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As a senior international freight forwarder, He Meiling has recently encountered a “strange” status that has not been seen in her career for two decades.

He Meiling is the deputy general manager in charge of air transportation business of Shandong Combide International Logistics Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Combate International Logistics). In early March, she received a customer’s shipment request: a batch of chemicals and APIs were sent from Beijing Capital International Airport to Lima International Airport in Peru by flight.

However, the new crown epidemic has continued to increase worldwide. Dozens of countries have “closed cities” across the country. A large number of international air routes have been suspended due to suspension of operations and ports. With repeated urging by He Meiling, the customer finally booked a cabin on March 10 at a high price of 46 yuan / kg.

On March 15th, before the flight took off, the freight rate skyrocketed, which was 27 yuan / kg higher than the previous booking price, and the total freight rate reached 73 yuan / kg, which is higher than More than 3 times in the same period last year! This makes the consignees bitter.

On March 16, when the shipment arrived at the Mexico City transit airport and was about to fly to Lima Airport, Peru, He Meiling suddenly received a notification from the Mexican airport that the transit airline suddenly cancelled the flight. APIs have also been forced to stay at Mexico City Airport … “Now there is great uncertainty in the flights of airlines of various countries. Flight information changes every day, and freight rates increase every day.” He Meiling turned to look at major airlines The company’s quotation sheet lamented that many international air cargo quotations exceeded 100 yuan, 200 yuan, and some even had the strange phenomenon that the freight exceeded the value of the cargo.

Recently, the vast majority of freight orders of He Meiling and Compete International Logistics Co., Ltd. were affected by the epidemic situation, and they fell into different “depressions” to varying degrees. , Triggering a series of violent vibrations, the itinerary is full of unpredictable risks …

On March 24, the State Council executive work meeting pointed out that the current international air passenger contraction due to the impact of the epidemic situation has caused a significant decline in passenger cargo in the belly compartment, which has a greater impact on the international supply chain of our industry.

China’s overseas air routes are connected to Chinese factories on one end and to overseas customers on the other, which is the middle link of China’s foreign trade. Whether a foreign trade order can be finally reached depends on whether the goods can arrive on time. Foreign trade goods encountered a “dead course”, which also reflects the current situation of China’s foreign trade industry.

Air freight suspension

The sudden cancellation of the Mexican flight made the journey that could be reached by just one stop less promising, and also increased the number of foreign trade transactions.

With the repeated urging of the cargo owner, on March 16th and 17th, He Meiling mobilized various resources to find new transit flights and classes for this batch of APIs urgently. The available reply is not the class rush As soon as it was empty, the flight was forced to be cancelled.

It turned out that due to the growing epidemic in the Americas, Peru announced on March 15th that it was in an “emergency” state for 15 days; on March 16, dozens of flights were cancelled at one time by Mexico City Airport, and He Meiling made a reservation The flights from Mexico to Lima Airport in Peru are just one of them.

While she was doing everything she could do but was helpless, on March 17, He Meiling suddenly received a notification from the original carrier that she could contact other airlines to continue the transshipment, but the freight would increase accordingly. As for when it will be able to start shipping again and how much freight will increase, it is still unknown …

A series of sudden changes make this export business a dilemma: if it continues to transfer, it must bear unpredictable high freight and storage fees; if it is abandoned halfway, it must bear the round-trip freight from Beijing to Mexico, otherwise the goods Unable to retrieve … I can’t get the order. I feel depressed when I receive it. I can’t feel anxious when I receive it.

He Meiling said that this batch of goods is chemical raw materials, and freight rates have repeatedly increased, which may make Chinese goods lose competitiveness and export companies lose customers and markets.

Not only this single transaction, starting from January 2020, the vast majority of He Meiling’s freight orders on hand were affected by the epidemic, and there was such a stigma. The originally smooth foreign trade freight industry was like an airplane. Into the thick cloud layer, a series of violent vibrations are triggered, and the journey is full of unpredictable risks …

Many countries start a week off on January 1st every year. After January 7, foreign companies began to resume work and place orders with domestic manufacturers. China’s foreign trade and import and export of goods have gradually returned to normal. Since January 20, Chinese enterprises have been taking holidays during the Spring Festival, and the volume of international imports and exports has fallen again.

He Meiling originally thought that the international aviation industry could resume as usual after the Spring Festival. What is quite different from previous years is that the outbreak of the new crown virus virus suddenly broke out, and a large number of Chinese companies could not resume work and resume production. There have been countries that restrict flights from China and refuse to export goods. Closing, the business volume of its freight forwarding company has repeatedly declined.

From the end of February to the beginning of March, when the domestic epidemic situation has rapidly improved and the overseas epidemic situation has not spread widely, the products produced by Chinese factories are rushed to be delivered abroad. Many goods that were originally transported by sea or land are temporarily transferred to air to avoid delays in breach of contract. Prior to this, the backlog of air waybills also started to move, and the freight forwarding business in charge of He Meiling once surged. However, all people expected that the situation of domestic epidemic situation continued to improve, but the situation of epidemic situation abroad suddenly changed.News of the country’s “cities to be closed” and air transport suspended, the foreign trade freight business that has just warmed up has once again fallen to the bottom …

As of March 23, more than 60 countries worldwide have declared a state of emergency, with Italy, Spain, France, Poland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, South Korea, the Philippines, El Salvador, the United States, Costa Rica, Argentina, Peru, Colombia … and even Many countries have been forced to “close the country” and “retreat.”

In this context, despite the drop in international oil prices, news of flight cancellations by major airlines around the world is one after another. “British Air cancels Beijing and Shanghai flights until April 17” “Air France decides to extend suspension of Beijing and Shanghai routes until March 29, 2020 (inclusive)” “Lufthansa will cancel March 29 to April 24 23,000 flights per day “” Poland Airlines suspends Chinese routes (Beijing Daxing, Beijing Capital) until March 28 “… Even the London-New York route, which is known as” the most profitable route in the world “, was also affected by the new crown Continuing effects, with 24 planned reductions in March.

“Closure of the city” and “halt of navigation” have triggered frequent incidents of international air transport. Just on March 14, He Meiling helped customers book a cargo space from Beijing to Warsaw Airport. Before the departure, she was suddenly notified that Poland had “closed the city” and that the booked flight was cancelled due to force majeure. He Meiling had to urgently change to another airline, and air freight charges also increased by 15 yuan per kilogram.

What’s more dramatic is that on March 16, a cargo from Jinan Yatu Logistics Service Co., Ltd. flew from Beijing to Warsaw, Poland: the plane just landed at Warsaw Airport, but was suddenly informed that the country has closed logistics Corridor, only personnel are allowed to enter, and all goods are refused entry. In the end, the batch of export goods flew a circle in the sky and was shipped back to China, and the owner had to bear double the freight.

Unknown “strange” status quo

Lines change day by day and freight rates rise day by day, creating a strange situation that has not existed in the international freight industry for decades.

Teng Zhigang is the legal representative of Jinan Yatu Logistics Service Company (hereinafter referred to as “Yatu Logistics”) and has been working in the international freight forwarding industry for nearly 30 years. “I have never seen such a bizarre phenomenon in international air freight prices,” he said.

There are two types of international air cargo prices: publicly quoted prices and cargo prices. Generally, the price received by the freight forwarder is always a discounted price, which is a few percent lower than the publicly quoted price. But nowadays, the route has been greatly reduced, a large number of domestic cargo owners are lining up to ship, and the supply and demand have reversed. The freight price received by the freight forwarder has far exceeded the public offer-the situation has changed too quickly and the conventional public offer has lost its reference value.

For example, Teng Zhigang recently shipped 170 kilograms of cargo from Jinan, China to Amsterdam Airport in the Netherlands. The freight is calculated as 780 euros based on the publicly listed prices of airlines, but in fact it is as high as more than 1,100 euros!

One of Yatu Logistics’ recently completed business was a 40Many kilograms of goods were shipped from Beijing, China to Frankfurt, Germany. After paying more than 3,000 yuan in freight at 80 yuan / kg, the owner smirked to the freight manager that the air freight had already exceeded the value of the cargo itself.

Right now, public cargo quotes from major airlines are no longer relevant. When the domestic air freight price fell to the “cabbage price” of tens of yuan, the international air freight price skyrocketed from 20-30 yuan per kilogram, and the United States, Africa, South America, the Middle East … more and more airline booking prices broke hundred.

In the same period of previous years, the air freight rate from China to the United States was 20-30 yuan per kilogram. However, the freight rate for some routes to the United States now exceeds the 200 yuan / kg mark. The air freight of a 100 kg cargo is as high as 20,000 yuan or more, and the logistics cost has far exceeded door-to-door express delivery. Teng Zhigang sighed in his exchanges with his peers, “Is this shipping, or is it giving away money!”

On March 17, China ’s Shanghai (PVG) air freight to Dammam Dammam (DMM) actually hit a record high of 200 yuan / kg. Because China is relatively close to Saudi Arabia, this price level has also been called “a moment to witness history” by industry insiders.

It’s not just the ridiculous high freight rates, it’s hard to get a single ticket, and it makes China’s foreign trade air transport lines intermittent. Due to the global spread of the epidemic, more and more nations have closed cities and routes have been suspended. Many freight forwarders report that sometimes customers hesitate because of the high freight, and the space is immediately rushed to be booked by other freight forwarders; if the cargo owner still wants to ship, they must continue to wait, the farther back, the fewer flights, the higher the freight.

For example, on March 6th, a company producing nitrogen removal equipment wanted to airlift two batches of goods from Beijing to Ethiopia. The freight rate at the time of booking was more than 30 yuan / kg, which may have risen by the time of shipment on March 20. To more than 50 yuan / kg, more than three times higher than before. When the cargo owner wanted to send the second batch of cargo, he was informed that after March 10th, Ethiopia would be “sealed” and all flights would be “sealed”.

On March 16, a herbicide production company just booked a cabin and wanted to send a batch of products to Australia. At that time, the price was more than 60 yuan / kg. On March 23, we suddenly received a notification from Cathay Pacific Airways. The Australian route has been grounded and the cargo cannot be shipped.

According to Flightglobal, in the face of the current plunge in passenger demand, strong freight demand, and soaring freight rates, the International Aviation Group (IAG) intends to change passenger aircraft to cargo aircraft and perform cargo tasks. Previously, airlines such as South Korea and Cathay Pacific have begun to use passenger planes to carry cargo. Some people in the industry said that if both air passenger and freight are priced by weight, freight at a price of more than 100 yuan per kilogram is equivalent to the price of air passenger.

However, a person in the freight industry believes that the current air freight price is the price in line with the market law. The so-called high price is compared. In the past, there was excess capacity, vicious competition, and unit freight rates.Running at a low level for a long time, if there is no policy support from all parties, the cost will not be covered at all. Judging from the recent market conditions and prices, cargo airlines have just been able to achieve small profits without relying on policy.

Unpredictable risks

The plunge in capacity and the surge in freight rates have plunged China’s air cargo industry into a depression. A number of freight forwarders reported to the Economic Observer that since this year, the import and export air transport business has decreased by more than 50%, especially more than 80% in February and March.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in terms of US dollars, in the first two months of this year, China’s imports fell by 4% year-on-year and exports fell by 17.2%.

Introduced by a freight forwarder of Sinotrans Changhang Group, fresh foreign trade products are basically suspended due to timeliness requirements and air transportation has no time guarantee; due to successive overseas shutdowns and production shutdowns, mechanical products have also been significantly Down. At present, most of the goods in transit are high-value, high-margin cosmetics, chemicals, and precision instruments. Due to the rigid demand for raw materials and killing supplies required for epidemic prevention, there has been a clear upward trend.

He Meiling introduced that in January-February this year, it was difficult to obtain a ticket for China’s imported aviation class. All of the sudden increase were foreign anti-epidemic materials. In March, it was the opposite. On the one hand, the export capacity decreased, and on the other hand, a large number of anti-epidemic materials began Export, because these materials are rigid demand, not sensitive to freight, occupy a large space.

From inquiring and deciding positions, arranging positions, and then officially starting shipping, overseas shipping prices are high and change from day to day. But this is not the scariest thing in foreign trade today. Affected by the epidemic, various uncertain risks such as return risks, high storage risks, and non-return risks in cross-border transportation are the most difficult.

Teng Zhigang’s Yatu Logistics recently received the latest policy of the Russian airport: due to force majeure factors caused by the epidemic, there is no guarantee for the time of departure and the loss of goods for any transit goods at the Russian airport. This means that once the goods are lost, there is no way to claim them. At present, high-value items are transported by air, and the foreign trade risks of Chinese companies have suddenly increased.

Currently, only large ports in China’s overseas air routes can guarantee normal operations. However, the above freight forwarding manager of Sinotrans Changhang Group was informed on March 17 that the borders of many EU countries have been blocked, and “truck flights” at airports in Germany and other countries have been stopped due to road congestion and impassability. This makes China’s foreign trade worse.

“Truck flights” undertake the road transportation between large and small ports. Due to the large number of European countries, they are close to each other. Most of the cargo is transported by air to large ports and hub airports, and then transferred by trucks to nearby countries. The sudden suspension of “truck flights” will expose a large number of goods in transit to the risk of unreachable, which may be accompanied by a series of risks such as return risks, high storage risks, and non-return risks.

The State Council executive work meeting on March 24 stated that effective measures should be taken to improve China’s international air cargoCapabilities not only focus on guaranteeing the security of transportation, supply and support, supporting the domestic economy, but also promoting the enhancement of the international competitiveness of China’s logistics industry. “At the moment, the government is starting to support enterprises. Every foreign trade company is doing everything possible to win orders, successfully ship, complete transactions, and recover accounts, hoping to survive the global crisis. But many links in international trade are not just China Enterprises, China’s economic environment can be determined unilaterally. “The boss of a foreign trade company that produces machinery products in Shandong worried.

In fact, in the global epidemic, domestic enterprises and overseas customers will face a substantial increase in operating costs such as raw material prices, staff wages, freight, and epidemic prevention expenses. It is likely that due to force majeure, the counterparty will delay payment, A series of unpredictable risks such as lost goods, bad debts, and defaults.

The boss is most worried that China’s epidemic prevention and control will be effective in the short term by changing space for time and fighting annihilation. However, some countries’ response strategies are not the same or will be a protracted war. The foreign trade business she runs will face a long cold winter.