How is the Chinese labor market under the impact of the New Crown epidemic? What has happened to China’s industrial chain?

On April 15th, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University released “The Impact of the New Crown Epidemic Situation on the Labor Market, China and the Global Industry Chain-Analysis and Forecast Based on Recruiting Big Data “report.

This research report is supported by Zhihai ’s recruitment data team and supported by Zhilu ’s recruitment data team. Article + position data for research and interpretation.

The report details the situation and challenges of the Chinese labor market affected by the new crown epidemic in the first quarter of 2020. After digging the original big data of the recruitment of Zhilian, the report found that the recruitment market in the first quarter of this year showed the following characteristics:

First, the number of recruitment companies has not changed significantly, but the recruitment of positions The number and the number of people have decreased by about 27% year-on-year; second, small and micro enterprises and foreign joint ventures or wholly-owned enterprises are greatly affected by the epidemic; third, the employment of low-income groups is most affected by the epidemic; fourth, the speed of production recovery in various regions and the regional epidemic Degree, the local government ’s response speed to the epidemic is closely related; Fifth, the decline in job demand and experience requirements are in an “inverted U” relationship, and job seekers with 1-3 years of work experience are facing greater pressure; sixth, national strategic Among priority industries, the information technology industry and new energy vehicle industry are expected to be further affected by the epidemic; seventh, based on the development of the international epidemic situation and the observed recruitment recovery, it is expected that government public utilities, domestic-oriented manufacturing, business services and consumption The recruitment demand for the service industry gradually recovered in the second quarter, but export-oriented manufacturing is being affected by the global industrial chain. Demand will continue to weaken.

So, how to break through the war? The report proposes the following four countermeasures: small and micro enterprises and foreign joint ventures or wholly-owned enterprises need to receive greater and more precise policy support; provide direct subsidies for low-income unemployed groups for a period of time; At the same time, we should pay attention to job seekers with short-term full-time work experience; be alert to the risks of global industrial chain restructuring, further open the market and break trade barriers.


A glance at the job market: Is your “rice bowl” safe?

The report analyzes all recruitment advertisement data for the first quarter of 2020 (January-March) in 2020, and compares it with the same period in 2019Comparison. Under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the number of companies posting job advertisements did not decrease year-on-year, but increased slightly. However, the number of recruited jobs decreased by 27.8% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, and the number of recruited employees fell by 26.8%. Regardless of the number of job openings or the number of people recruited, under the new crown epidemic situation, they have dropped by a large proportion, namely about 27%.

The impact of the new crown epidemic on various industries is very different.


Proportion of decline in the number of jobs in various industries

Overall, all industries have been affected by the new crown epidemic in varying degrees, and the number of jobs has declined compared to 2019. However, there are obvious differences between various industries. The cultural media industry and service industry are the most affected, and the number of job offers has fallen by more than 40%. Followed by cultural and sports education, IT Internet industry, financial industry and trade wholesale and retail industry, the decline rate is 30% to 40%. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, and manufacturing industries declined by 20% to 30%, and real estate, transportation, and commercial service industries were relatively affected by the epidemic, at 10% to 20%. The least affected industries are government non-profit organizations and the energy and minerals industry. The number of jobs declined by less than 10% compared to 2019.

Secondly, enterprises of different sizes are affected differently by the new crown epidemic.

It can be clearly found that the smaller the enterprise, the greater the impact of the new crown epidemic and the greater the decline in the number of jobs. For small and micro enterprises with less than 100 employees, the number of positions has fallen by more than 30%. For companies with 100-1000 employees, the average number of posts decreased by 20% -30%. Enterprises with more than 1,000 employees are least affected by the epidemic, but the number of positions has still dropped by more than 10%.


The smaller the size of the enterprise, the greater the impact of the new crown epidemic

Third, different ownership enterprises are affected by the new crown epidemic Significantly different.

The report analyzes the size of the enterprises affected by different outbreaks affected by the epidemic. We should pay attention to foreign joint ventures and sole proprietorships, private enterprises and state-owned enterprises. Through analysis, it was found that joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned enterprises were affected by the epidemic, and the demand for the number of recruited jobs declined the most, exceeding 30%. This is followed by private enterprises, with a decline of about 26% over two years. State-owned enterprises were least affected by the epidemic, and the number of positions fell by about 20%.


Different ownership enterprises are significantly affected by the new crown epidemic situation

Fourth, different job types are affected by the new crown epidemic in varying degrees.

The five types of jobs most affected by the epidemic are: procurement and trade, advertising and convention, automobile sales, transportation and sales administrative positions, the number of jobs decreases by a proportion Both exceeded 50%. The five types of jobs that are least affected are cooking, craftsmanship, production management, banking and quality management security. Compared with the same period in 2019, the position of quality management and safety protection increased by 25%, which may be related to the sudden increase in the demand for safety protection during the epidemic.

Fifth, different salary positions are affected by the new crown epidemic to varying degrees.

The impact of the new crown epidemic on different salary positions has a very obvious trend. The lower the salary position, 20In the first quarter of 20, the number of posts decreased year-on-year, the higher the proportion. For positions with a monthly salary of less than RMB 4,000, the number of positions declined by as much as 44%. For positions with a monthly salary of more than RMB 15,000, the decline rate is only 12%. Low-income people are most affected by the new crown epidemic. Once these low-income people lose their jobs, it is even harder to find a job.

Overall, the proportion of the decline in the number of positions is in an inverted U-shaped relationship with the experience requirements. The decline in demand for positions that do not require work experience is relatively small, only down by 11%. In contrast, those with certain work experience (1-5 years) have the largest drop in demand, both exceeding 15%. For jobs with longer work experience (more than 5 years), the number of jobs declined less. Therefore, data analysis results show that college graduates are relatively less affected. In this epidemic, the most affected are those job seekers who have a small amount of work experience and are planning to change jobs recently. These job seekers are more likely to be unable to find work. Therefore, the report suggests that “naked speech” needs to be cautious.


The global epidemic situation has escalated, which has a greater impact on export-oriented manufacturing.

The report points out that exports account for a relatively high proportion and participate more in global production Industry will be more affected in this epidemic. The results of multivariate regression analysis show that the recovery rate of the industry ’s recruitment demand is significantly negatively correlated with the industry ’s export share. If the industry ’s total output output increases by 10%, then the industry will recover in 2020 relative to the 2019 Spring Festival The speed is 16.6% lower.

At the same time, the recovery rate of the industry ’s recruitment demand in the first quarter was significantly positively correlated with the industry ’s import share. This finding may be due to the fact that the epidemic in the first quarter mainly affected domestic companies. Especially in the first quarter of January-February, the epidemic has not spread widely abroad, so industries with relatively high import demand are temporarily affected less. It can be expected that in the second quarter of 2020, as foreign companies are more affected by the epidemic, industries with higher import demand may be more affected.

Among the five types of national strategic industries and medical services, the number of jobs in the digital creative industry has the highest decline, with a decline of more than 45%. In the medical service industry, due to the inclusion of industries such as beauty and health care, domestic demand was low during the epidemic and the decline rate was also the highest. The second is the information technology industry. The information technology industry belongs to an industry with more exports, so it is also more affected. In contrast, the proportion of new energy, high-end equipment and biological industries affected by the epidemic is relatively small, averaging around 20%. Based on the analysis of the WTO ’s global production chain, and the current estimates of the country ’s development prospects for the epidemic situation, corresponding prediction models were constructed for the four types of enterprises. The model shows that the recruitment needs of the other three types of companies except for export-oriented manufacturing will gradually recover in the second quarter of 2020 and exceed the recruitment needs of the same period in 2019, so the number of jobs lost in the first quarter of 2020 Will gradually recover.

The report predicts that by the end of the second quarter of 2020, the proportion of job losses in government utilities will be reduced to about 6%, while domestic-oriented manufacturing The proportion of jobs lost in business services and consumer services will be reduced to about 10%.

Export-oriented manufacturing industry, if there is no policy intervention, it is expected that the sharp decline in foreign demand due to the development of foreign epidemics will cause the recruitment of such enterprises Demand has deteriorated further.

The decline in foreign demand due to the aggravation of foreign epidemics is inevitable, so under the existing measures, the export-oriented manufacturing industry needs recruitment in the next quarter It will still decline, but the decline will be eased by a series of government initiatives. Secondly, we also need to be alert to the risks of future industrial chain restructuring. The impact of the industrial chain brought by the new crown epidemic may prompt foreign companies to adjust their suppliers in the future. As a result, even if the foreign epidemic is over, domestic product demand from foreign companies cannot be restored to the level before the epidemic.

The report also recommends that support for foreign trade companies needs to be targeted, and that there should be different support methods for different industries and enterprise sizes, so that these companies can spend too long Difficulties for several quarters. In addition, it is also important to further open the market, break down trade barriers, maintain capital flow, avoid the transfer of the industrial chain, and take precautions.