This article is from WeChat public account: 瞭望 智库 (ID: zhczyj) , author: Deyong (CASS Institute of Finance researcher strategy), editor: Li Haoran, head Figure from: vision China < / p>
The new crown pneumonia epidemic is sudden, the flow of people and logistics is limited, and economic activities are forced to press the “pause button”, and residents’ various consumption has decreased significantly.
To co-ordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the economic and social development, based on a series of economic policies and measures adopted by the central government to relieve the consumption and promote the stabilization of consumption, many localities have adapted measures to local conditions, and found ways to reduce the impact of the epidemic on consumption and thus the economy, and to release consumption Vouchers as a response.
From March 27, Hangzhou will continue to issue consumer vouchers to all employees in Hangzhou (including foreign visitors from Hangzhou) . The government issued a quota of 500 million yuan for this round of coupons, of which 15 million yuan was used for subsidies for the needy, and the remaining 485 million yuan was used for the issuance of electronic coupons. The cycle of consumer coupon activities was from March 27 to May 31.
At the same time, the matching amount of merchant matching discounts is about 1.18 billion yuan, and the actual total value of consumer coupons is expected to reach 1.68 billion yuan.
In fact, the starting city of this round of consumer coupons is Nanjing. MarchOn the 13th, Nanjing officials announced that “super 300 million consumer vouchers! Send!”, Instantly attracted the attention of all over the country.
Since then, Ningbo, Jinan, Qingdao, Hefei and other cities have also launched coupon policies. On the other side of the Pacific, the United States, which has been hit by the epidemic, has also released “big moves”:
On March 27, local time, US President Trump signed the US $ 2 trillion economic stimulus bill passed on the day of Congress, which is designed to boost the economy in trouble due to the epidemic. A single economic stimulus package, which includes direct payments to individuals and families in the United States, which has received widespread media attention, at $ 1,200 per person.
The United States has implemented two rounds of stimulus bills in response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic. US House Speaker Pelosi said on the 29th that the $ 2 trillion bill is only the first batch of funds.
Consumption is an important engine of economic growth. Whether direct money issuance or consumer coupons are issued, it is to stimulate consumption. Can these measures make consumption “recover blood” quickly? Can it effectively stimulate consumption potential? Let’s talk today.
1. Both issuing coupons and “spending money” are intended to stimulate consumption
Whether you issue consumer coupons or money, the purpose is the same, to promote consumption and stabilize the economy.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic is a major public health emergency that has occurred in China since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The speed of transmission, the scope of infection, and the difficulty of prevention and control have greatly exceeded the past, and normal economic and social activities have been disrupted.
Overall, although the fundamentals of the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy have not changed, and the impact of the epidemic is short-term and generally controllable, it cannot be denied that the impact of the epidemic on the current Chinese economy is all-round, The impact on consumption is particularly evident.
In recent years, consumption has become the first driving force for China’s economic growth. Whether consumption is good or not depends on how economic growth is.However, the current reality is that due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, residents’ outings have sharply decreased, all kinds of consumption have been greatly reduced, and the consumer market has been greatly affected. Shrink to varying degrees.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods across the country decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 28.7 percentage points from the same period last year. The adverse impact of the epidemic on residents’ consumption has weakened the role of consumption as the first driving force for economic growth and has dragged down economic operations.
On March 21, Yinlou Gulou Shangjie Night Market gradually resumed business.
It is necessary to prevent and control the epidemic and also to stabilize economic operations. In view of the fundamental role of consumption in economic development and economic stabilization, it is clear that consumption promotion must be placed in a particularly prominent position.
Therefore, according to the needs of the consumption situation, many places proceed from the local reality and use consumer vouchers as an optional policy tool to promote consumption recovery and release consumption potential.
As the epidemic spreads worldwide, the global economy is suffering. The Trump administration in the midst of the bitter fight against epidemic disease, in order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the economy, has continued to offer economic stabilization measures.
The United States is the world ’s largest consumer, and the importance of consumption to the U.S. economy is self-evident. Therefore, one of these economic stabilization measures is to “sell money” to Americans-1200 per adult US $ (about RMB 8520; 1 USD is about RMB 7.1, the same below) , USD 2400 per couple, USD 500 per child .
After the personal income reaches 75,000 US dollars and the husband and wife income reaches 150,000 US dollars, the amount obtained gradually decreases. These subsidies can be used to pay rent or other bills, or to buy necessities, which are not only helpful to protect the basic needs of ordinary American families,It will help promote consumption and slow the impact of the epidemic on the US economy.
Many countries have also launched economic stimulus plans to implement rescue. The Korean government announced on March 30 that it will issue a one-time “emergency disaster subsidy” to 70% of Korean families, with a total amount of about 9.1 trillion won. (about 529 Billion yuan), to deal with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the economy and people ’s livelihood.
The French government is preparing to launch an emergency rescue plan of 45 billion euros (approximately RMB 15584 billion) assistance plan to Protect employment and mitigate the economic impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
2. Extraordinary strategies for extraordinary times
Promote consumption and stabilize the economy. It is better to take action than not to take action. Issuing consumer vouchers or cash is worth trying.
In order to stimulate consumption, realize consumption recovery and release consumption potential as soon as possible, many places have issued consumer vouchers to help the key industries such as catering and tourism recover.
Nanjing is expected to issue a total of 318 million yuan of consumer vouchers. Ningbo intends to launch a 100 million yuan cultural and tourism consumer voucher. Jinan will issue 20 million yuan of cultural travel vouchers. Jiangxi plans to issue 10 million yuan of tourism electronic consumption. Coupons, Zhejiang is planning to launch a total of 1 billion yuan cultural tourism consumption vouchers and 100 million yuan cultural tourism spending red envelopes, Guangxi will issue 100 million yuan warm heart consumption coupons … In a short period of time, a large wave of consumer coupons is on the way .
Take Nanjing as an example. The total local consumer vouchers amounted to 318 million yuan, mainly including 7 categories, including catering vouchers, sports vouchers, book vouchers, rural travel vouchers, information vouchers, consumer vouchers for poor people, and vouchers for union members.
The face value of consumption vouchers is set at 100 yuan or 50 yuan each according to different types; 3 types of consumption vouchers such as rural tourism, members of trade unions in need are issued according to relevant requirements in the system, and 4 types of consumption such as catering, sports, books and information CouponMulti-batch online lottery method is used for public distribution to all citizens.
In fact, back in 2009, in response to the impact of international finance, Hangzhou issued 700 million yuan of consumer coupons to specific groups twice. From an international perspective, the practice of issuing consumer vouchers has long been abroad. For example, Japan also issued consumer coupons called “regional revitalization coupons” to specific groups during the economic downturn in 1999, with a total of 619.4 billion yen, which is 20,000 yen per person.
Many places issue consumer vouchers in large numbers, and what they value is their pulling action. The sluggish consumption caused by the epidemic not only puts the economy under greater downward pressure, but also brings severe challenges to employment. Therefore, it is urgent to inject a strengthening agent into the consumer market to make it recover as quickly as possible.
At present, No matter which form of consumer voucher is used, most of them need to use a certain proportion of cash when using it, which will make consumers match the voucher when using the voucher, which magnifies consumption. Amount to achieve the purpose of expanding consumption. This is one of them.
Second, expanding consumption through the form of consumer coupons can bring a series of positive chain reactions to economic activities. For example, tourist vouchers are issued to restore the prosperity of the tourism market, which increases the number of tourists. In addition to the direct benefits of tourist attractions, the catering, accommodation, retail, and entertainment industries will also benefit.
As a result, the injection of consumer coupon factors has stimulated the boom of tourism and related industries.
Third, the specific investment direction of consumer coupons, such as investment in service industries, regions and groups that have been severely affected by the epidemic, can reflect the effectiveness of precise policy, and promote relevant industries, regions and groups to achieve consumption replenishment and Unlocking consumer potential.
A lot of people will ask, why does n’t China “spend money” directly to the people like the United States?
For China, the time limit, specificity, and specificity of consumer coupons make it possible to drive consumption.Immediate effect. In contrast, the pulling effect of cash on consumption is difficult to determine.
Chinese people have the habit of saving. The cash issued may be used for current consumption, but it is also likely to be saved instead of being used for current consumption and become part of household savings, or flow to non-consumption such as financial markets and real estate Field, it is difficult to achieve the purpose of stimulating consumption.
The United States, on the contrary, is a country with high consumption and high debt. Contrary to the habit of saving money, most Americans basically spend their money or spend overdue credit cards, and don’t have much deposit.
When an epidemic strikes, both individuals and families are vulnerable to risk tolerance. At the same time, the U.S. stock market has experienced four meltdowns recently, the unemployment rate has risen rapidly, and the possibility of a recession in the United States has risen significantly. In this way, issuing cash can not only protect the lives of ordinary Americans as much as possible, but also stabilize consumption, and help stimulate the economy.
It can be said that both strategies are determined by their actual conditions.
3. It is better to cure the symptoms when the symptoms are dealt with.
If it is said that the issue of consumer vouchers or cash deposits is a “short and quick” measure, then many measures can be taken to promote consumption and stabilize the economy.
Issuing consumer coupons to promote consumption is the intermediate goal, and economic stability is the ultimate goal. From past experience, the effect of consumption vouchers to promote economic growth in the short term is more obvious.
For example, when Japan launched the “Regional Revitalization Voucher” in 1999, the economy was in a prolonged downturn after the burst of the bubble economy. However, during the period from April to September when the voucher was introduced and used, Japanese consumption increased by 0.5% and 0.3 respectively % In order to get rid of the decline for two consecutive quarters; in the second and third quarters of 0.4% and -0.1% of the GDP growth rate, the contribution of consumption reached 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points respectively.
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