title figure from the IC photo, Author: Jason Lee
Dear friends, good evening everyone, I am very happy to be here to share my investment experience. Let me introduce myself briefly:
I was with my peers before 2017. The earliest entrepreneurial project I did was a car intelligent hardware project, which was later acquired by industry leaders.
Joined Didi in 15 years, first responsible for an internal incubation project in the CTO business line, Didi minibus, and then trans to the international team responsible for product growth throughout the Australian region. It can also be regarded as a tough battle and experienced the tide of the times.
I have always been interested in investing in the secondary market. In 15 years, I opened Hong Kong and US stock accounts. I bought 5 stocks in the next 3 years. I was lucky that the underlying stocks rose sharply. Calculated, the principal has been turned over 8 times in 3 years.
In 17 years, he started to invest in digital currencies. In 18 years, he founded An Coin Capital, focusing on equity investment in blockchain. We have a layout in the industry vertical media, wallets, mining machines, and exchanges. More than 10 times return for multiple projects.
Ok, we are all half colleagues today. I will talk a little bit and probably talk about three points:
1. Why invest?
2. As internet people, participate in the secondary market investment, where is our competitive advantage?
3. Finally, talk about my personal investment practice.
Why invest?
I remember when Yu Jun joined Didi in 16 years, we had a meal together. At that time, I asked him, Teacher Yu, you have such deep insights into the development of Internet business and enterprises. Have you ever thought about investing and using your own vision and experience to discover good projects?
Ms. Yu said that he was not interested, and it was cool to see others doing enough business.
I think this view can represent the idea of a class of people. I really admire the entrepreneurial spirit of carrying a gun on the battlefield. But my personal character is more curious, entrepreneurship and investment are enjoyable. In contrast, investment has attracted me a few points:
One is to liberate time , so that I no longer need to repeat transactional work, focus on thinking about the nature of things, and make more money with judgment than action;
The second is to increase fault tolerance. It is difficult to work concurrently, whether it is working or starting a business, but investment can give me more betting opportunities;
The third is to improve liquidity. Douyin is a great team, but if I unfortunately go to a sand sculpture company sand sculpture team, it is difficult to get rid of it immediately, but I can buy bad stocks. Sell immediately and don’t keep paying for others’ mistakes.
Fourth is a rich experience. Every day you can learn new knowledge in new fields, which is exciting. Of course, the breadth is coming up, the depth will be broken, and the specific balance is also important.
Okay, the above is spiritual. Let me talk about the material level.
Investment is the best way to help us achieve relative financial freedom at an early date.
There is a very classic cognitive error about financial freedom. Suppose I spend 50w a year and I have 1000w deposits for financial management. The 5% interest per year is just enough for me to eat and drink.
Everyone knows that this is wrong. Because there is inflation, everything will become more and more expensive, so you can only be free for a while.
But do you know what the real inflation is?
Look at the data of an M2:
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20 years ago, the money supply was 1.3w billion, and now it is 200w, a 15-fold increase. About 15% a year.
In the previous period, the data was more exaggerated. A statistics was done before the Reservoir Forum. It was quite a long time from the 90s to the 10s.26% more annual issuance.
A 7-point gdp is shaved off, and a nominal inflation of 2-3 points is about 17% more each year. This 17% is digested by real estate. In the same period, house prices in first-tier cities rose by about 17% + each year, doubling every 4 years and 16 times in 16 years.
This is our economic situation over the past 20 years.
Returning to the question just now, suppose I have 1000w in my hands, 100w in annual salary, 50w in interest, and an annual increase of 15% in assets, which is just the same as the speed of printing money.
Then I do n’t eat, drink or wave, I have a high salary, I carry the pressure, and the result is just barely keeping up with the times, and society will not be left behind.
Besides, I have to eat and drink Lazarus. You have to spend money.
Here is a formula: In a broad sense, the upper limit of the personal wealth that the middle class can accumulate is about 10 times its annual income. Going up, it is difficult for growth to outperform banknote printing.
When you can accumulate savings of 10 times your income, you often work for 20 years, and the space for career advancement is relatively limited. This may be called middle-class anxiety.
What should I do?
Buying a house on leverage is a good idea. Predecessors have already practiced it, but not for everyone.
It is difficult to afford millions of expenses at a time (Moreover, it is difficult to be a second set as an investment);
The second limit purchase policy is to squeeze space;
Third, the liquidity is too poor, and I accidentally pitted myself into it (The target was not selected, the timing was not set, and the money was urgently used in the middle …) .
Investment in the secondary market has become a good solution.
With liquidity, you can enjoy the water injection benefits of printing money, and the threshold is low enough, even 1,000 yuan can start to practice.
Of course, everything is one-sided and two-sided. The securities market gives such a good opportunity to make money, and you have to bear the corresponding risks and costs accordingly.We will say later.
Let me show you two more pictures:
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Figure 1 shows the best-case and worst-case returns of randomly selected S & P 500 stocks and holding stocks / bonds / treasury bonds in different years. Compared.
For one year of support, stock risks are great, and they may become rich or lose money.
But as the year gets longer, the expected return on holding stocks (EV) shows a clear advantage. By holding for 30 years, it has been a steady profit without losing money.
Figure 2 shows the return of various types of assets in the 200-year cycle. The stock is still far ahead, and we can see the huge energy of compound interest.
This is why everyone is encouraged to invest in the secondary market, and it is to buy stocks and not buy fund bonds and gold. It takes a long enough time to hedge the risk of volatility and enjoy the double dividends of national growth and corporate growth.
What are our advantages as internet people
First, the advantages of personal investment over institutional investment, and then the advantages of Internet people over other industries.
Personal investment vs institutional investment , this topic is very interesting.
A lot of times we think, if I want to invest, should I go to a professional fund company as a fund manager, rely on a whole team, have the most comprehensive information, have the best analysts, and have plenty of time Research the market.
This is one-sided and two-sided. Compared to institutions, we also have our own comparative advantages as individual investors.
When you invest in a large institution, there will be many “investor handcuffs”.
For example, some can only be long, not short, and some cannot be short-term large capital short positions, and there are restrictions on the proportion of positions held by each stock, which may dilute your earnings.
Another example is the foundation’s three-year performance, one-year performance, and even quarterly monthly performance. Let us ignore the long-term performance that we should pay attention to and measure long-term opportunities.
For another example, because of the investment of LP, it is often pursued not to make mistakes, rather than to maximize long-term EV.
Let me talk a little different today. In addition to these, group decision-making may also lead to group stupidity.
Thinking hard takes time, and your pauses during a group discussion are rude.
Most people follow suit, and directly opposing others’ opinions is hurtful.
Encouraging everyone to make a different voice is a recognized corporate culture. However, the surgery industry has a specialization. It is always a small number of people who deeply observe and deepen a particular field, and the weight of expression is often averaged.
Therefore, you can listen to the majority of people and discuss with the minority, but you must make your own decisions.
The advantages that the Internet industry gives us.
A common misconception is that Internet companies’ valuation bubbles are too high. This is why Buffett has been reluctant to hold technology stocks (IBM, AT & T) , he likes cash flow, hard money for thousands of years business.
This discipline of insisting on his ability circle has allowed Buffett to avoid the plunge of U.S. technology stocks at the beginning of this century and earned him a high reputation.
However, the industry has changed a lot in the past 20 years. According to statistics for 16 years, Apple, Google, Amazon, FB, and Microsoft accounted for 55% of the global market capitalization of the top 10 companies, and their profits accounted for 56% of the top 10 total profits. This is obviously no longer a bubble.
The high-tech bubble and subsequent depression have made fund managers discover that technical barriers are not long-term barriers. Then they stopped thinking.
But the truth is that the Internet ’s change in human behavior has only come a little late.
The gradual evolutionary route of traditional industries has left ample time windows for feedback for large systems, while the information revolution brought by technological transitions has caused large funds relying on customary paths to fail to respond.
The old process of “market research-financial analysis-investment research report-discussion and decision-making” is no longer the best way of thinking in today’s flatter information and more diversified communication channels.
I was fortunate to consult with an elder of CICC on the financial market. This person personally attacked the earliest seniors of China’s IT companies listed on the market. When talking about the capital market, there was a steady stream of dry goods, but when asked The answer to artificial intelligence and Nvidia was evasive.
Sometimes I do n’t want to understand, but I am old.
Therefore, as a first-line Internet person, we have several advantages over other players in investing in this game:
One is the table advantage.
The industry itself still has high growth and can receive dividends, which is equivalent to being on a table where the dealer keeps replenishing you with chips, which has an advantage over other tables’ stock chip games.
If we are not in the Internet, but in the construction, water conservancy and hotel management industries, it is really difficult to find high growth targets in our own ability circle in the secondary market.
The second is information advantage.
We are at the forefront of the industry, in the eyes of the storm. What we see, think and do every day is directly and indirectly writing the direction of the industry. The people around us are often the major players. The information network intertwined by the front-line employees of the factory can help us to build a great information advantage over institutions and non-industries.
For organizations, what they can rely onInformation, such as financial reports and annual reports, no matter how detailed the data is, it is all lagging information. We do get real-time information or even advance information.
The third is cognitive advantage.
Even if I know everything about Didi and break it up and tell you it, your understanding of Didi’s business will probably not reach my level. You also commercialized Douyin to me I couldn’t get started immediately after the second review.
Whether text or language or icon, the information that can be transmitted is always limited, and each transmission means the attenuation of effective intake of information. Everything we experience every day shapes our insights into the industry. Even if I tell the next person, even if he listens to it, he will certainly have a degree of conviction, which will be transmitted to decision-making. , Forming the next step of loss, and finally led to our investment practice is very different.
After all, there are too few people who can learn from the experience of others, and most people can only learn from their own experiences. Therefore, the cognitive advantage constructed by yourself is the most irreplaceable.
3 years 8 times, my personal investment practice
I set an investment principle for myself when I entered the market in 2015:
Spend 90% of your time finding good companies in your industry. These companies have huge market potential, sustainable construction barriers, and excellent management teams.
It takes 10% of the time to make sure that the company’s stock price is within a reasonable range and that there is no excessive premium.
Ignore market sentiment and short-term fluctuations, and buy in heavy positions within an acceptable range.
Sell when a business encounters a bottleneck or the Black Swan incident, no matter how much it rises at that time, just look at the trend and don’t ask for profit or loss.
If the business keeps booming? Then don’t sell it, a stock that can take 50 years is really awesome.
Based on the above principles, in the TMT you are familiar withSelect stocks in the field, each one will ask themselves the following questions:
Do I have a clear understanding of the core competitiveness of this company? Is there an objective expectation for the growth of its circuit?
How do I communicate with frontline employees of this company? Are they optimistic about the company’s prospects? How much do they think they can get their year-end awards? How is his boss’ mindset?
Am I confident that this company is worth holding for a considerable period of time? When the external environment changes, can I detect the critical point and adjust my position in time?
If you do not dare to hold a stock for 5 years, do not hold it for a day.
With these issues to study and make decisions, I bought five stocks: Tencent, Nvidia, Good Future, Sunac, Tesla.
Tencent first.
Everyone is familiar with this. The moat is too deep. At the core of the two social and game tracks, there is the hard power of continuous micro-innovation and self-iteration. In addition, there are two handsome talents, Zhang Xiaolong and Yao Xiaoguang. It’s the man I’m willing to follow all in. (dog’s head) , and it’s hard to overstate China’s most stable technology company.
There is also a hot topic before Tencent, which is the issue of plagiarism. I remember that in the 3Q war, my computer was abducted by Tencent’s family. QQ browser, QQ video, QQ antivirus, SOSO search, SOSO map … It was really annoying. However, the track of these copy jobs did not come out in the end, indicating that the light copy was useless, the experience was not good, and no one paid for the traffic.
But social and game work is really hard work. Everyone is interested in turning over the early history of Tencent. QQ was also scratched by msn that year. Later, it was based on a little bit of superimposed product innovation to accumulate competitive advantages. The game track is also the same. CF was launched in 2008, 10 years of fire, more than 20 versions of iteration in the middle, characters, firearms, and gameplay are constantly upgraded. LOL and DOTA2, this will not be said. As a turret player, I am in tears …
Anyway: It’s not because Tencent’s social networking and games have become bigger. Others can’t do it, it’s only awesome. It’s because Tencent’s social and games make awesome. Others can’t do it, and it becomes bigger.
Novice investors often make a mistake, that is, a stock that rises and then sells it. In fact, most of the time, it should be reversed. A more rise indicates that the asset is good, and it should continue to be held. A more fall indicates that the asset is not good, and the loss should be stopped in a timely manner.
A question for everyone. Since the rise of the mobile Internet in 2009, a large number of technology companies have emerged.
If you go back to the year and let you choose a stock all in, what would you buy?
I think many people’s answer should be Apple or Google.
It’s all a good choice, but if I say, there is better. I will buy ARM.
The battle for the mobile Internet, the bottom layer is the chip, the middle layer is the operating system, and the upper layer is the application.
The application layer is full of flowers, and it is difficult to strike early;
The iOS of the system layer is opposite to the Android duo. If you do n’t know who wins, you can buy them all.
The chip layer is nothing more than Qualcomm and MediaTek. Both of these have to use ARM’s core technology to produce chips.
Do you know the market share of ARM-based chips?
More than 90%.
If you buy ARM in 2009 and hold it for 17 years, you will have more than 20 times the return.
Taking history as a mirror can tell us what we can do. We know that the future is the era of artificial intelligence. Then my goal is very simple, to find ARM in the era of artificial intelligence.
There are three core elements of artificial intelligence: data, algorithms, and calculations. At this stage, the amount of data is sufficient, and both the algorithm and the algorithm can play a good support. The breakthrough in the amount of calculation is the main reason for AI to be heated. Behind the calculation is the GPU. The company that has been working in the GPU field for a long time and has established technical barriers is NVIDIA.
At the beginning of 17 years, many people began to look down, mainly based on two points:
1. The time of AI outbreak will not be too early, and the corresponding market growth will not be too fast;
2. GPU is not a chip specially designed for AI. The ultimate chip winner in the future will not be the current form. Both Intel and Google are developing chip technology designed for AI.
But it takes time to accumulate new technologies. In the next few years, it will be difficult for mature next-generation chips to be born, and the market will not wait for technological breakthroughs before taking action, especially when the existing GPU computing capacity is sufficient to take effect in the commercialization field. when.
Good future and Sunac. These two are not Internet, but education and real estate are relatively easy to understand industries.
The buying decision for the good future is relatively simple. I have taught part-time in New Oriental for a while. I also know a lot of friends who are engaged in education. Everyone is optimistic about this company. At that time, a friend and I told me a scene. At 6 am, a large number of parents of students went to the store to line up, just to grab a good future entrance examination qualification. Just an entry qualification.
This is no longer a problem of oversupply, and it is almost catching up with “hunger marketing”.
Behind the reflection is another kind of middle class anxiety: after this 80’s hard work and hard experience, the competition can finally gain a foothold in the big cities. We are not rich and powerful, and the only thing we can rely on is real learning. Education has played a vital role in completing the class transition, so we hope that the next generation can also win on the starting line.
Study abroad to find New Oriental, domestic college entrance examination to find a good future. As long as this expectation persists, there will still be a good future.
Of course, this is just a qualitative logic. My understanding of the education industry is far worse than the Internet, so this stock only takes a small position.
Sunac also has similar ideas.
First of all, we are optimistic about the logic of Chinese property stocks.
With the irreversible urbanization rate and improving demand, leading real estate companies (Mastering the quality land resources of the inflow of population) It will look more towards the sustainable industry rather than the cyclical industry.
The market fluctuations and misjudgments and discounts on valuations are judged according to cyclical industries.
This misjudgment will be corrected by the market in the future, and the corresponding rise in valuation will drive the stock price.
Finally speaking of Tesla, this is the clearest.
TeslaThe first is a battery company, the second is an electric vehicle company, and the last is an AI company.
I will be in charge of a new energy vehicle research project at Didi. I have researched all domestic and foreign electric vehicle manufacturers, and directly said the conclusion at the time: Tesla’s battery management technology is leading the industry At least 3 years.
The same battery, I am cheaper than you, the same cheap battery, I am more energy efficient than you.
High efficiency means higher battery life, which means an irreplaceable cost advantage. This is exactly the cost head in new energy vehicles. This technology alone is very valuable, even if Tesla really does not build a car, it can make money selling battery packs. This is one of them.
Second, everyone should understand the Model 3’s production capacity crisis. Everyone questioned Elon Musk’s ability to land. At the same time, because Tesla had a debt that was too high, Musk also loved to force the market to create it. High psychological expectations, the joint effort of all parties caused the stock price to experience a wave of plunge. Tesla has been the shortest favorite of global shorts for a long time.
But! As a Musk hardcore fan, I have faith.
First of all, how can the Model 3 be criticized for productivity? It’s just a question of “when will it be built?” There is no question of “it will not be built.” Once the capacity problem is resolved, the sales problem does not exist at all. Just look at the predetermined number and you will know. With a little more patience, it will definitely rise back.
Second, Musk said something with his mouth every time and could not fulfill it at the promised time. His controversial halo would amplify the market ’s bearish expectations that this expectation had not been fulfilled. But it does provide us with a better time to get on board.
Third, Tesla is an AI company and an AI company doing driverless technology. For example, you took a didi to go home from work and spent 100 yuan. Here, 30 yuan is depreciation of the car, 30 yuan is oil money, and 40 yuan is labor cost. (The actual model is more complicated than this, we estimate it roughly)
In the past, we spent a lot of effort on optimizing routes and finding more fuel-efficient and cost-effective models, but these are all corner down costs. If the driver can be “killed”, the cost will be directly reduced by 40%. This is a qualitative change.
The major factories are competing for the driverless track, and Tesla is still the leader in this track. Baidu got a self-driving car on the road at that time, and the major media were speculating. TessHundreds of thousands of real-world vehicles collect road information on the road. The gap between the real data volume is geometric progression, and the advantages of the model algorithm are also obvious.
Of course, the specific analysis can be said for a long time, we will not start for time reasons. Finally, I will give you a picture. This is a section from the Tesla business plan written by Musk in 2006:
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Well, all the nirvana that was blown up a decade ago are now realized one by one. Each step is going according to the original plan, the original intention has never changed.
The last person who shocked me like this was Jeff Bezos.
My practice probably supports a point of view. If the three elements of investment are quality, valuation, and timing, then the importance of the three is quality> valuation> timing. But the order of importance of most people in practice is timing> valuation> quality. Putting the cart before the horse can’t defeat the market.
After switching to blockchain investment in 18 years, the battlefield has changed, the composition of players has changed, and the gameplay has also changed. But much of the underlying logic is interoperable. I stepped on a lot of pits and bought a lot of lessons in the currency circle. This experience was very interesting. This is another story. Have a chance, let’s talk next time.
Author: Jason Lee, personal micro signal: jasonlee0311. The market is risky and this article does not constitute specific investment advice.