On April 14, A-shares rebounded in shock, welcoming general gains. In the end, the three major Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes closed up more than 1%, and the GEM index rose 3.24%.
At this point, the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted its low from 2646.8 points on March 19 to 2827.28 points closed on April 14 and has rebounded more than 180 points. So, has the A share completed its bottom-up?
“Overall, the A-share market has now completed the process of bottoming out and entered the stage of bottom-building rebound .” Qianhai Kaiyuan The fund’s chief economist Yang Delong judged.
Yang Delong pointed out that this round of decline in the A-share market was dragged down by the external market, and the spread of overseas epidemics may have a second impact on domestic economic growth, so it caused Investors are worried, but the valuation of A shares is already at the bottom of history, and some high-quality stocks have also been bruised in this round of decline. There will inevitably be good opportunities in the later period, so it is very important to stick to value investment.
However, Yang Delong also said that the recovery of market confidence will take time , the completion of the global financial market tremendous earthquake requires three stages, and has now entered In the second stage, from the liquidity depletion stage to the liquidity improvement stage, global assets rebounded. The European and American stock markets that had fallen more before also showed a larger rebound, but this does not mean that the tremor ended. European and American stock markets will have repeated occurrences , and the gold that was mistakenly killed before has experienced a big rebound or even hit a new high, as expected, because gold as a safe-haven asset was mistakenly killed in the first stage.
For the stocks that suddenly emerged due to news driven on Tuesday afternoon, Yang Delong said that from April 1, foreign brokers have fully entered the domestic market, all Some large international brokers, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Nomura Securities, etc., have formed a certain competition for domestic brokers, but also formed the catfish effect. Therefore, domestic mergers and reorganization of large brokerages in China will help foster large international brokerages . Of course, shareholders need to inject assets and net capital investment into large securities firms to enhance this business capability. Ironing also needs to be hard, so it has a favorable position in the competition with foreign brokers.
Yang Delong also paid attention to the 6 billion yuan repurchase plan thrown by Gree Electric (000651).
In his view, share repurchase means reducing the circulation of stocks in the market and increasing earnings per share, which is conducive to rising stock prices. In addition, stock repurchase of large companies also means that the company has sufficient cash Strong capital strength is also a way to give back to investors . In mature markets such as the United States, large companies generally use repurchases and cash dividends to reward investors.
Yang Delong pointed out that these stocks are generally written off after repurchasing stocks, which is equivalent to reducing the number of stocks circulated by the entire company, thereby increasing earnings per share (EPS), which increases the gold content of stocks, is conducive to the rise of stock prices. For the shareholders, it increased the shareholders’ equity, and the repurchase released a positive signal, indicating that the management believes that the current company’s stock price is underestimated, at least not expensive, so he is willing to take the repurchase method. He may also bring more stock price rises, thereby helping to increase the value of shareholders. Of course, like cash dividends, for shareholders ’equity, in fact, the repurchase did not directly increase the shareholders’ equity on the book, but because the positive signal was released and the share price rose, it indirectly increased the market value of shareholders ’shares. .
“Over the past few years, the overall trend of the A-share market has been relatively sluggish. Except for a few outstanding Bailong horse stocks whose stock prices continue to reach new highs, most stock prices are at the bottom of history. Therefore, some large shareholders take advantage of this opportunity to repurchase, which is an encouraging thing and a way to give back to investors. “Yang Delong believes that, compared with non-reduction in size, companies that repurchase are more worthy of attention. , And For companies that are not large in size or even in liquidation and liquidation, everyone must stay away from circumvention .
Yang Delong suggested that investors can focus on leading companies that benefit from economic transformation, such as consumer, brokerage and technology, and gold are all sectors that benefit from economic transformation Can pay attention, can not choose a good stock can configure the relevant industry ETF.
In addition, the international gold prices that have continued to rise recently are also a hot spot in the market. On April 14, New York COMEX gold futures rose above $ 1,780 per ounce and rose 1% on the day, the highest since October 2012. Spot gold refreshed to a new high of $ 1726.2 per ounce in seven years. The surge in the price of gold has driven the entire market’s attention to gold, whether it is gold stocks or gold ETFs, which are all popular with funds.
Yang Delong believes that in the case of global central banks’ targeted water releaseThe price of gold will inevitably rise, because the release of water means the increase in the number of banknotes, which will inevitably increase the value of gold. In the next few years, geopolitical risks, the risk of the global economy falling into recession, the spread of the epidemic, the stock market’s plunge, and the central bank’s release of water are the logic of the strength of gold prices.
“Generally speaking, each round of currency expansion will bring about a rise in the price of gold. Under the fixed mode of gold price binding, the price of gold is often after the currency is loose. A one-time upward adjustment, this time gold has now floated freely, so the price of gold will rise with the central bank’s global central bank water release curve, so gold prices will still be a better variety in the future. “Yang Delong suggested investors, Whether it is by allocating gold to game its future rising returns, or hedging the risk of the risky asset portfolio it holds, you can allocate a part of gold. Specifically, you can configure gold stocks, gold ETFs, or paper gold.