This article comes from WeChat public account: Earth Knowledge Bureau (ID: diqiuzhishiju) , author: yoghurt not foam, drawing: Sun green
As Europe becomes a new “epicenter”, the epidemic prevention measures in European countries have gradually increased, and the lives of European residents have finally been affected. People in many European countries have opened their homes just like us two months ago. The place where life and exercise are also moved to their own balcony.
Get up early in the morning and embrace the sun
(Milan, picture from MikeDotta / Shutterstock.com) ▼
Residents have a hard time, and business operations are difficult. A number of world-renowned large European factories have also closed down factories in Europe under the impact of the epidemic and the country’s difficult control measures.
Europe is really going to be hit hard.
Tough times
At present, Europe has become the region with the most severe international epidemic situation, with a cumulative diagnosis of nearly 100,000, of which Italy, Spain, Germany, and France have been diagnosed in 4 countries.Two digits.
At present, the worst are the two southern European countries, Italy and Spain
On the one hand, the number of diagnoses is the largest, and on the other hand, medical resources are extremely tight.
(Picture reference: wikipedia——2020 coronavirus pandemic in Europe) ▼
Under the ever-increasing number of confirmed diagnoses, the EU Commission President acknowledged in an interview on March 18 that the EU leadership has underestimated the new crown pneumonia epidemic and should have taken severe preventive measures two weeks ago.
To this day, European countries are finally afraid to slack off. After Italy took the lead in announcing national martial law, the core EU countries-Germany, France, Spain, and other countries-have escalated their measures.
Do n’t think about it
(3.16 Kyle, Germany)
(picture from Hadrian / Shutterstock.com) ▼
In Spain, Prime Minister Sanchez announced that the country has entered a state of emergency on the afternoon of the 13th and began a 15-day “cities closure” measure. All people and private vehicles are forbidden to go out except for necessary and emergency situations, and it is best to stay at home; from 17 From now on, Spain officially blocks the land border, and only allows those who have Spanish nationality and long-term residence in their country to enter …
Empty …
(3.15 Almeria, Spain)
(picture from LaMons / wikipedia) ▼
Interestingly, the Spanish government ’s home isolation measures have also produced unexpected results, making people make long-forgotten phone calls again: The Spanish newspaper “National newspaper” reported that traffic data provided by operators showed that Spain Since the closure of the city, the number of calls made through landlines has grown the fastest.
In Germany, border controls on Austria, Switzerland, France, Luxembourg, and Denmark have been implemented since March 15. The restrictions have been extended to include Italy, Spain, Austria, France, Luxembourg, Denmark, and Switzerland on the 18th. National flights and entry from Denmark by sea are also restricted.
Federal police at the Kell crossing at the German-French junction
Check truck driver’s license
(picture from Hadrian / Shutterstock.com) ▼
In Germany, the situation varies from state to state due to different epidemic prevention measures. For example, Hamburg in Germany has stricter controls. Except for supermarkets and some restaurants, which must operate, all shops that can be closed are closed.
Drug stores can be opened, but masks and disinfectants for epidemic prevention are scarce
(3.15 Hamburg, Germany)
(picture from Romaans Drics / Shutterstock.com) ▼
In France, President Macron realized the seriousness of the epidemic and said seriously that his country was at war against coronavirus. France has closed the EU and Schengen borders on the 17th. In addition, all schools in the country have been temporarily suspended, all families and social gatherings have been banned, and the French people have been told that it is best not to travel except for purchasing necessary items, work, and doctors, and must be opened when it is not possible to travel A proof that the violator will be fined.
I want to go out and open a certificate
(3.19 Paris, France)
(picture from Frederic Legrand-COMEO / Shutterstock.com) ▼
And this week, because French schools have been closed, many employees have taken time off to look after their children at home, and the absenteeism rate of some companies has increased, which has also brought some hidden dangers to the survival of the company.
The government says it will not let out and cannot go out to work
(picture from Pierre Teyssot / Shutterstock.com) ▼
Except for the severely affected areas, other countries with less severe outbreaks did not dare to take it lightly and followed up similar measures.
However, the problem has also come. The stagnation of production and consumption caused by national martial law and border blockade may have limited feelings in terms of people’s lives, but it has generated the last straw that “squeezed” many European companies, and a large number of European companies Every day I play a game called “Life and Death”.
There are a lot of big factories shut down
On March 18, BMW in Germany announced that affected by the epidemic, BMW’s factories in Europe and South Africa will be closed for four weeks until April 19.
(picture from BMWGroup / twitter) ▼
BMW is one of the biggest European automakers recently announcing the plant closure, but it is clearly not the only one.
On March 17, Volkswagen announced the closure of its plant in Europe and suspension of vehicle production throughout the region: its plants in Spain, Portugal, Slovakia and Italy will close this week, while plants in Germany will Closed after Friday.
The fewer words, the bigger the news
(picture from Volkswagen News / twitter) ▼
On the same day, Daimler also issued a communiqué stating that it would suspend most of its production in Europe and some administrative work for at least two weeks. Daimler said that the suspension of production and work can better protect employees, interrupt the spread of the virus, and curb the spread of the epidemic.
(picture from-https://www.daimler.com/en/) ▼
At this point, the three major German automakers have all announced their suspension. However, before the German action, European car tycoons had already painted a “suspend production symbol.”
For example, Renault and Peugeot Citroen in France have announced on March 16 that they will gradually close factories in France, Italy, Spain and other countries; Italy’s Fiat plants in France, Italy and Spain have also stopped operations, including Ferrari. Production of vehicles including supercar brands ceased.
(picture from ferrari / instagram) ▼
In addition to European car companies, foreign car companies ’manufacturing plants in Europe have also closed down. For example, Toyota, one of the world ’s largest automakers, has also stopped operations in two factories in France and Portugal.
According to statistics, as of the 18th, the total number of auto plants announced by European automakers that have been discontinued or about to cease production has exceeded 70.
This phenomenon is actually reasonable: After the epidemic started to spread outward, global carsThe parts supply chain has been affected by poor logistics. At the same time, consumer sentiment and confidence in the epidemic are at a low level, making the automotive industry more in recession: European Automobile Industry Association (ACEA) said that the number of new car registrations in the EU, the UK, and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) decreased by 7.4% in January To 11.135 million vehicles.
The epidemic has greatly reduced consumer income
Invest more cautiously in commodities like cars
(picture from ACEA / twitter) ▼
Car companies that have been having a hard time encountering the latest blockade measures in European countries can no longer afford it.
Of course, manufacturers that are shut down due to the influence of production and consumption are not limited to car companies.
Airbus issued a statement on the 17th in response to the latest European quarantine policy and decided to suspend production at its French and Spanish plants for four days from March 18 to curb the rapid spread of the new crown virus; Renewable energy fan blade subsidiary LM Wind Power announced the closure of its two factories in Castellon and Leon in Spain; the fashion industry has also suffered a lot, and many luxury families including Chanel, Hermes and Gucci have also been forced to close. Own factory in Europe …
It only stopped for 4 days …
(Picture from Airbus PRESS / twitter) ▼
This is just a big company. The days of unknown SMEs will only be harder.
Expectable Pessimism
For any economy, the closure of a large number of factories is not a good thing. The same reasoning applies to Europe, not to mention that the closures are mostly high value-added vehicle companies.
According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the automotive industry is the core of European manufacturing, providing direct or indirect employment opportunities to nearly 14 million people.
Several major car brands are major taxpayers in Europe
（Frankfurt Auto Show Picture from El monty / Wikipedia） ▼
But in recent years, the European auto industry has visibly declined. According to data from the British survey company LMC Automotive, the number of cars sold in major global markets fell by about 4% in 2019 to approximately 90.3 million units, compared to 94.4 million units in 2018 and 95.2 million units in 2017. (Set a sales record) .
I don’t know what will happen this year … ▼
The downturn in the automotive industry can have a direct impact on the economy. For example, in Germany, the automobile industry is the largest pillar industry, which contributes about 5% of GDP and 4% of employment. It is also the main export product of agricultural exchange between Germany and Southeast European countries.
Take German Volkswagen, which owns Skoda, Audi, Porsche and Bugatti, and delivered 10.8 million cars to consumers throughout the year, more than any other car manufacturer. Relying on its huge size, Volkswagen is also a leader in the German manufacturing industry. About 44% of its 668,000 employees are in Germany. Therefore, the closure of this wave of factories means that hundreds of thousands of people are temporarily out of work. Considering the population level of Europe, its real impact should be more serious than we think.
German population of 8000W +, 66.8W people is equivalent to 0.8% of the population
(Volkswagen Factory in Wolfsburg, Germany. Picture from High Contrast / Wikipedia) ▼
Originally, in the last three months of last year, the German economy did not grow too much. I hope that the situation will rebound early this year.But the epidemic has accelerated the demise of this hope: On March 17, the German think tank ZEW Economic Prosperity Index was released, and the results showed the largest decline since the investigation began in December 1991.
According to the predictions of some European economists, even if the epidemic is over, the auto industry is difficult to recover quickly. There are three reasons for this: First, the overall automotive market downturn under pneumonia; Launching a “trade war” with Europe, which then has an adverse impact (the reason is also a huge trade deficit) , the third is that the funds are not enough to support the industry to electric Automotive transformation.
The United States is supreme, and our allies do not use it
(picture from JStone / Shutterstock.com) ▼
In addition, the suspension of head car companies has also affected the economies of other countries in a “spread” manner. For example, Slovakia, which uses automobile manufacturing and peripheral products as its pillar industries, has also faced the predicament of suspension of production of multiple automobile production and parts production plants. The entire Slovakia is also pessimistic about the economy this year.
Slovakia is the world’s largest car producer per capita
The largest proportion of exports is also cars
(Slovakia export picture from: Wikipedia) ▼
In addition, considering that the shutdown is not just car companies, travel agencies, hotels, and catering have also been hit hard. Some experts estimate that by the second quarter, the euro zone economies will shrink even faster than during the financial crisis, and France has already made a negative growth forecast of -1% of GDP in 2020.
Eiffel Tower is closed
French romance is unattractive in the face of the epidemic
(Image from: Trial / Shutterstock.com) ▼
In response to this expectation, the EU has no overall stimulus measures, but said that it allows countries to take flexible measures according to their own circumstances, allowing EU countries to increase spending. At this time, France, Germany, Italy and other countries have announced economic support strategies, providing loans for enterprises, providing subsidies, and introducing guarantee plans, hoping to help companies in the epidemic to survive the crisis.
The contradiction is that because the entire euro area shares the same monetary policy, if the fiscal stimulus policies of each country are different, they are (in fact, this is the case) , arbitrage space and policy tearing will inevitably occur. The weak eurozone nations, whose fiscal tensions are difficult to keep up with, will be dominated in this cash scramble, watching as money flows from the cut blood vessels to countries with stronger policies.
The British will not have such concerns
(picture from: photocosmos1 / Shutterstock.com) ▼
If the EU countries ’interception of masks and self-protection is only a moral dispute, then the unsynchronized disaster relief is a real battle for interests. This is the deepest level of all contradictions and the most influential. If the great ideals of the Datong, such as the European Union, the euro zone, and the Schengen area, continue to exist, we must sit down and talk about how to avoid this internal consumption.
But will the virus give them this time?
References
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/business/volkswagen-plants-europe-coronavirus/index.html
https://m.21jingji.com/article/20200318/0e55508f340a6fd5efc5d67d23e03276.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/20/business/global-auto-recession/index.html
https://fortune.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-impact-shutdown-european-auto-sector-volkswagen /
This article comes from WeChat public account: Earth Knowledge Bureau (ID: diqiuzhishiju) , author: yoghurt not foam, drawing: Sun green