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But for U.S. stocks, unlimited QE is still far water. What can quench thirst quickly is the trillion-dollar rescue plan that the market has been waiting for a long time. Therefore, US stocks did not open higher or go higher last night, but waited for the news of the rescue plan in the shock.

There was news at midnight in Beijing time. The two parties almost reached a consensus. The US stocks rose immediately, but the final proposal was not approved. The US stocks closed down. The stock index futures did not return until the market opened. can.

It is normal to fail. This bailout proposal requires 60 of the 100 senators to agree, and now there are 45 Democratic members and 2 non-partisans in the Senate. (Actually join the Democratic Party group ) , they are all waiting to give Trump and the Republicans eyeballs, it is almost impossible to agree to any radical rescue planDraw. Of the 53 people in the Republican camp, several were diagnosed with the infection, and it was more difficult to collect 60 tickets.

The international market has not paid much attention to the rescue of US stocks. Everyone has set their sights on an unlimited number of QEs. The A50 went up last night. After the market opened in the morning, (including Hong Kong stocks) also rose. This is good news for the investors who have been so long.

But how to say it, my heart is contradictory to hear the news of unlimited QE. This is because, although this heavy benefit can bring confidence to the global market in the short term, in the long run it will have great damage to globalization. After all, the US dollar is still the world’s strongest reserve currency, and the alternative currencies of RMB, Euro, and Japanese Yen have no possibility of replacing the US dollar in the short term.

At the same time as the Fed ’s move, several countries, including Germany and South Korea, also announced their own rescue plans. To say that it is to save the market is actually to throw coins. On the one hand, hedging the panic, on the other hand, he does not want to pay the Fed. Everyone is scrambling to mess up their money, and global inflation is only a matter of time.

How long is this sooner or later? According to the American Economic Association’s research, the average time lag between the sudden expansion of the money supply and the maximum impact of inflation is between 20 and 23 months. (depending on the consideration M1 or M2) . This number is still very empirical. For example, the 4 trillion plan at the end of 2008. The negative consequences of the upstream industry (such as steel) began to appear in 2011. It’s almost a 20-month lag.

This means that if economic globalization is not back on track in the next two years, it will be inconsistent with the US dollar (and many important currencies) . The suffering at that time was not as simple as an epidemic, and at least the European and American economies need to survive a whole new downward cycle.

Besides that, it is recommended that college students with foreign companies, foreign trade, and foreign dreams be prepared in the future.

Given that China is now deeply embedded in the role of a globalized system, even if we do n’t follow the water, it ’s inevitable that we will eat something together. Foreign exchange reserves will shrink in the first place. Now we should pray that Biden ’s comrades who can lead the Democratic Party will quickly squeeze Trump out with small shoes, and the United States will seriously consider restarting globalization from next year to minimize this wave of losses.

Another worrying issue is that the Fed emptied its hands overnight. What if the panic hasn’t stopped?

Quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy. It is accomplished by adjusting the account number when the interest rate has reached zero, and it is more lazy than printing money. Of course, since it is not printed in banknotes, the “currency” created by quantitative easing can only be used by way of accounting, such as purchasing bonds, including government bonds and some corporate bonds, to release the original debtor’s liquidity.

So the essence of quantitative easing is to support the price of bonds. But after all, the credit rating of the U.S. dollar is higher than that of U.S. and corporate bonds. The consequence of the Federal Reserve holding more bonds is to dilute the credit of the U.S. dollar. The strength of supporting the bonds should slowly increase. “.

This is the only way to use liquidity when it is incurable?

In “Mobile Is the sexual crisis coming? “ I mentioned, this timeThe liquidity crisis is not a real currency shortage. After all, before the epidemic came, the US dollar was still in a loose cycle and the bubble was blowing well. Money itself is not a problem. The key is market confidence. Neither the US government nor the Fed can know this.

Therefore, the Fed and the panic started fighting in three or five rounds, and it seems that there are only two explanations:

Either the continuous blowout and slump frightened capital and Trump ’s desire for reelection, and put frantic pressure on the Fed; or, the Fed knew that the U.S. epidemic was out of control, and confidence would not return for a while. Can only start with a big move.