Ten billion dollars will become the basic threshold for entrepreneurial success. A billion-dollar company will struggle to survive independently and will become a vassal of the giant to serve the giant.

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “100 people in the new economy” (ID: qiyejiagc) , author : Li Zhigang.

We are optimistic about China’s future.

Even if the epidemic casts a heavy haze on the Chinese economy in 2020, we are so convinced.

The current disaster will have an impact on China’s economy for at least two or three months.

It’s a double turning point:

First, it will accelerate the closure of some companies. In 2019, in our small-scale exchanges with some CEOs and investors, we talked about our prediction for 2020: many SMEs will not have a good life. Starting from 2020, there will be a large number of entrepreneurship in the next three years. Company closures. This “Black Swan” incident will significantly accelerate this process.

Second, it will bring reshuffle and rebirth opportunities to many industries. I told the CEO students in the first class of the Shanhai Growth Camp in September 2018 and the first class of the second class in August 2019. The future health will be a trillion-dollar market, and it is expected to enter in 2020. The timing of the big health industry will explode around 2025. However, in the past month, the country paid a trillion-dollar economic cost to the nation’s people for a health lesson. This will accelerate the development of the large health industry, and there are obvious opportunities for upgrading in the fields of pharmaceutical distribution, diagnosis and treatment, and community infrastructure.

On a five-year or ten-year time scale, the epidemic is only a short-term twist and turns. It is the lower and more general laws that determine the future trend of China’s economy.

Why are we optimistic about China’s future? Because of China’s huge economic volume and complete industrial system; because of the 1.4 billion people’s longing for a better life; because of a consistent open consensus; and because of a group of entrepreneurs who aspire to success.

The next decade or two will be the best era for Chinese entrepreneurs.

Because there will be a relatively stable population base in the next 20 years. Population is the source of innovation and the cornerstone of a huge market. After 20 years, China’s population will begin to decline slowly, and entrepreneurial opportunities will gradually shrink as the population decreases.

The rise, development or decline of many industries in China comes from the huge changes in the production methods and lifestyles of hundreds of millions of people. The root cause lies in the structural changes of China’s population-oligoproliferation, aging, urbanization.

This is self-evident: the declining child population and aging means that the market around children is getting narrower and narrower, and the market around middle-aged and older user groups is getting wider.

Childhood, agingIt also means that the labor structure of the three major industries of agriculture, industry, and service will change, and labor will escape from agriculture and industry and flood into the service industry. In the future, the proportion of labor in the three major industries will reach 10%, 20% and 70%, respectively.

The reduction of labor force will force agriculture, industry to scale, automation and intelligent development, releasing more opportunities for deepening industrial reform. And the labor force that floods into the service industry will be absorbed by the expanding cities and towns to meet the living needs of the urban population and fill the labor gap in those emerging industries.

China’s urbanization level has just exceeded 60%, and there is at least 15% -20% room for improvement. This means that at least 100 million to 200 million people will get rid of the old small peasant economy’s self-sufficient production methods and lifestyles and shift to the urban population’s production methods and consumption patterns. This is the largest migration in China and it is a continuous and permanent change.

Current national policies encourage the development of millions of cities. At present, China has more than 2,000 county-level administrative units, with an average population of 500,000 per county. It is the most important network node in China’s sinking market. Some county counties with large populations may further evolve into super county counties with a population of over 500,000.

Many people don’t have a clear idea of ​​the Chinese urban population. There are only 10 cities with a population of more than 2 million in Europe, and Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich (corresponding to China’s Beishangguang) in Germany. The three cities have a population of less than 7 million, which is slightly more than half of Chengdu’s population.

In the case of oversaturated markets in the first and second-tier cities, there are still many opportunities for material and spiritual consumption around the county seat in the future. Even if the “sinking market” becomes a cliché in 2019, we don’t think it can be stressed enough in 2020.

The structural changes in China’s population will inevitably have a profound impact on all aspects of China’s society and economy. Next, we will dismantle which industries will benefit one by one, and have the opportunity to create tens of billions of dollars, or even hundreds of billions of companies:

Li Zhigang: After 2020, new giants will be born in these areas

The existing manpower scheduling system is obviously out of date. Deep changes are taking place in labor-intensive industries, and the epidemic has accelerated the spread and deepening of change. Labor costs have become a pain that cannot be endured by catering companies who are behind closed doors, which will inevitably force companies to seek solutions.

On the other hand, people ’s social attributes also have obvious intergenerational differentiation: Compared with the collective honour and patience of the post-60s and post-70s, the post-95s and post-00s who enter the labor market are more individual and free. . This is inevitable when the material life is relatively abundantThe change.

Chinese society needs a more flexible, efficient, and liberating human nature. Start-up companies involved in the creation and integration of this system have the opportunity to become tens of billions of dollars or even hundreds of billions of dollars.

One development direction of this system is that robots will gradually replace manpower. Another development direction is our focus, that is, socialized supply will become the mainstream source of labor. If the individual labor force is regarded as the smallest unit of supply, he can, like a supplier, supply his time to different enterprises by time.

On the surface, socialized supply is similar to odd jobs. But the essential difference between it and odd jobs is:

  • It will be the mainstream method of labor source in some industries, and both demand and supply will be stable for a long time;

  • Efficient matching between supply and demand must be made through technical means.

    We believe that from a sufficiently long time dimension, socialized supply will extend to most industries. However, in the next three to five years, the transformation of this manpower scheduling system will mainly occur in labor-intensive industries such as catering and retail. Its core point is eight words:

    Flexible employment and precise matching.

    Traditional labor dispatch is to send hundreds or thousands of people into the enterprise in batches; this traditional company will be replaced by a company that has the technical ability to disassemble each job applicant’s label in detail, and then Demands are precisely matched.

    In this transformation, the core business of a company that can cut into the big cake must be transactions, that is, matching enterprises (demand) with blue-collar individuals (supply). This is the most core value. Those companies that only provide services such as social security and wages are limited in value.

    In May 2019, we launched the feature “a” = “a: // > New Blue Collars “, the main content is about the production methods and lifestyles of the new blue collars, especially in the field of flexible employment. After the launch of this topic, several CEOs in this field gave us feedback, and recently they have attracted the attention of many investors.

    What is a new blue collar?First, the age structure of blue-collar workers has changed, and post-90s and post-95s are gradually becoming the main source of labor in certain industries. Second, the blue-collar workers’ industrial structure has changed and migrated from manufacturing to service industries.

    We can paint a portrait of the new blue-collar: graduated from junior high school or technical school, has strong self-esteem, desires to be respected, is emotionally impulsive, highly mobile, and frequently changes jobs. However, their disposable income is usually higher than that of white-collar workers. They have no pressure to rent or pay off their mortgages, and they are eager to seek recognition in shopping or the virtual world.

    China has 400 million blue-collar workers. Assuming an average annual income of 50,000 yuan, this will be a 20 trillion yuan market. Around this group, many tens of billions or even 100 billion US dollars of companies can be born.

    In addition to the blue-collar recruitment based on the “socialized supply” mentioned above, we believe that vocational training around blue-collars is also a blue ocean. Only half of the school-aged population can enter high school each year, and only half of them can continue to enter the undergraduate school, while the remaining three-quarters will enter society with college, secondary or even junior high school education, forming a huge blue-collar group.

    With the changes in China’s industrial structure, the development of agriculture and industry towards automation and intelligence requires practitioners to learn new professional knowledge and skills; the reemployment of a large number of blue-collar workers who have flowed into the service industry also depends on reeducation .

    Helping blue-collars improve their skills and income, and provide a channel for promotion for the bottom-level blue-collars. This has both social and economic value.

    In addition, the material consumption of blue-collar workers is also an area worthy of attention. In the 3C, tide brand, and automotive markets, blue-collar workers are the mainstream consumer group.

    Li Zhigang: New giants will be born in these areas after 2020

    At the beginning of this article, we have mentioned that the outbreak will accelerate the development of China’s big health industry.

    It is no exaggeration to say that this will be the largest industry in the universe. We put health-related industries such as medical care, retirement, fitness, etc. here.

    The average life expectancy in China has increased from 35 to 77 in the past 70 years, which has led to a rapid expansion of the elderly population. In the next ten to twenty years, the health needs of Chinese people will burst out.

    Different from the post-40s and post-50s concept of saving money and saving money, post-60s have accumulated a lot of wealth, have seen the world, and have a desire to consume. When they started to retire, the pension industry broke out.

    Loneliness and loneliness are the core pain points of older people. So they dance square dances and go out to travel together. Each of them has a huge market for clothing, food, shelter, and spiritual life, at least fifteen segments.Ten billion dollar companies will emerge in the field.

    Seniority and medical care are inseparable. The painful lessons of the epidemic have exposed the shortcomings of China’s medical system: basic-level medical institutions have weak facilities and backward skills. In the future, improving the level of diagnosis and treatment and service levels of primary medical institutions will inevitably be the focus of national policy promotion. However, it is obviously unrealistic to rely on government forces to solve this problem, and it is bound to rely on social forces to solve it.

    The top doctors of the highest quality are all concentrated in the top three hospitals in big cities. It is impossible for each of the 940,000 grassroots medical institutions to have a well-known doctor. Therefore, a universal, general-purpose medical diagnosis system is needed. Instead of “famous doctors” to help physicians make more accurate diagnosis.

    Of course, the machine cannot completely replace the doctor. Seeing a doctor is essentially a service. The key word is “trust.” Only a doctor with ability can build trust. Millions of clinics require nearly 3 million doctors, and the opportunities for doctor training are huge. With a high-quality doctor supply, it is possible to establish a trust system for primary care.

    Now the country is promoting the separation of medicines, and 3.5 million medical representatives are facing unemployment. Previously, the interest chain of medicines was too long, including ex-factory price, total cost, winning bid price, hospital-side retail price, and pharmacy retail price. In addition to self-developed domestic medicines to replace high-priced imported medicines, opportunities for reform of pharmaceutical distribution channels will also be born.

    For example, chain pharmacies, where patients used to prescribe medicines in the hospital, will gradually be transferred to pharmacies in the future, and licensed pharmacists (or pharmacy technicians) in retail pharmacies will become standard in pharmacies. In the future, pharmacist training seminars, like doctor training, will become a big opportunity in vocational training.

    Similar to high-priced medicine, there are high-priced medical equipment and consumables. This is a B2B business. In the future, more cost-effective domestic equipment will be adopted. With the reform of medicines, medical devices and consumables, there are also opportunities for integration and sinking of the supply chain.

    Insurance is currently a 4 trillion market and is growing very fast. Chinese people live longer, and the incidence of various chronic diseases has greatly increased. In the past, people were most afraid that money would not be spent when they died. Now they are afraid that money has not been spent. Without the full coverage of social security, commercial medical insurance has become a necessary choice.

    Li Zhigang: After 2020, new giants will be born in these areas

    Illness comes from the mouth. Closely related to health is eating.

    The epidemic is a severe blow to the current catering industry. Now it is thicker than anyone ’s family and can withstand this war of attrition.

    However, for entrepreneurshipFor the person, this is also an opportunity for the industry to reshuffle.

    Low-end restaurants with poor sanitation conditions will be eliminated quickly. The closure of such restaurants will free up physical space, with closure and then integration. The chain and branding of the catering industry is an inevitable trend in the future.

    In 2018, the scale of China’s catering service market revenue reached 4.3 trillion yuan. If it grows at a compound growth rate of about 10% in the next five years, this number will reach 8 trillion yuan by 2025.

    Five years from now, if calculated at a 30% chain rate, it will be a 2.4 trillion chain restaurant market. Theoretically, there can be 100 100 billion-level companies, but it is impossible to fill them all, so there will be at least about 30 100 billion-level catering chain companies in the next 5-10 years.

    In the future, labor costs will rise and rents will rise. In order to help restaurants solve cost pain points, there will be catering supply chain companies that mainly produce pre-made ingredients. After the customer gets the ingredients, a small amount of manual processing is sufficient, and even the machine may do it later. In the post-cooker, the action of the machine to process the standard products is higher than the human standard. Large-scale catering must be more efficient and stable.

    Easy cooking and eating, even To C opportunities will be born in the catering supply chain.

    But not all startups in this market can eat it. The head catering businesses are relatively strong, and they have high requirements on the quality of ingredients and services. Most large catering companies choose to build their own supply chains. And tail businesses such as the street wife shop and wife shop are too sensitive to the price, resulting in poor stickiness. Therefore, for start-up companies, core customers should focus on waist merchants and small chain brands, so that there will be stable development and growth space.

    Simple catering marketing runs business on behalf of limited space. Taobao has a generation operation company called Baozun, with a market value of 2 billion U.S. dollars. The catering industry today is definitely smaller than the market size of e-commerce. In contrast, this industry may be difficult to even create a billion dollar business.

    Li Zhigang: New giants will be born in these areas after 2020

    2018 is a new starting point for agriculture. Local land was gradually opened and transferred. The three rights are separated, the ownership is state, the contracting rights are owned by farmers and collectives, and the management rights are released. Farmers and collectives can package the contracting rights and sell them to large operators. The large-scale transfer of land to planting and breeding has cleared the way.

    The agricultural working population will be further reduced. In the future, only about 10% of the population will continue to engage in agricultural production and operations, and bear the agricultural product demand of 1.4 billion people. To ensure sustainable, stable and efficient agricultural productsThe demand for production supply, centralized and automated agriculture is becoming increasingly apparent.

    The agglomeration effect of the consumer Internet forces the reform of upstream supply chains. The large-scale production of agriculture comes from the scale of the consumer retail end. For example, thousands of stores in Baiguoyuan gather the needs of tens of millions of users, and more than a billion consumers have demanded 70 points of agricultural products. Demand.

    The scale of consumer demand has put more demands on the quality and standardization of agricultural products. Order-based agricultural production ushers in an opportunity. When a startup company gathers producers to control local acres of land, it has enough say to require upstream producers to match the output and quality control with the consumer.

    Policies, population structure and consumer demand, the three thrusts work together to force agricultural production to scale, standardize and intelligently change, which brings opportunities for the branding of agricultural products.

    Branding of agricultural products is a long-term process, and its formation requires two necessary conditions:

    The first is the soundness of agricultural product patent technology and trademark protection related laws, which provide barriers for agricultural product brands and support for the research and development of high-quality agricultural products; the second is the large-scale production and management of farmland to ensure the safety of agricultural products and food. Quality stability.

    In the future, there will definitely be agricultural product brands with traceable sources and tiered pricing. At least thousands or even tens of thousands of agricultural product brands will be born in this field. Processing, non-staple food, consumption, health, etc., will be further derived from the brand. All are the deep roads of agricultural product brands.

    This is an industry larger than the catering trillion-level market. In the future, there will be 30 companies worth 10 billion to 100 billion US dollars and 100 companies worth 10 billion yuan. Among the various sectors of this giant industry, hundreds of billions of US dollars in agriculture-related companies will appear on the track of intelligent agriculture, agricultural product brands and sinking market consumption.

    Li Zhigang: After 2020, new giants will be born in these areas

    “Hu Ping’s job is to put the data cable into the box, complete an action within 5 seconds, repeat 5000 times a day, do a total of 25,000 seconds, about 7 hours. Workers can rest every two hours of work 10 minutes.

    It’s all precisely calculated. In a workshop as large as a football stadium, twelve production lines move at a rigid speed, and workers sitting next to the assembly line repeat the monotonous movements of picking, putting down, picking up, and dropping down day by day. . “

    The labor force has been shrinking year by year, making blue-collar workers more and more popular. peopleThe ebb of lipstick, the rise in labor prices, and changes in the working concepts of the younger generation are forcing companies to shift to more economical and efficient ways.

    Manufacturing factories must have the ability to respond quickly to product upgrades, and also consider reducing product batches due to shortened life cycles. With it came cost increases and price pressures.

    The Industrial Internet can integrate existing automation technologies with information technologies such as the Internet and the Internet of Things to solve the problem of flexible production. The traditional manufacturing industry is transformed from large-scale production of a single type of product to rapid customization of multiple types of products, which can not only meet individual needs, but also obtain the cost advantage of large-scale production.

    In the future, the manufacturing industry will realize intelligent management of internal processes and intelligent processing of external orders.

    All industries related to SKUs must use the Industrial Internet to effectively connect the consumer and supply sides, respond sensitively and accurately to the changes in the needs of C-end users, and solve inventory problems.

    The trend of forcing factory production from the consumer side has been gradually verified in the apparel industry, and it will expand to more industries in the future. Regardless of the terminal To B or To C, as long as the market is large enough, and the traffic side and the supply side are fragmented, every segment of the market has the opportunity to create vertical industrial Internet platform companies, from tens of billions to trillions Opportunities for the dollar are almost there.

    For entrepreneurs in the field of Industrial Internet, a hard power competition has just begun.

    Li Zhigang: After 2020, new giants will be born in these areas

    According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2018, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the country exceeded 38 trillion yuan, and the online retail sales of the country were 9 trillion yuan. There is no doubt that the retail industry centered on buying and selling goods will still be a huge opportunity in the future.

    We divide online and offline. Online is mainly the major e-commerce platforms. I think that online e-commerce will be out if it does not reach 50 billion scale. This is a winner-takes-all area. Goods or purely traffic can not replace the current e-commerce giant. The future trend of e-commerce must be a combination of online and offline, combining e-commerce + agricultural products + cultural products in a package, constantly increasing services, increasing weight, and deepening barriers. In short, this is a big capital game.

    Offline, large and medium-sized supermarkets, convenience stores, and unmanned retail will occupy the mainstream.

    In the future, large and medium-sized supermarkets will occupy 20% of the entire retail industry, with a wide range of categories, which can basically solve the daily procurement needs in one stop.begging. But this field is not suitable for startups. First, the investment is huge. The investment of a large supermarket of 5,000 square meters is 200 million yuan. Second, the management is complicated. A store needs one main store manager and four deputy store managers, who are responsible for offline store management, procurement, logistics, and online operations. The store manager needs anything, which is difficult to obtain through recruitment. Requires long-term internal cultivation.

    Unmanned retail will account for about 10% in the next 5-10 years. It is waiting for an opportunity and the opportunity for rising labor costs. A simple analysis of the income composition of a convenience store: Basically, a 60-80 square meter store has a daily turnover of 6000 yuan to 8,000 yuan, a net profit of 3-5 points, and a monthly net profit of 10,000 to 20,000 yuan. Now they can still make money Because labor is cheap. But five years later, when labor costs rose to 7,000-8,000 yuan, the business of traditional convenience stores was difficult to do. When all three conditions are met when technology is mature, hardware costs are down, and convenience store labor costs are up, unmanned retail will usher in an opportunity to explode.

    But unmanned retail only accounts for 10%. Why? First of all, people are still emotional animals. Convenience stores can provide face-to-face services. Secondly, there are only 300 SKUs in unmanned retail, and 3,000 convenience stores. So unmanned retail is a supplement to the retail industry, not the mainstream.

    Convenience stores, I think they will occupy about 60%. At present, convenience store owners have three major models, self-employed, franchise, self-operated + franchise. If it is purely self-employed, it controls the supply chain and has a standardized process system. The weaknesses are slow expansion, occupation of funds, and difficulty in training store managers. With pure joining, the expansion speed is fast, but the control of quality control and supply chain is weak. The future mainstream model is self-employed + franchise, the first 50 are self-operated, and the last 1000 are franchised. This is the main model of future convenience stores. Convenience stores of the new format will definitely replace the traditional model. We will continue to study and focus on specific trends, which will not be discussed in detail here.

    Finally, share my thoughts on the freshness of the community. Four years ago, I predicted that 99% of fresh produce e-commerce businesses would die for two reasons. First, the upstream agricultural products could not be scaled up and the land was scattered. Second, the cost of downstream cold chain logistics remains high, coupled with losses, etc. This is why I judged that 99% of fresh food e-commerce companies must die four years ago.

    Community group buying which has been very hot in the past two years has been my blast. I have three problems: the first group leader has no loyalty and runs with anyone who has a high profit; the second one does not really master the supply chain. Fresh is ultimately in the supply chain; the third user is with the head, and the startup has no control. In the future, only individual head companies will survive in community group buying, and the model will change.

    Freshness is still the most essential. It must be the place with the least number of transfers and the closer to the people, the greater the value. Therefore, the freshness supply chain must be localized. In the future, the probability of regional hegemony in this industry will be greater than that of national giants. .

    The obvious impact of this outbreak is that the offline low-end, messy retail business, Especially the fresh retail business will accelerate death; and the development of community fresh and unmanned retail has been promoted.

    However, if the unit economic model does not hold, the more you sell, the more you lose, the faster you die. Cost, efficiency, these four words are the eternal truth of retail.

    Li Zhigang: New giants will be born in these areas after 2020

    The tourism industry is short-term pessimistic and long-term bullish.

    Liang Jianzhang, Ctrip’s co-founder and chairman of the executive board, said that in the next 20 years, there will be a company that surpasses Alibaba in tourism. I agree with this. Tourism belongs to spiritual consumption. In the future, when the material is more abundant, people will definitely pursue a higher level of the spiritual world. Tourism is one of the ways to enrich the spiritual world.

    How can tourism companies become tens or billions? First of all, there is no chance to do standard products. If you want to cut into, you must create non-standard products or provide non-standard services. Second, you must do it. This emphasis does not refer to assets, but services. , Using technology to manage, including employee behavior, routes, attractions, etc. Finally, the tourism industry is born with its own global genes, and the business of startup companies also needs to meet the needs of global inbound and outbound tourism.

    In addition, there will be opportunities in the tourism sector to target segments and markets. For example, elderly and parent-child, the proportion of parent-child travel will decline, and the proportion of elderly tourism will rise, because the number of new Chinese population has fallen sharply, which means that the demand for mother-to-child and parent-child related industries will shrink. Parent-child travel and entrepreneurship also need to consider the time and attention of children. Nowadays, the phenomenon of cross-border robbery is increasing, and it will be very ugly to die parent-child tourism without understanding education.

    Another segment is inbound tourism. Now China has a deficit in outbound tourism and inbound tourism every year. How to do inbound tourism business with foreigners in the future can also be considered.

    In the area of ​​accommodation, the transformation of individual hotels below the county seat is also a huge opportunity, similar to the strong franchise model, with the county seat as the center, from the prefecture-level city to the township. But we must do a strong franchise model, for example, the entire hotel’s operation, management, supply chain, procurement, decoration, design, etc. are led by startup companies.

    The premise of the strong franchise model is to make money on the B side. The traffic is on the one hand. At present, startups are hoping to find a big platform for diversion, but they should also pay attention to finding localized traffic. More than 60% of the county-level economy hotels are locals, and the rest are travellers, so it is important to localize marketing and gain word of mouth. On the other hand, sinking the market means a large management radius, and startups needHelp the B-side to train and manage the staff. The ideology, action and professionalism must keep pace with the headquarters. At the same time, through technical means, the actions that can be standardized can be managed by the system, and the actions that cannot be standardized, such as supply chain, decoration and other personalized things, must be served by people. Both the system and the artificial two-pronged approach, this is an important trend of the strong hotel franchise model in the future.

    Li Zhigang: After 2020, new giants will be born in these areas

    The epidemic has stimulated the short-term prosperity of online education and has accelerated the proportion of online education. However, in the long run, education will be a combination of online and offline, a combination of technology and teachers.

    Many education companies are blindly expanding when the unit economic model is at a loss, and it is irrational to think that they can achieve profit after expanding the scale. If the company does not make money on a small scale, it will be difficult to make money on a large scale. In the final analysis, this is the business of the unit economic model.

    We believe that the high cost of teachers can be solved by technology. For example, “machine” teachers can be introduced in some standardized mathematics, English and other subjects. However, education is always a cause of educating people. In some spiritual areas, teachers should still educate. Through the communication between teachers and students, solve students’ problems on the ideological level.

    With the changes in population structure, we believe that compared to the current winter of K12 education companies collectively, vocational education is still a blue ocean. This has been discussed in the previous article and will not be repeated here.

    When socialized supply becomes mainstream, more and more people will leave the fixed company organization and exist in the form of flexible employment and freelance. The spiritual consumer industry requires more individualized and diversified skills and creativity. Essentially, it is quality education. Talent training must conform to the social trend in the next one or two decades, so I value quality education, but this does not necessarily happen in the short term.

    In the future, whether it is vocational education or quality education and entrepreneurship, regardless of the specific model, the essence of education is still the quality of teaching. This is the core of the core.

    Li Zhigang: After 2020, new giants will be born in these areas

    In 2016, in the first month of the establishment of the new economy, we released the first trend forecast: “cvc>cvc>cqc.com “http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NzAxODY3OQ==&mid=401387770&idx=1&sn=e4e99b6ea1e54609c47af463ddd55676&chksm=34f87da2038wea2016#2c2c2c#2 “. Most of these predictions have been validated or are being validated. For example, consumer upgrades, social e-commerce, and billion-dollar companies in education were born in K12 and English.

    Four years later, we release trend forecasts again. This trend forecast is not a new start to the forecast made four years ago, and the view has a clear vein of development. Our confidence comes from the first-line research data of 3,000 companies in the past four years; from the principle we have always adhered to: deep-rooted and independent thinking; from our core competitiveness accumulated over the years: precision based on CEO big data Judge.

    A lot of investors and entrepreneurs have asked us, why not release it once a year? We also answer here, returning to the nature of business, it is easy to see which are short-term restlessness and which are long-term trends. How can there be so many great changes in the world on a time scale of one year?

    Four years ago we said:

    Veteran VCs who have grown up with the Chinese Internet are accustomed to finding an American benchmark for Chinese startups. Any large industrial country will go through a period of cottage, and it will be the same in the Internet world. However, the Chinese Internet is living its own unique look.

    Li Zhigang, public number: 100 people in the new economy