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Sunetra Gupta, the theoretical epidemiological professor who led the research, said (Sunetra Gupta) This result is confirmed, which means that less than one-thousandth of the people infected with coronavirus are seriously ill and need hospital treatment. The vast majority of infected people have very mild or no symptoms at all.

Gupta said: “We need to immediately start a large-scale serological investigation, that is, antibody testing, to assess our current stage in this epidemic.”

According to the model of (Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group) of Oxford University, a novel coronavirus pneumonia = “text-remarks” label = “Remarks”> (Covid-19, 2019 Coronavirus Disease) Arrive in the UK no later than mid-January. Like many emerging infectious diseases, the first transmission of the new crown virus in the UK, after quietly spreading for more than a monthIt was officially recorded at the end of February.

This study from Oxford University is based on the “susceptible-susceptible-removal model” of new coronary pneumonia (SIR model) , data Sources are reported cases and deaths in the UK and Italy. Researchers have made what they think is the most likely hypothesis about the behavior of the virus.

The results of model predictions show that in the absence of interventions, the outbreak in the two countries will last for about 2-3 months from the occurrence to the end. Before the first death case was reported, the outbreak in the two countries had continued At least 1 month. As of March 19, 36% -68% of the population in the UK may have been infected with the new crown virus; while in Italy by March 6, 60% -80% of the population may be infected with the new crown virus.

The British government ’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Valence, said in an interview earlier that “ (infected population reached) 60% Is the number required to obtain (New Crown Pneumonia) for herd immunity. ”

This model brings the concept of “herd immunity” back into focus. Herd immunity (herd immunity, group immunity) , also known as cattle herd immunity, first refers to the resistance of livestock herds to infection. High levels of herd immunity indicate a high percentage of animals in the population that are resistant to infection. Because the likelihood of an epidemic depends not only on the number of resistant individuals in the animal population, but also on the frequency of contact between individuals in the animal population. If 70% -80% of the animals in the population are resistant, a large-scale outbreak will not occur.

The same principle can be applied to the crowd, except that Britain is pinning its hope on the natural immunity of young people.

Earlier on the 3rd of this month, the United Kingdom announced a 27-page action plan to combat the new crown virus. The plan will be implemented in four stages, including curbing the virus, delaying transmission, researching cures and mitigating the virus. Impact.

On March 12, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (Boris Johnson) said that the British epidemic has entered the second stage, from the first The “containment” in one phase shifted to the “delay” in the second phase. The core strategy is to allow most mild patients to heal themselves, and the elderly to consciously isolate, thereby generating “herd immunity” over time to prevent the epidemic of the new crown virus.

As soon as this statement is made, the world is uproar.

British Government Chief Scientific Officer Patrick Valance (Sir Patrick Vallance) believes that New Crown Virus is likely to become ” “Seasonal flu-like presence,” which means every year. If the vast majority of people can build up herd immunity after being infected with the virus, more people will benefit from it, so that the effect of “reducing transmission and protecting those vulnerable groups” can be achieved.