This industry will eventually bypass the shiny new retail and return to the underlying logic of the old e-commerce advertising model.
Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “New business parameters” (ID: xinshangye2016) , author : Huang Xiaojun.
Looking at China Merchants Securities Research Report, Luo Yonghao sent a Weibo. The core idea is that he decided to do e-commerce live broadcast.
This Weibo referral has not reached 100,000 so far. But 6 hours after sending out, more than 1,000 brands sent emails to seek cooperation.
Luo Yonghao’s ability to take goods on Weibo is quite high.
By March 23rd, the thing about Weibo, a well-known Internet observer @Internet, revealed that Luo Yonghao had exclusively signed Taobao Live, with a signing fee of 80 million.
Seeing this news, “New Business Participation” began to prepare the topic selection, intending to talk about the internal upgrade of Taobao live broadcast on this matter, so as to extend to the development trend forecast of the entire e-commerce live broadcast industry.
But two hours after the topic was formed, 36Kr’s brand Media Tech Planet posted another article.
They announced that they had obtained exclusive news. Luo Yonghao and Douyin reached a cooperation. In addition to traffic support, the amount of cooperation involved reached 60 million yuan.
The person with knowledge of the planet said that Luo Yonghao first contacted Douyin and then issued a Weibo official announcement.
I didn’t expect that after the official announcement, it worked well. Other platforms (Editor’s Note: May include Taobao Live) also came to seek cooperation. In the end, Douyin had to add weight to the cooperative resources before finalizing the matter.
Compared to the “small news” of @Internet, the report of Tech Planet seems to have more details and looks more authentic and reliable.
But Tech Planet also said that they hadAsked to both Douyin and Luo Yonghao, but no response was received as of the date of publication.
The melon-eating crowd is so big and small. Lao Luo, where are you going? Send a Weibo to clear the rumor, or respond with a “yes” 呗.
Of course, this is not the focus of our attention today.
No matter which fish pond Luo Luohao falls into, the splash of the entire e-commerce live broadcast industry can’t be splashed. What stakeholders most desire to know is:
▨ Which cake will a big V like Luo Yonghao seize in the future?
▨ How will the live broadcast platform maintain the ecological balance in the system?
▨ Is there a chance for the waist / tail business / anchor to turn around?
The prosperity of trillions of e-commerce live broadcasts now and then
In September 2015, the official app of Hunan Satellite TV’s “I Am a Beauty” column and the WeChat public account were broadcast live online, and 1.92 million were watched and communicated online.
On average, 6400 new users flood into the live room every minute.
During the live broadcast, Mr. Beauty, a popular makeup artist, answered questions on the spot based on user comments and put forward effective solutions to comprehensively solve the problem of oily skin.
The new facial mask recommended by Xiaobu is the first time to buy it out in the “I’m a Big Beauty” APP store.
The beauty live broadcast model pioneered by the “I’m a Big Beauty” app has also become a beautiful conversation in the post-caller live broadcast field.
Screenshot from variety show “I’m a Big Beauty”
A month later, a video-on-demand platform called Meitan Beauty was officially transformed into a fashion live broadcast. The platform has exclusively signed over 250 beauty professionals, claiming to build the largest beauty copyright video library in China.
After the beauty industry took the lead in e-commerce live streaming, the industry’s appearance became clearer in 2016.
In March of this year, Amazon was the first to push overseas products through live broadcast, and the transaction size increased by 5 times.
Taobao Live was launched in May of the same year. 1 year, more than 10 million users have watched the live broadcast, more than 1000People have been anchors on Taobao.
The most famous of them was Zhang Dayi, the goddess of Ruhan E-commerce at the time. Data show that Zhang Dayi ’s debut show on Taobao Live has more than 410,000 viewers and a turnover of nearly 20 million in two hours.
This number doesn’t look great today, but it has already set a record for sales at that time.
In the next few years, there were many participants in e-commerce live broadcasts, such as Douyin, Kuaishou, Jingdong, Xiaohongshu, and Pinduoduo.
Taobao live broadcast has developed the fastest in this process.
In 2019, Taobao ’s live-streaming volume increased by nearly 400% year-on-year. On the day of Tmall’s “Double 11” in 2019, Taobao’s live streaming led to a turnover of more than 20 billion.
Hunting data shows that Taobao Live has become the favorite live broadcast platform for users in 2019 with an absolute advantage of 55.6%.
By the beginning of 2020, the epidemic will force offline physical businesses to shut down, and live streaming of e-commerce has entered a brief period of prosperity.
It is reported that in just one month, more than 100 industry types such as housing companies, car companies, restaurants, shopping malls, fruits and vegetables, supermarkets, museums, bars, etc. have entered live broadcast rooms on various platforms.
Live live sales, map / makepolo
On March 21st, Taobao launched the first live broadcast shopping festival in history, announcing that offline merchants can open Taobao Live with zero threshold.
This once again added a lot of activity to Taobao Live.
Xuan De, general manager of the Taobao content e-commerce business department, said that in the past month, more than 50% of Tmall merchants have sold live products; offline store live broadcasts have ushered in explosive growth, and merchants who have started store live broadcast 5 times more, 10 times more shopping guide for live broadcast.
Along with this, the talent gap in the live broadcast industry has become apparent.
Zhilian Recruitment released a report that after the Spring Festival, the demand for recruitment in the live broadcast industry rose 132% year-on-year.
Taobao’s live broadcast is particularly obvious, and its number of live recruitment positions has more than tripled from the whole of 2019, and the average monthly salary has once again risen to9845 yuan.
Li Hao, the founder of Mars Culture of MCN, had predicted that the GMV of Taobao Live will reach 250-280 billion in 2019, and the GMV of Taobao Live platform is expected to reach 400-500 billion in 2020.
According to the China Merchants Securities report watched by Luo Yonghao, the entire live e-commerce market in 2019 has an estimated GMV of more than 300 billion yuan, which is expected to impact trillions in the future.
The shadow of survival under the glory of industry
Taobao Live also faces the most serious KOL fault.
Data from China Merchants Securities report shows that the gap between Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi and third place on the day of Tmall Double 11 in 2019 showed a clear fault.
In the Taobao live broadcast, the top 10 KOLs with cargo capacity accounted for 75% of the institutional market ’s traffic and 80% of the turnover.
The TOP10 ranking of Taobao’s online influencer rankings compiled by Knowledge Economy magazine also shows that the total number of influencers of 5-10 fans is less than the number of fans of any of 1-3 anchors.
Li Hao had estimated that the Weiya team’s sales commission from Taobao’s live broadcast business in 2019 alone would exceed 3 billion.
It’s like Brazil’s rich areas and slums. Most participants in the platform are worried about double-digit views in the live broadcast room, discouraged by the volatile sales revenue, and feel helpless because they have no right to speak in front of the brand …
A business owner has once shared a live Taobao experience online.
Through the Ali V mission, the boss found a small anchor, took a look at her fan count and composition, andWith past data and business reviews, I think I can try it.
The live broadcast period of this little anchor is 8: 30-12: 00, and the product introduction is arranged after 11:00. The two anchors spent a total of more than 10 minutes on the small anchor, and the merchant also deliberately used several trumpet to interact with the anchor.
According to the boss, the products they recommend sell more than 600 pieces a month, and one is a promotional item, hoping to allow live broadcasters to consume it at a discount of 5 yuan.
But in the 10-minute introduction, there were more than 5,000 fans watching, only 39 people checked into the store, and the order payment was 0.
Talking about Taobao’s “bad business”, I have to talk about the star Li Xiang ’s zero shipment record.
On April 22, 2019, Li Xiang started broadcasting on Taobao Live. From skin care products to health products, from maternal and child products to red wine, Li Xiang’s merchandise involves various categories.
As a veteran star, Li Xiang watched between 600,000 and 700,000 livestream viewers, and the number of likes hovered around 2 million. According to Taobao internal news, this is considered shoulder data in the anchor.
From April 1st to July 21st, 2019, Taobao’s live broadcast live star ranking shows that Li Xiang ranks first.
But in one live selling mink, Li Xiang did not sell one, and the sales volume of the product has remained at 26 from the beginning to the end of the live broadcast.
Prior to this, Li Xiang also sold milk powder on live broadcasts, with only 77 cans sold.
You know, the outside world’s quotation for Li Xiang’s live broadcast is rumored to be 800,000 in five minutes. If the brand owner spends 800,000 to ask Li Xiang to broadcast for 5 minutes, and only sells 77 cans of milk powder or 0 mink coats, such a conversion is unacceptable.
It’s not easy to live a good business.
Relying on a huge small commodity market, Beixiazhu Village, 7 kilometers away from the center of Yiwu City, has become a well-known local “network wholesaler” gathering place. Here, live users get more than 20% of the goods.
But the live broadcast here is not the same as the promotion under the spotlight.
In order to sell a non-stick pan, Li Jiaqi knocked on an egg in the live broadcast room. Even if the egg is sticky pan, his sales are difficult for other businesses to match.
But in Beixia Zhucun, the anchor needs to fry the popcorn constantly to demonstrate the function of the pot. After a few minutes, she pours it into a large plastic bucket next to it, and repeats it.
The streamer ’s makeup has changed a bit for an hour.
But this did not relieve the anxiety of offline merchants too much. When Yu E-commerce swept across Beixia Zhucun, store rents here have increased several times.
Data shows that the average annual rent of an ordinary store has increased from 30,000 to 70,000, and there are several store-scale businesses with an annual rent of up to 400,000.
Behind the prosperity of the e-commerce live broadcast industry, it is still the squeeze and survival of all links in the supply chain.
Weia and Li Jiaqi will never be here again
The story in Wolf Totem:
On the grasslands of Inner Mongolia, wild yellow sheep, wolves and herders’ sheep form the triangle of the food chain. After the wolves enclosed a large number of yellow sheep in the water and froze, the herders rescued the surviving yellow sheep and released them.
When the educated youth cursed the wolves, it was abominable, but an old man said that the yellow sheep were the pests of the grassland. They ate grass to squeeze the living environment of the sheep.
But why release the surviving yellow sheep again? The old man must stabilize the number of yellow sheep, so that the wolf pack will prey on them in the coming year, not their own sheep.
All survival squeezes are to ensure the ecological balance of the grassland. Grassland is the big life, everything else is the small life that depends on the big life.
In the e-commerce live broadcast industry, every platform is a grassland. Overly spoiled wolves such as Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi, the yellow sheep, herders and even all others on the platform will struggle to survive.
For a platform, the small and medium-sized businesses and small and medium anchors, which account for over 80%, can survive, which is the basis for the stable and sustainable development of the platform.
But under the Matthew effect of the head anchor, the proportion of the traffic of the waist and tail participants is too small. Moreover, the live video is real-time content, it is difficult to socialize the precipitation like WeChat articles and Xiaohongshu graphics to achieve the long tail effect.
In other words, if there is no sales conversion on the spot, it means that the cost consumption cannot be supported by revenue, and the participants have made an irreversible failure.
Imagine if Taobao Live, which has anchors such as Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, Sydney, and Zhang Dayi, if you really signed Luo Yonghao with 80 million, will other merchants and small anchors in the platform have traffic to support their survival ?
Obviously not.
On March 12, Zhao Yuanyuan, the head of Taobao Live Broadcasting, resigned, announcing that the vast e-commerce live broadcast prairie opened the dominance of wolves and yellow sheep.
Zhao Yuanyuan is a key figure in the rapid development of Taobao Live Broadcasting. During his tenure, he supported Li Jiaqi, Sydney and other major anchors, and used these super IPs to empower Taobao Live.
After Zhao Yuanyuan’s departure, Ali’s official release information stated that the next step of Taobao Live Broadcasting is to focus on “live streaming store-oriented”, that is, to make live broadcasting a universal tool.
From this point of view, business self-broadcasting, industry beltSelf-broadcasting will be the direction that the government strongly supports. This has already been very different from the previous stage of promoting anchors to bring goods, which made Li Jiaqi Weiya out of the circle.
The problem of excessive concentration of big anchor traffic is not something that the platform is happy with. Just like Ruhan, who is the “first share of online celebrity e-commerce”, there is only one Zhang Dayi; the four-year-old MCN organization Papitube has only one Papi sauce.
In an interview with the media, Li Hao said that the head anchor’s bargaining power over the supply chain is too strong. In the long run, the cruel Matthew effect will eventually lead to an imbalance in the entire live e-commerce ecosystem.
This is why Taobao’s live streaming platform adjusts its traffic distribution strategy.
But this does not mean that other platforms will not have the next Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya.
In terms of Ali’s ability at the merchandise and merchant level, other companies will be unable to catch up for a while. E-commerce live streaming services such as Kuaishou and Douyin may still be in Zhao Yuanyuan’s era of Taobao live broadcasting.
Although a Simba ran out, these platforms still need a few extra IPs for drainage. From this perspective, Luo Yonghao’s prospects for the development of vibrato may be even greater.
E-commerce live broadcast will eventually return to the old e-commerce era
Taobao Live’s “live streaming store” is actually a new round of traffic distribution initiated by Taobao.
In the words of Liu Run, former director of strategic cooperation at Microsoft, Taobao is essentially an advertising company.
The seller opens a shop on the Taobao platform, and every transaction that is concluded does not need to pay any transaction fee to Taobao. But if a merchant wants to close, they may have to pay an advertising fee.
Because when there are too many sellers of the same product, an ordinary seller may be ranked in dozens or hundreds of pages, and cannot be found by the buyer at all.
At this time, Taobao provided a “through train service”. Sellers can improve their rankings through auction rankings and buy advertising space to display products in order to have traffic.
Zhu Ning, the former chief product designer of Alipay, said that if a business on a traditional e-commerce platform (Taobao / Tmall) has a turnover of 10 million, it will pay at least 15% -20% of the traffic fee; 100 million businesses have to pay 30% -40% of traffic costs.
Early since 2014, after the daily flow of e-commerce platforms exceeds 200 million, real user growth cannot be achieved.
The disappearance of the Internet demographic dividend is vividly reflected in these data.
How to revitalize these stocks again? Wang Xing said: “The number of users cannot be doubled, but the value that users can create (ARPU) is far more than doubled.”
In order to capture these doubling space, the US Mission’s one position + another position seems to have endless expansion. In the field of e-commerce, the use of live broadcast to stimulate users to place orders, there are also different approaches.
When live broadcast becomes TaoIn the normal state of Bao merchants and Tmall merchants, the right to emerge from the live broadcast window will be another traffic business.
Before that, merchants were bidding for graphic content; in the e-commerce broadcast era, merchants were bidding for live content.
It can be concluded that this industry will eventually bypass the shiny new retail and return to the underlying logic of the old e-commerce advertising model. N
Reference:
[1] 60 million shaking hands in hand, Luo Yonghao started live streaming-Tech Planet
[2] Xuan De: Taobao Live is the “commando” of the new retail in the future-Taobao list
[3] Li Xiang live broadcast can not sell a mink, Wei Ya sells a thousand beauty instruments, the star is not as good as the Internet with the goods? ——Tencent.com
[4] 100 yuan failed in Taobao live broadcast experience, the conversion rate is extremely bleak-Sohu
[5] Visit Yiwu Kuaishou Live Broadcasting Village: Here the internet celebrities make money and work hard-Qianjiang Evening News
[6] Taobao live broadcast GMV is expected to reach 400-500 billion in 2020. Will the mainstream e-commerce ecosystem be disrupted by this? ——Internal reference for new consumption
[7] Taobao Live Streaming Strategy Upgrade Former Leader Zhao Yuanyuan Resigns and Starts a Business ——
[8] If you go back to 2012, can you also create a compliment? ——Liu Run