This article is from the WeChat public account: Internet and Entertainment Strange Team (ID: TMTphantom) , author: monster head group Pei culture, the subject map from: IC PHOTO
How long can Ruixing coffee last? From my observation, maybe it won’t be too long
(April 7, 2019)
Is Lucky Coffee really “cheap”?
(February 2, 2020)
In April 2019, I first realized an understanding in my mind: Ruixing Coffee has a problem with its business model and its financial data is likely to be unreliable. It should not last long. At the time, I thought it would last for 1-2 years; I did not expect that it would not last even a year.
In February 2020, after the muddy waters shorted Ruixing’s report, I still think it can last a few months. Because the short evidence is mainly microscopic, it is impossible to prove the company’s counterfeiting at a macro level; the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020 gave Ruixing a chance to take a financial bath.
I did not expect that Ruixing Coffee will acknowledge its fraud on April 2nd, 2020. (April 1, US time) Already. The ratio of forged revenue this time is likely to be one of the largest in history: Of the 2.9 billion in operating income, 2.2 billion was suspected of forgery. Now it seems that Ruixing Coffee’s withdrawalAnyone who has invested in the Internet industry. I have seen too many people who use the term “Internet” to cut leeks. The most successful of them is probably Jia Yueting. I have also met some investors who do not understand, but they can’t say why. I am particularly cautious and even hostile towards the word “flow”, so I do not appreciate the concept of “flow stars”, “self-circulation of traffic”, and “second realization of traffic”.
I’m not targeting anyone, I’m targeting those scammers.
Again, PR (public relations) activities of Ruixing Coffee are particularly active. For a while, it was difficult to find self-media articles criticizing it in the market, let alone research reports. A friend of a third-party research institution told me that at this moment, after Rui Xing publicly acknowledged the fraud, many media, consulting companies, and even the circle of friends were afraid to forward it. After the head of the strange thief group published those two articles that were short of Ruixing Coffee, they received anti-messages or private letters like snow flakes, some of which were arranged by the company.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that companies shouldn’t do PR; many high-quality companies do PR well. However, Rui Xing’s overly active PR behavior led to a time when there was no negative evaluation in the market, and even some obvious problems were not pointed out, which is very abnormal. Especially when combined with the above two, it is even more abnormal: a company with a problematic business model and high-level fake Internet thinking on the part of the company attaches great importance to PR, and even more so after the second half of 2019. Is this situation normal?
I’ve been doing corporate and securities research for more than a decade. I increasingly feel that common sense is the key to doing good research and making fewer mistakes. Common sense is the most accessible and overlooked knowledge in the world. If investors who are optimistic about Ruixing can drink a little more coffee, do a little more market research, and appreciate some of the discrepancies in the company’s promotional materials, they are fully capable of avoiding the disaster early.
From common sense, Ruixing Coffee is certainly not the only disaster in the current capital market for the Internet and new consumer industries. Several disasters are still brewing, and even explodededge. However, I cannot confirm, I can only doubt in my heart; after all, I can’t talk without evidence. In any case, common sense is not deceiving, and common sense is best used; we should always keep it in mind.
This article is from WeChat public account: Internet and Entertainment Strange Team (ID: TMTphantom) , author: monster head groups culture PEI