First, the intersection of historical cycles
“The cycle is not something like tonsils, which can be removed individually, but like a heartbeat, It is the core of the human organism. “This is the testimony written by the famous economist Joseph Schumpeter in his book” The Theory of Economic Cycles “, which was about mid-1939.
At that time, the world powers were slowly recovering from the global economic depression that broke out in 1929-1933. Declining production, corporate bankruptcy, and a surge in unemployment led to populism and trade wars Prevailing in the world, the rumbling gunfire is coming from afar.
80 years later, the causes of the Great Depression-insufficient demand and low productivity, high debt cycles and asset bubbles, disparity between the rich and the poor, and political polarization, In today’s world, instead of eliminating it, it is more serious. Are we living in a better era?
When we look back in time and try to understand the cause of all this and the future direction of confusion, we will find that history is also periodic, and will follow various Different time spans and different types of cycles fluctuate and the tide rises and falls, and the cycle repeats.
Humanity is advancing in the long course of history and constantly making new achievements. However, from the financial bailouts of ancient Greece and Rome, to the financial folly during the tulip bubble in the 17th century, to the speculative fanaticism of bitcoin in the 21st century, the financial bubble and its post-bursting crises staged at an alarming frequency.
It is estimated that in the past 400 years, a crisis cycle of bubble prosperity and burst occurred every 8 to 14 years. Since the 1980s, financial liberalization and financial innovation have deepened, and global trade and capital flows have grown significantly. These factors have deepened the trend of economic financialization. From the “Black Monday” of the global stock market in 1987 to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, to the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the resulting global economic recession, financial crises have become more common, and the impact of contagion has also increased. Come bigger. The recurrence of this speculative fanaticism based on high debt and the resulting financial crisis and huge destructive power are inherent in the financial system, but also originate from the hope, greed and fear of countless participants in the financial market.
Technical revolution is not only the basic content of historical evolution, but also the basic driving force for the historical cycle. In the long history of mankind, the first industrial revolution and the steam era began in 1830 (18