This article is from the WeChat public account: Biodiscover (ID: biodiscover) , the original title: “Will the warming end COVID-19? “OF: Robert Taylor, from the head of FIG: IC photo

A new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought huge changes to our lives. At present, the epidemic situation abroad is rapidly spreading. Some people hope that as the temperature rises, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic will be weakened.

So, is the “pandemic” COVID-19 really seasonal? A 2018 paper published by Micaela Martinez of Columbia University showed that at least 68 infectious diseases are seasonal (see picture below) < / span>. With the coming of summer, the COVID-19 epidemic may start to weaken? However, experts who “like pouring cold water” warn not to place too much hope on it.

Image source: Science

Expert caution is correct, SARS-CoV-2, which triggered the COVID-19 epidemic, is a new virus, and there is no exact data on the seasonal variation of cases. 2003, citedThe virus that sent SARS (also known as SARS-CoV-1) Once the outbreak is quickly controlled, information about how it is affected by the season is also very important less. Can you find some clues from other coronaviruses that infect humans to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 will eventually become a seasonal virus?

A study conducted 10 years ago by the University of Edinburgh’s Centre for Infectious Diseases Kate Templeton found that there are three types of coronavirus HCoV-OC43) shows “significant winter seasonality”, both of them from patients with respiratory infections at Edinburgh Hospital and General Practitioners. These viruses appear to cause infections mainly between December and April, similar to the pattern of influenza. The fourth type of coronavirus (HCoV-229E) is mainly found in patients with impaired immune systems and has a stronger spread.

doi: 10.1128 / JCM.00636-10

Besides this, some early research suggests that COVID-19 may change with the season.

An analysis published on the preprinted platform medRxiv compared the weather in 500 regions with COVID-19 cases worldwide, suggesting that there is a relationship between virus transmission and temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity contact. Another study, also published on medRxiv , also showed that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19, but temperature alone cannot explain global changes in incidence.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.16.20037168

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20036731

Further research (still published on preprinted platform medRxiv) predicts that temperate warm and cold climate areas are most vulnerable to the current COVID-19 outbreak The impact is followed by arid regions. Researchers say tropical areas are likely to be least affected.

doi: https: //doi.or