In the first quarter, China ’s RMB loans increased by 7.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.29 trillion yuan year-on-year, providing strong support for epidemic prevention and control, and the resumption of production and production of enterprises. Where did the new loans go? How effective is monetary policy transmission? Can personal consumer loans improve? These have caused widespread concern in the market.


Over 80% of the new loans are invested in enterprises (business)

“Recently, CITIC Bank has provided us with more than 1.8 million yuan for bill discount We solved the capital problem of purchasing raw materials. “Lu Xiaoliang, general manager of Yuyao Lanshan Motor Enterprise Co., Ltd. in Zhejiang Province, told reporters that after the resumption of work in mid-February, the rising cost of raw materials once made the company’s working capital tight. At this time, many banks extended their helping hands. In the end, he chose to discount the bill at a rate of 2.75%, which greatly reduced the financing cost.

The reason why this company can get funds at lower cost is thanks to the People ’s Bank of China rediscount policy support. The People’s Bank of China has increased the re-discount limit of RMB 500 billion and the re-discount rate of 2.25% to the banks, giving the banks more incentive and ability to support enterprises.

“The current counter-cyclical effect of monetary policy is gradually showing, and financial support for the real economy is increasing.” Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that in a series of monetary policies With support, the intensity and scale of credit is far higher than the same period last year, and the scale of new loans in March rebounded sharply.

Statistics show that RMB loans in March increased by 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year. In the first quarter, loans to enterprises (businesses) increased by 6.04 trillion yuan.

Ruan Jianhong, Director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People ’s Bank of China, introduced that loans in the first quarter were mainly invested in the real economy, and 85.1% of the total new loans were allocated to enterprises (business) Units, short-term loans provide necessary liquidity support for the normal operation of enterprises, and medium- and long-term loans provide long-term capital guarantee for enterprises to resume production and production.

Experts said that the increase in credit supply and the recovery of corporate financing demand have driven a sharp rebound in new social financing in March from both the supply and demand sides. Both on- and off-balance sheet financing are obvious Growth, corporate and government bond issuance has further accelerated.


Monetary policy transmission efficiency has improved significantly

Recently, Tianhong Yuebao Fund ’s 7-year annualized return rate fell below 2% for several consecutive days. This not only relates to personal financial income, but also reflects some new macro-level Changes.

Dong Ximiao, a special researcher at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said that since the beginning of this year, the People ’s Bank of China has adopted comprehensive RRR cuts, targeted RRR cuts, open market operations, and structured monetary policy. Tools, etc., provide reasonable and sufficient liquidity to the market and guide the overall downward interest rate of the market, and the interest rates of market-oriented deposit products such as money market funds and structured deposits also fall.

In March, Broad Currency (M2) increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded sharply. The market liquidity is reasonably ample, but some companies are still “thirsty”. Some market participants worry that the liquidity released by the People ’s Bank Partial siltation will occur.

In response, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People ’s Bank of China, said that from the perspective of “quantity”, the People ’s Bank of China passed the RRR cut in the first quarter. Tools such as refinancing Long-term liquidity is about 2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans are 7.1 trillion yuan. That is to say, every 1 yuan of liquidity support supports a loan growth of about 3.5 yuan. From the “price” point of view, March is generally The loan interest rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage points from the high point of last year, and this year has dropped by 0.26 percentage points, which is significantly more than the decline in the medium-term lending facility winning bid rate and the loan market quote rate (LPR).

< / div> “This shows that the effects of monetary policy have been transmitted to the real economy. “Sun Guofeng believes that compared with international comparison, China ’s monetary policy has a higher transmission efficiency and no liquidity siltation phenomenon. Reasonable and sufficient liquidity is not flooding. From the perspective of interest rates, they are all far away from the “liquidity trap.”

At present, there are still many small and medium-sized enterprises facing cash flow pressure and difficulty in capital turnover, eager to get Financial support. Dong Ximiao believes that the monetary policy transmission mechanism should be further improved, the bank ’s system of due diligence and exemption should be implemented, the tolerance of non-performing loans should be appropriately increased, and the enthusiasm for bank lending should be stimulated.


Positive changes in personal consumer loans

Expanding consumption is an important focus of the adverse impact of hedging outbreaks, which cannot be separated from the support of consumer finance. The household sector loans improved significantly in March, especially personal consumption loans turned from falling to rising, showing positive changes.

“The household sector is the main consumer sector of the national economy, and its increased confidence is conducive to the recovery of the real economy.” Ruan Jianhong introduced, affected by the epidemic, the consumer credit in the first quarter was substantial Decreased, but the situation changed in March, with a new personal consumption loan of 609.4 billion yuan in the month, which reversed the net decline in February. Among them, personal housing loans increased by 347.2 billion yuan, and other consumer loans increased by 262.2 billion yuan.

Inside the industry, in addition to the positive changes in the field of consumer credit, as China ’s epidemic prevention and control has achieved periodic results, comprehensively promoted the resumption of production and production, the production and operation of enterprises The demand for funds has also gradually increased, and bank acceptance bills issued by enterprises in March began to recover significantly, indicating that China’s economy is improving marginally.

“As the government promotes the gradual commencement of investment projects for major projects, the corresponding loan demand will also grow rapidly.” Ruan Jianhong said that from the results of the questionnaire survey of the bankers of the People ’s Bank of China Look, the expected index of loan demand in the second quarter is 83.1%, 17.1 percentage points higher than the first quarter.

Experts suggest that future credit investment should further increase support for major infrastructure construction projects, new infrastructure, livelihood projects and other fields, support residents ’consumption upgrades, and improve private The credit ratio of enterprises and small, medium, and micro enterprises has been continuously optimized.

(The original title is “Where did 7.1 trillion new loans go?-Interpretation of China ’s financial data for the first quarter”)