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When humans are “napping,” the new crown epidemic strikes the world. This time, we are obviously not ready, there are not enough test kits, no vaccines, no specific drugs, no effective global governance and human cooperation (in the event of the collapse of the international order).

When humans reacted, the virus also began to mutate, did not rush to kill the host, entangled in an asymptomatic manner, and used a mitigation strategy to wait for “reinforcement.” Next, it depends on whether your “reinforcement” is fast, or whether human vaccines and special drugs are fast.

From an economic point of view, humans have been racing against the “devil”. This devil includes parts of jackals, tigers, leopards, viruses, and human evil spirits, and may also include alien enemies.

Now Italians are not descendants of Romans, Siberians are not descendants of Huns, and Peruvians are not descendants of Incas. Humans can liveTo this day, there are some accidents and some inevitables-people have created religion, political science, economics, science, and national systems to counter uncertainty.

The first totem is Worship Totem. Totem worship is a religion that provides spiritual comfort to ancient ancestors to reduce fear of nature.

Fear comes from uncertainty. The first way to alleviate fear is to explain uncertainty, although some explanations are made up.

The Huaxia tribe initially worshipped the sun god. Taihao Fuxi, the first ancestor of the humanities of the Chinese nation and the head of the three emperors and five emperors, was the sun god, with dragon as the totem.

The sun god drove out the darkness, strong winds and heavy rain, and gave the ancestors a sense of security. The “Hua” of China is known as “Flower”, and the small seal looks like flowers and grass, which means dazzling and bright. “Zhou Yi Da Guo Gua” contains “withered Yang Shenghua”, and “Book of Poetry” contains “Emperor and Emperor Hua, Yu Biyuan Xi”, “Peach Zhi Yao Yao, burning its Hua”.

The real challenge that mankind poses to the uncertainty of nature is the emergence of politics.

Politics is a system of human collective action. The initial political sprouting of mankind was in the ignorant clan organization.

The famous anthropologist Louis Henry Morgan used Indians as a sample to explore the clan system and the survival of ancient humans. In 1887, he published the anthropological landmark “Ancient Society”.

In this book, Morgan said that “the development of political concepts” predates the “property concepts.” He discovered that the progressive sequence of primitive social organizations was: clan, ancestry, tribe and tribal alliance. Clan is a primitive social unit with blood line as the link, tribal alliance is the highest form of clan system. ^{[1] (“Ancient Society”, Louis Henry Morgan)}

China’s Yandi and Huangdi tribes are powerful tribal alliances. According to the records in “Liezi Huangdi”: “The Yellow Emperor and the Yan Emperor fought in the wilderness of Banquan, with handsome bears, stags, wolves, leopards, oysters, and tigers as the precursors, and eagles, eagles, eagles, and kites as flags. Also. “

This shows that the Huaxia tribe could “use their own strength to serve the beast”. Another explanation is that bears, gangs, wolves, leopards, oysters and tigers are six clans, and they are called animal totems. At that time, the task of tribal politics, in addition to leading tribal wars, was to control water, such as the Yellow Emperor’s descendant Dayu.

At this time, the tribal leader is a political strongman. They led the totem worship transition from natural power worship to reproductive worship and god worship, combining primitive religion and tribal politics into one, the purpose of which was to control the tribe with personalized supernatural power.

Liezi Huangdi also recorded: “Sacrifice herpes, female snails, Shennong’s, Xiahou’s, snake body and human face, ox head and tiger nose, which are inhuman, but have the virtue of the great holy “They all have” the virtues of the great sage “, the Yellow Emperor Xuanyuan, who invented the car, and used the dragon as a totem; the Shendi, Emperor Yan, who invented agricultural tools and the sheep as a totem.

In the patriarchal clan era, private ownership came into being and more advanced organizations were needed to defend private property. As a result, the national system based on property and territory gradually replaced the clan system.

Before the 16th century, politics was the core force for humanity to resist natural uncertainty. The state was the highest level of human collective action at the time.

“Politics” in English, French, and German all come from Greek, and the original meaning was interpreted as a castle or acropolis in Homer’s Epic. Europeans resisted foreign enemies with city-states. City-state politics included rule, management, production, and war. City-state politics during the Western Roman Empire did not include religion. By the beginning of the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire), the integration of politics and religion, the apocalyptic religion (Judaism, Christianity, Islam) completely replaced the original religion, and the secular government and religious forces fell in love and killed each other.

The Roman Empire belongs to a city-state union, not a centralized state. The Roman Empire was unable to form a conventional army and civil service system. Each city-state could only build its own armed forces and unite the soldiers and civilians to resist piracy and nomadic tribes.

Ancient China was a centralized nation-state, and a powerful secular government suppressed all forces, including religion.

Because of the fertile land, the rivers and rivers, the rich products, and the unified currency, the central government has the ability to arm a strong conventional army and civilian system to manage China, and replace the sub-enclosure with the county system. The “politics” of Chinese is different from that of Europe. Politics is a decree and governance is to educate the people.

In response to disasters, this kind of central collective government has shown strong execution and stability. The famous French sinologist Pierre-Etienne Will pointed out in his book “18th Century China’s Bureaucracy and Famine Policy” that China’s “applied bureaucracy” during the Ming and Qing Dynasties was quite efficient in controlling floods and droughts. ^{[2] (“18th Century Chinese Bureaucracy and Famine Policy”, Wei Pixin)}

At that time, the main task of the state was disaster relief. The state machine maintained a high degree of alertness. The bureaucracy and local gentry constituted a stable disaster relief system while maintaining a certain food reserve.

From the age of tribes to the age of political and religious states and nation-states, politics is the only force that counters natural uncertainty.

Political forces dominate production methods. At the time, information was asymmetric, productivity was low, payment fees were extremely high, and market transactions and the division of labor were high-risk institutional arrangements. Therefore, political forces abandoned market transactions and chose the way of agricultural planning to maintain food supply and social stability.

According to the laws of meteorological water temperature, China has worked out a set of agricultural plans based on 24 solar terms, and transformed the uncertainty of nature into a relatively certain rule, and used it. Such as Gu Yu, “Yu Sheng Bai Gu”, this solar energy and precipitation is more suitable for spring cultivation and transplanting seedlings.

Perhaps, a more scientific logic is that in order to maintain a stable food supply, a set of national machines interlinked by agricultural planning, centralized politics, and religious rule has been constructed.

After thousands of years, human ancestors survived through political power.

How to evaluate the confrontation of political forces against natural forces?

I think that humanity can continue to this day, at least illustrates the historical value of political power.

Faced with threats and fears, human ancestors chose to invest in the arms of political strongmen, religious leaders, and state machines in exchange for humble survival by sacrificing freedom.

However, this seemingly solid and powerful organizational power often collapses at the “top of Mount Tai”. The more concentrated the power, the more vulnerable the organization, and the more frequent the change of dynasties. This is an “organized disorder”.

The fundamental problem is that power politics has failed to create increasing marginal utility, allowing for even accelerating diminishing marginal utility to defeat the power system.

Political forces dominate the agricultural planned economy, which has led to a “millennium stagnation” in human productivity.

The British scholar Angus Maddison used the “international dollar” in the “Millennium History of the World Economy” to calculate that the per capita GDP of Western Europe and China before 1000 A.D. had long stayed at 450 and below. ^{[3] (“Millennium History of the World Economy”, Angus Madison)}

Farmland fertility is decreasing, leading to a decreasing law of agricultural harvest. Land is cultivated for a long time, and there is less and less food. If the population continues to multiply, famine may occur. What should I do then? Usually, farmers will choose fallow, crop rotation and pioneering methods to alleviate the food crisis.

However, these methods only expand in quantity to alleviate the “marginal decline” and fail to achieve a marginal increase in efficiency. Due to limited resources, the expansion of quantities is likely to trigger stock struggles, such as looting and annexation wars; at the same time it poses challenges to politically dominated borders.