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Author ｜ 政 雨

Coordination ｜ Nicole

Edit ｜ Jinyu

Visual ｜ Jiangfei

In April, the flow of people on the street gradually returned to normal.

Some news about the closure of some beverage stores followed.

After reviewing the real data, I found that the epidemic situation may not be the biggest killer behind the 4% closure rate.

Closed shop, coffee shop is more obvious than tea shop

“From the first floor to the second floor, there is no one, and it is especially difficult in sad music”-this is a video of a coffee shop owner in Xi’an vibrating, and resumed business after the epidemic for more than ten days There is almost no one in the sky.

“The cafe downstairs has been open for more than a decade, and it hasn’t been through March, it’s closed”-this is a video released by a customer in Wuhan, and the store she often visited has not survived.

In the more than 70 days that the epidemic continued, compared to the fact that tea shops are mostly in a state of forbearance and quietly tightening their spending to overcome the difficulties, the vulnerability of coffee shops is obvious, concentrated, and the situation is changing:

On April 7th, according to interface news reports, most coffee shops even closed their business, and 400 phones have been busy. Lian Coffee responded that it was not true to close the store again. Related matters related to the closing of the store and equipment handling have been carried out since last year, based on some storefront optimization. But the latest digital language at the store is unknown.

Many stores in Shanghai and Beijing are closed for business

In the past few days, Ruixing Caffeine’s false trading, the market value has evaporated a lot, and the suspension has been announced.

In the beginning of March, there were also reports that coffee brands such as Grey Box and Bruno closed their stores continuously.

Inquiry from the public comment website, some cafes in many cities that are often punched and frequently searched have been suspended.

There are also many cafes that voluntarily publish messages on the public account to inform customers that they will close their shops or close some spaces within a limited time.

From chain brands to independent stores, the news of the closure of cafes has spread intensively, conveying more industry anxiety. But the reality is not so bad.

Data record: about 4% of coffee and tea closed during the epidemic period

Look at two data graphs first:

Data from public comment

The data comes from public comment

The above are the cafes and beverage shops (including tea / juice / ice cream etc.) recorded in real time according to the public review data in the three periods of 2019, November 2019, and April 2020 of the coffee shop respectively. , Hereinafter referred to as tea shop) number of stores.

Horizontal comparison shows that the number of coffee and tea stores has decreased to varying degrees compared to November 2019 and early April 2020. The number of coffee shops is reduced to about 100, and the number of tea shops is reduced to 200. Around home.

This basically reflects the changes in the number of stores in various cities under the influence of the epidemic.

1. Overall, there is indeed a reduction, but the number of fluctuations is not large compared to the total number of stores.

After all, under normal circumstances, the number of stores in various regions will also increase or decrease in different degrees.

2. The number of beverage stores has increased to varying degrees over the same period last year.

Comparing the statistics of early April 2020 and March 2019, that is, observing the fluctuation of the number of stores throughout the year, you can find that the number of beverage stores in most cities has increased to varying degrees over the same period last year. The growth rate of tea shops is higher than that of coffee shops. However, some cities have seen a decrease in the number of stores.

3. The closure rate of cafes during the epidemic period is about 3.7%, and that of tea shops is about 4%.

It can also be seen from the total number: under the epidemic situation, it does bring certain closures. The overall closure rate of coffee shops is 3.7%, and tea shopsThe closure rate was 4%; but compared to the same period last year, cafes increased by 5.2% and tea shops increased by 11.4%.

Objectively speaking, from the current data, it is difficult to draw a direct conclusion that the epidemic has brought a large-scale closure of stores. Perhaps the epidemic has accelerated the closure of some brands, but for more stores that cannot sustain it, all closures are “long-planned.”

What about it?

Most of the failures in the epidemic were “long-term planning”

Vigent is the first vegetarian dessert coffee shop in Hangzhou. On March 2, Zhejiang resumed work completely, but the store sent a push on the public account: Vigent’s powerful store wants to say goodbye to you temporarily, and plans to put aside more than a dozen new categories in 2020.

According to the person in charge, this store has only been open for half a year since August 2019. The original intention of the brand is to promote the vegetarian concept. The main feature is also vegetarian roasting and coffee. The products in the store are all made of plant milk.

However, because the vegetarian characteristics are too niche and lack of operation experience in offline stores, the stores have always maintained the cost status and have no choice but to make plans for closure.

In this wave of closed stores, many cafes closed their stores for reasons similar to Wiegand’s: store owners lacked operational ideas and experience, resulting in single products, wrong location selection, and inconsistent operating strategies.

“Many store owners have an idealistic attitude and like to come according to their own ideas, without combining market needs. This is also likely to be the main reason for them to escape from reality and choose to open stores. Eventually, they are far away from the market and abandoned by the market.” People analysis.

Opening a coffee shop and closing it often means “too much idea” and does not follow the market rules; while opening a tea shop and closing it often means “too little idea” and keeps your head in the dark.

After the epidemic, milk tea consumers will pay more attention to safety and health, and tend to choose large chain and reliable brands, which will bring survival pressure to small and medium-sized brands that lack endorsement and brand value.

And the tea shop owner knows more that the hardship did not start with the epidemic. It ended the crazy run in 2017 and 2018. By the end of the second half of 2019, the industry dividend has subsided, and “alive” has become the highest program of a brand.

Of course, in terms of total consumption, the epidemic has brought a certain reduction. For example, coffee pays more attention to scene needs, and more consumption occurs in places such as overtime, staying up late, socializing, etc., but fewer people meet and work less during the epidemic, resulting in less non-rigid demand.

It ’s not social anymore, and the cafe has become less necessary.

In addition, the epidemic affects income, causes consumption power to decline, and consumption decreases, which will reduce demand to a certain extent.

But overall, for those stores that are already crumbling, the epidemic is just the last bullet, not the biggest source of lethality. The failures in more cases are actually “long-planned.”

“Let us face reality, let us be loyal to our ideals”-this is the introduction of Douban’s “Café is a serious matter” group.

The topics discussed in the group are also showing the market trends and changes: Before February, many cafes began to “face the reality”, and the discussion area was all about store transfer information. After March, the number of “loyal to the ideal” has increased significantly, and there are more and more discussions about opening new stores.

Some people in the industry sent a message that the empty shop with a notice of closing the store was posted downstairs in the area. All the changes were taken over by the tea shop owner and a new round of renovations began.

It ’s always the same room, what ’s changing is the inbound and outbound players, only some people return with a full load, and some leave the field. Who can say that the epidemic is the real killer behind it?