Time is the best criterion for testing the OMOMO model.

Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “Party Finance” (ID: jiafangcaijing2019) , Author: Flower brother.

2020 should be the year when China ’s offline advertising market recovers. Many consulting companies, such as iResearch, have given different growth expectations, but the sudden fall of the epidemic situation will jeopardize China ’s offline advertising market growth in 2020. Overshadowed.

If you look at the time dimension of 5 months, offline advertising should be one of the worst tracks during the epidemic. If you extend this time dimension to 5 years, offline advertising is standing at a turning point in fate.

This epidemic has pressed the “pause button” for the Chinese economy, but with the outbreak of long-suppressed consumer demand, it is inevitable that offline advertising will return to normal, especially in the second half of the year, which will inevitably witness retaliatory growth .

More importantly, this epidemic will restructure offline advertising, allowing the industry to accelerate its evolution towards OMOMO. Data, AI, and thousands of people are on the fast track.

About this “black swan” opportunity, Hua Ge’s thinking logic is as follows.

01 Be sure to live under the impact of the epidemic, Stop loss methods are slightly different

Affected by the economic downturn in 2019, the advertising industry was already in a slump. Now, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is even more miserable. Especially for offline advertising, the value of a large number of offline ads is reduced, the conversion effect is less than expected, and the mainstream of advertising is lost …

The essence of Internet business is traffic. With traffic, advertising is valuable. In order to prevent the spread of the epidemic, strict restrictions are imposed across the country. Unlike online advertising, scenes such as shopping malls, subways, cinemas, restaurants, and office buildings that outdoor advertising relies on have become empty, and the flow of people has declined precipitously.

If there is no flow of people offline, the value of resources for outdoor advertising tends to be zero, and it is reasonable for advertisers to reduce their delivery.

Furthermore, regular customers of outdoor advertising are also seriously damaged. Taking Ctrip, the leader in the OTA field, as an example, Ctrip predicts that in the first quarter of 2020, net revenue will decrease by 45% to 50% year-on-year. Excluding equity compensation expenses, operating losses for the first quarter of 2020 were 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion yuan.

Under the impact of the epidemic, the retail, fast-moving consumer goods, catering, film, television, and tourism industries have suddenly stagnated, and the corresponding investment budget will be reduced or even zero, which will directly affect the revenue of offline advertising companies.

The “Black Swan” incident caught people by surprise. Customers of the original offline companies have turned to online to launch.It’s even worse. For offline advertising companies, being alive is the only goal. But how to live is another problem for enterprises.

In this context, outdoor advertising media must not only leverage external forces (associate with well-known brands, take advantage of anti-epidemic propaganda), but also build internal skills (strengthen technical reserves and service levels). Here are some head companies for example. Under the epidemic situation, the measures taken by head players may provide some reference for the industry.

△ Focus on self-help Jiang Nanchun incarnate Li Jiaqi

From February 16th, the chairman of Focus Media, Jiang Nanchun, has transformed into “Li Jiaqi in the venture capital circle” and started live broadcasts one after another, from Zhenghe Island, entrepreneurial dark horses, business academies, etc. The toB platform draws traffic and taps the consumer minds of potential customers. Of course, the conversion effect is not timely.

△ Trendy self-help marketing One thousand self-damaging eight hundred

On February 21, Xinchao Media decided to donate 10 billion regular-price advertising resources to donate to the caring enterprises during the epidemic. The advertising gift amount of each enterprise is equivalent to the donation amount of the company’s love for this epidemic situation (how much to donate, how much to send, the maximum is not more than 50 million yuan in the regular publication price). This is a brilliant outbreak of public relations and a self-rescue action to throw olive branches to large corporate customers. However, the industry generally believes that this trend may make it miss the basic business of small business customers that it depends on. It is necessary to be careful of customers and the market Lost awkward situation.

△ Baima saves itself Looking for potential investors

On January 24, Baima Outdoor Media (00100.HK) issued an announcement that the company would like to provide the company shareholders and potential investors with the latest information. Clear, Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. holds about 50.91% of its shares The strategic review of the stock continues, but CCOH has started preliminary discussions with a potential buyer. CCOH has not yet made any decision, and has not entered into any clear agreement with anyone regarding the implementation of potential transactions.

△ Yashiwei’s self-rescue Introducing Ant Financial Services

On November 20, Yashiwei announced that the company intends to issue a total of 35.767 million shares to Ant Financial, with a subscription price of HK $ 4.10 per share, a discount of approximately 12.77% from the closing price of HK $ 4.7 on November 20. The net proceeds were approximately HK $ 143 million. The company stated that the proceeds will be used for general working capital and funds for its China and Singapore projects. And the company is considering the possibility of spin-off of the group’s operations in Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and Macau and an independent listing on a recognized stock exchange.
The inflection point of offline adsDuring the epidemic, leading companies in Focus and other industries actively participated in the epidemic prevention and control publicity and further strengthened their brand influence; for example, the trendy media through layoffs and salary cuts to fully meet the cold winter; Digital marketing platforms such as Jingdong Molybdenum rely on the advance layout of intelligent advertising terminals.

Fortunately, offline advertising companies have generally received financing in 2019, and their book cash is relatively safe.

02 Waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic, Consumer retaliation is an opportunity

With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, people’s work and life will return to normal, and offline advertising will become warmer. Although we can’t accurately determine the end time of the epidemic, we can learn from the impact of the SARS epidemic on outdoor advertising.

The inflection point of offline advertising

According to CODC data, the low point of outdoor advertising in 2003 appeared in June, and with the end of the SARS epidemic (which basically ended in July 2003), outdoor advertising has shown an upward trend.

The outbreak is just during the Spring Festival. The peak of offline consumption will soon reach the freezing point, adding the downward pressure of the economy. The negative impact on outdoor advertising during the epidemic period is very deep.

Now the epidemic situation in China has been effectively prevented and controlled. The duration of the domestic epidemic situation is expected to be shorter than that of SARS (November 2002-July 2003). All walks of life are actively resuming production, and offline traffic will return to normal. . It is believed that from the second quarter, the advertising of various industries is also expected to pick up, especially in the catering, tourism, and movie industries that have suffered a lot from the impact. Outdoor advertising will also usher in a new round of growth.

Jiang Nanchun, the founder of Focus Media who experienced SARS in 2003, also predicted that after this epidemic, most head companies and head brands will not only step on the brakes, but also step on the accelerator.

It’s only a matter of time before lifting the ban, offline industry will usher in normal, outdoor advertising will also rebound. Hua Ge believes that after the epidemic, consumer demand will follow the recovery path of “warm up-outbreak-normal”.

A warm-up period

Even if the inflection point appears, society still needs a period of recovery. Affected by the “tail” of the epidemic, consumer demand for offline consumption has increased significantly compared with the epidemic period, and the flow of people has rebounded but has not returned to the pastLevel. For advertisers, this is a signal for outdoor advertising, but the scale of the placement is not very large, it is just a tentative placement.

B Outbreak period

We must know that the epidemic has not eliminated people’s consumer demand, but has suppressed demand in the short term.

When the impact of the epidemic has completely disappeared, return to work and school start to normal. Due to the long-term suppression of the epidemic, consumer demand at this time will continue to rise for a period of time, and a round of “retaliatory consumption” will appear. Although consumer income will decrease during the epidemic, confidence in short-term consumption will not diminish.

The flow of people has returned to normal levels and is even higher than normal. Offline consumption led by FMCG and food will have explosive development, and the outdoor advertising will usher in a wave.

Hua Ge also interviewed friends around him. Most people will resume offline consumption within one week to one month after the epidemic, mainly for dinner, shopping, and tourism.

C normal period

After another round of explosive consumption, consumer demand will also resume normal levels before the epidemic. “Retaliation consumption” is more emotionally driven, and the duration is not very long, it is expected to be around one month.

Although the epidemic is not over, competition has already begun for outdoor advertising companies.

As BCG’s report on the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic states: “Brands should be deployed in advance before the recovery comes, so as to stand out from the competition after the epidemic has ended.”

The key point here is that, in addition to regular fast-moving consumer brands, such as regular customers of Xiaoxian Stew, Dong’e Ejiao, Ruixing Coffee, etc., based on 5 kilometers of life radius of food, education, Services and other categories will enter a recovery period.

This means that living quarters will become a key advertising channel.

03 The epidemic is forcing the reconstruction of offline advertising, The OMOMO model will become popular

A crisis means a change in the industry. The epidemic was equivalent to a stress test, which forced companies to upgrade and reform themselves.

In the opinion of Ge Ge, the epidemic is restructuring the offline advertising industry, and OMOMO will become the main theme. OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) refers to the deep integration of online and offline. This business model is a concept proposed by the founder of the innovation workshop, Li Kaifu, for new retail.

He believes that the impact of the Internet on the real economy has gradually deepened through the pure offline era, e-commerce era, and O2O era. In the future, the new business wave of OMO will promote offline business to complete online and offline integration within 10 years.

The offline advertising industry todayAfter being forced to open the OMO model, Huage believes that the OMOMO (Online-Merge-Offline-Merge-Online) mode is the complete closed loop. There are four basic standards for this most important change direction of offline advertising in the next five years.

Standard configuration one, advertising terminal is fully intelligent

After the epidemic, various industries are awaiting prosperity, especially for the outdoor advertising industry, and it will accelerate into the period of ecological remodeling. The traditional forms and effects of delivery have been unable to meet the needs of all parties in the industry, and the digitalization of the industry and the online upgrade of products are imminent. With the popularization of 5G and cheaper smart chips, 100% intelligentization of offline advertising terminals is an inevitable trend. Through the application of digital technologies such as AI and IOT, the core advantages of intelligent terminal management will gradually emerge.

Standard two, online advertising data

Advertising is essentially advertising, that is, passing effective information to users. The acquisition of effective information will become the key word of the entire marketing industry. Consumers need effective information (precise delivery), brands need effective information (effect conversion and monitoring), and regulators need effective information (data security). How to obtain and deliver effective messages cannot be separated from online and offline data.

In recent years, the marketing circle has set off the pursuit of unity of product and effect, and the effect of traditional offline advertising has been questioned many times. As we all know, there are three major problems in offline advertising: it is difficult to select a point before the investment, the cost of monitoring and broadcasting is high, and it is difficult to quantify after the investment.

How to solve these three major problems, nowadays, the head platforms of outdoor advertising have chosen digital layout. Through the use of artificial intelligence, big data, IoT and marketing knowledge maps to form a rich user label and segmentation field, help advertisers accurately match users, guide data placement, optimize scenario-based resources, formulate pricing strategies, and evaluate delivery effects to achieve Quickly reach the target population, optimize the effectiveness of delivery, and maximize the effectiveness of marketing.

In the future, digital marketing capabilities will be the key to platform competition. Now affected by the epidemic, companies have to slow down, but this is not a bad thing. On the contrary, platforms can cultivate internal skills, enhance digital marketing capabilities, accelerate digital transformation, and meet more fierce competition after the inflection point.

Standard three, advertising is sales.

With the maturity of face recognition technology, payment channels, mobile accounts, address authorization and other channels, the most ideal advertising model is delivery-to-contract, which allows consumption decisions to be made directly in the marketing scenario.

Standard four, offline public domain traffic online private domain

At present, the main mode is to obtain online data for analysis and offline advertising. This is a common operation of many brands, but in fact, The end of advertising and the end of brand marketing.

For the brand side, it is more important to convert the data obtained offline to online. Through data precipitation, it helps to manage brand equity and make advertising work well. With the effective feedback of post-investment data, advertising is no longer a cost, but a convertible investment income.

Similar to the cooperation models of Jingdong Molybdenum + Jingdong Mall, Focus + Alibaba, Trendy + Baidu, the most important thing is how to use technology to convert the offline public domain exposure traffic into the private domain of the brand. Traffic is the long-term winner.

Pure theory is too boring. Huage takes Jingdong Molybdenum’s advertising on an air-conditioning brand as an example, and I can show you that when the complete closed loop of OMOMO (online-offline-online) is completed, the advertising will be A fundamental change has taken place.
The destiny inflection point of offline advertising

As above, the advertising based on OMOMO model will be opened online and offline Data, restore user footprints (browsers who have n’t purchased a product while browsing & adding a product, etc.), and screen offline distribution outlets for targeted delivery, so as to effectively increase the online purchase rate, and because of the same platform ecology, merchants can pass The critical path, this public domain traffic is transformed into the shop’s private domain traffic.

This is just one example of platform digital marketing. In the era of rapid development, all companies are facing problems such as extensive operations. As stated by Hua Ge, the past forms and effects of delivery have failed to meet the needs of the brand side, and the digitalization of the industry and the online upgrade of products are imminent. In fact, Jingdong Molybdenum Media is using its own digital technology capabilities to help the industry increase the speed of transformation and upgrading.

At present, compared with Focus and Trends, Jingdong Molybdenum Media, which is backed by Jingdong Mall and Jingdong Digital, has a weak starting advantage. In the future, whether Focus + Ali, Trends + Baidu / Jingdong can form 1 + 1 > 2 The effect is unknown.

Time is the best criterion for testing the OMOMO model.

04 Few thoughts of Huage, Offline ads will also have thousands of faces

Now that digitalization is infiltrating the outdoor advertising market, more and more giants are beginning to make efforts, which has also attracted a lot of capital investment.

The three characteristics of scene advertising, infinite scalability and compulsory have also attracted a large number of advertisers to switch to outdoor advertising. For outdoor advertising, Hua Ge also has the following light considerations:

1. Outdoor interactive advertising upgrade

In the article “Top Ten Marketing Observations in 2020: The Integration of Advertising and Private Domain Traffic” predicts that in 2020, the advertising industry will enter an era of no interaction and no advertising, and interaction is the effect. In the 3G era, graphics and text are mainstream, in the 4G era, short video live streaming is mainstream, and in the 5G era, interaction is mainstream. In 2020, more and more interactive advertisements will appear outdoors, allowing users to immerse themselves in the interactive experience and pull the distance between brands and users.

2, video replaces graphics to become mainstream

With the development of 5G technology, the transmission rate of the network in the future can reach 10Gbps, which means that it takes less than one second to download a high-definition movie, and the video output will be improved. In addition, compared to static graphics, people are more likely to be attracted by dynamic video, and video ad formats will be more in line with user habits. This also means that video will replace graphics and video scenes will become the mainstream of outdoor advertising.

3, the advertising scene is more diverse

In addition to traditional elevator advertising, the category of advertising scenes will rapidly expand under the development of capital, including elevator IoT screens, elevator projections, Hengxiu, frame posters, express cabinets, barriers, access control screens, access control light boxes, communities Bulletin board, etc. Taking Jingdong Molybdenum as an example, it has more than 55 million POI points in more than 400 cities across the country, covering communities, retail, travel and other scenes, including more than 2 million frame ads, 160,000 elevator TV screens, and community access control screens. More than 100,000, it can be said that smart advertising scenarios will be everywhere.

4. Thousands of people in outdoor advertising

With the development of AI technology and big data, we have seen that online advertising will recommend personalized ads based on personal interests. From thousands to thousands of people, outdoor advertising in the future will also be recommended based on personality. Customize by region, community by custom, even by individual.

5. The industry’s reshuffle speeds up, and the “big fish eats small fish” effect is obvious

For some small and medium-sized enterprises, there is not enough cash flow, and I am afraid that we cannot wait for the dawn before darkness. With the advantages of their own funds and technological strength, head players will continue to merge and acquire the resources of closed SMEs, and the industry’s reshuffle will accelerate. For the outdoor advertising industry, it will accelerate into the period of ecological remodeling. As online traffic competition has become marginal, it has forced advertisers to start expanding offline traffic. After the epidemic, the effect of “big fish eating small fish” will also be more obvious.

Postscript of Brother Hua:

The worst moments also gave birth to the best beginnings. In 2020, being alive means everything. I believe that after a long winter, offline advertising will usher in a brighter spring.