Source of header image: IC photo
March 25 The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) issued an emergency announcement saying: “Unless we act quickly to protect the most vulnerable links To ensure the smooth flow of the global food supply chain and mitigate the impact of the spread of the epidemic on the entire food system, otherwise we will face the imminent risk of a food crisis. ”
As of 16:00 on April 3, there have been more than 1.01 million cases of new coronary pneumonia diagnosed worldwide. Under the impact of the epidemic, Kazakhstan, Vietnam and other large food exporting countries have successively imposed export restrictions on agricultural products or issued export bans. (See Table 1) , A global food crisis seems to be whistling, affecting many parts of the world such as Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, and South America.
Table 1 Related situation of grain export in some countries in March 2020
In the epidemic + locust environment, the turbulent international food market
Natural disasters have caused a large reduction in global food production
In 2019, extreme weather is frequent, and drought and flood disasters are taking place in major food export areas. In North America, floods have severely affected the timing of planting of US crops, and the US Department of Agriculture predicts 2019-2020 wheat and corn production will be reduced by 11% and 12% ; In South Asia, the continued drought in summer reduced the planting area in India to 147,000 square kilometers, a 10% year-on-year decrease.
From the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, unprecedented locust plagues have swept across Africa and South Asia, with an affected area of more than 16 million square kilometers. Among them, the direct economic loss in India is about 10 billion U.S. dollars, or it will result in a 30% -50% reduction in grain output .
Global food prices skyrocket due to export ban
The reduction in grain production, coupled with the current restrictions on exports in many countries due to epidemic prevention demand, has caused an alarming increase in global food product prices. According to the Russian “Businessman”, the Russian wheat price index last week rose 1020 rubles per ton , reaching 13,270 rubles per ton, a record high; Chicago wheat futures have risen since mid-March strong> 15% , and even climbed to $ 5.72 per bushel on March 30; according to the International Council of State (International Grains Council) Data show that the price of Thai rice has risen to $ 490 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 17% .
Chicago Wheat Futures Trend (Source: Internet)
International poverty-stricken areas face the food crisis
Food, as a daily necessity, is also an important strategic material reserve for all countries. If The global supply chain is impacted, the continuous rise in food prices is inevitable, which will likely have a serious impact on countries with high dependence on food imports .
Limited by natural factors, such countries are mainly distributed in Africa and parts of South America. Of the 28 poorest countries in the world, 23 are in Africa, and the proportion of people living in extreme poverty in sub-Saharan regions reaches 41%.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “New Coronavirus Pneumonia (COVID-19) Report on the Impact of the Pandemic on Food and Agriculture, Global About 820 million people are currently facing a local food crisis, of which 113 million are severely food insecure people who rely on external assistance. In addition, the food crisis is expected to easily cause panic. If global food prices are not controlled, it is not difficult to imagine the plight of this part of the population. If the government does not handle it properly, it is very likely to replay the tragedy of “food riots in Africa” in 2008 .
World Grain Self-Sufficiency Map (Source: Network)
Facing the current international situation, a series of worries and doubts about food issues have spread in our country. Can we calmly cope with this test? Do you need to stock up as an ordinary person now? By looking for relevant information publicly available in the country, we have reached the following conclusions:
China has sufficient grain stocks, but grain enterprises may reshuffle
Grain revenue has increased year after year, the state reserves are sufficient, and the “rice bag” is reliable.
The State Council Office announced at a press conference in October 2019: China’s total grain output has been stable at more than 650 million tons since 2015, and grain output has continued to reach new levels. The total national grain output in 2019 reached 66.84 million tons. “label =” Remarks “(11.9 billion catties) , an increase of 0.9%, the highest level in history, and the world’s largest output.
Table 2 National grain sown area, total output and output per unit area in 2019
Note:
① Correct the national summer grain data based on the actual wheat production in some regions such as Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang;
② Due to the automatic carry of the computer, the total number of sub-items is slightly different from the year-round data;
③Data source National Bureau of Statistics.
From the above data, we can clearly know that the domestic grain output is stable. If the world’s normal transaction level is in the past years, there is really no need to worry too much. But currently many countries ban food exports. Will this operation affect our country’s food security?
Considering this level, we have deliberately queried the “China’s Food Security” white paper published by the State Office in 2019. Data show that in 2018 there were a total of 670 million tons of standard grain warehouses and 240 million tons of simple warehouses in China. The total effective warehouse capacity increased by 31.9% over 1996. Total oil tank capacity 2800 million tons, a seven-fold increase over 1996.
If you add reserves from previous years to production in 2019, even if you calculate the annual consumption of about 600 million tons, there is no problem in maintaining two years of survival. In addition, the current epidemic has little effect on the overall spring plowing in China this year, and it is not difficult to conclude that our country’s food security is stable and everyone need not panic.
Other latest data show that the construction of a batch of modern new granaries is gradually starting . For example, on February 24, the expansion of the 90,000-ton soybean reserve in the Xinjin Depot, a subsidiary of the China National Grain and Oil Chengdu Base, began to resume work, and workers arrived in batches at the site. In just 15 days, the shallow round warehouse has taken shape and various construction works are being carried out in an orderly manner. Here are some of the food reserve projects that are being promoted:
Table 3 List of some food reserve projects under construction in 2020
After looking at the overall situation, let’s take a look at the situation of various types of food demand.
Domestic grain is basically self-sufficient, and the supply and demand situation of staple food is good.
Cereals : China ’s self-sufficiency rate exceeds 95%, and rice and wheat continue to increase in income, and they are fully self-sufficient. Imported rice is mainly used to adjust the variety deficit. Imports have declined year by year since 2016 By 2019, imported rice consumption will only account for about 1% of total rice consumption.
From the Monthly Report on the Supply and Demand of the Edible Cereal Market published by the National Grain and Oil Center in January this year, the total domestic rice and wheat consumption in 2019/20 is expected to be 194.1 million tons and 12.35 million tons respectively. 14.01 million tons and 13.6 million tons, the overall data did not fluctuate much compared to the previous year. In general, the supply and demand situation of the two staple foods, rice and wheat, is relatively stable. Under the protection of the market supervision system, the overall price of food in supermarkets is very limited due to fluctuations in international food prices.Will have too much impact on the daily life of ordinary people.
Beans : China ’s soybean dependence on foreign countries once exceeded 85%. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 14, China ’s total soybean imports in 2015 were 85.511 million tons, and it is expected that in 2020 Reached 88 million tons. Although international soybean prices may have a certain impact on China, soybeans are not the main grain in China’s grain structure. Imported soybeans are mainly for feed and oil extraction. The impact on direct rations is relatively small, but it may affect animal husbandry and edible oil. And other adverse effects.
The whole is okay, but the reshuffle of domestic grain companies is accelerating.
Under the strong impact of the epidemic, the “Matthew Effect” of domestic grain companies has become increasingly apparent, and a new round of industry reshuffle is inevitable.
Large companies have strong foundations and strong anti-risk capabilities, and their businesses are progressing steadily. Since the outbreak, in order to ensure food supply, COFCO has accelerated digital transformation and actively cooperated with retailers, launched online home business, and conducted inventory and price monitoring of 8241 stores. In terms of food production, Beidahuang Group, the largest food production company in China, has started to organize its subsidiaries to scientifically control and prepare for spring ploughing, and has opened a new model of “plow farming on the cloud”. As of March 31, it has raised 30.41 billion yuan for spring ploughing. Yuan, completed 99.5%, and contracted out 44.449 million mu of land.
However, the survival of small and medium-sized food companies is quite bumpy.
As far as the flour industry is concerned, as of early March, the overall operating rate of flour enterprises in North China was 54%, and the operating rate of large enterprises reached 40-70%, but that of small and medium-sized enterprises was only 20-40%. Regarding the issue of raw grains in the flour industry, although the summer grains as a whole have some guarantees, the impact of the global epidemic may still lead to a certain reduction in production. At that time, the cost of corporate acquisitions will increase, and the number of acquisitions will be relatively reduced. The profit space of grain and oil processing companies will be reduced, Some small-scale small enterprises may find it difficult to maintain basic production and operation because of problems with raw grains.
From this point of view, the current domestic small and medium-sized grain enterprises are facing severe tests. The state has provided relevant policy support in order to help enterprises weather the crisis. For example, tax reductions, discounted credits, etc., and the network platform that assists the sales of grain and oil products are also being optimized. In the post-epidemic era, international food prices are volatile, and small and medium-sized food companies want to winThe competition of elimination has won. Taking the market as the guidance, vigorously increasing the added value of products, and accelerating the construction of online operations may be a good choice.