemic process in Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran. We found that when the epidemic test comes, each country will expose different problems, such as slow administrative efficiency, political party struggle, Affected by cults, hovering between the economy and the epidemic, and so on. The extremely complicated machine of the state is really difficult to run as perfectly as expected.
The United States is no exception. The administrative efficiency of institutions at all levels is slow. The inexplicable people of the CDC, the state government, the federal government, and Trump … .
This article is from WeChat public account: DT Finance (ID: DTcaijing) , author: Ami, He Shuyao