On April 21, it was reported that Volkswagen’s board of directors approved the “acquisition of equity in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, an electric vehicle battery manufacturer.” In the future, it will become Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s largest shareholder through private placement and equity transfer.
Shortly after the news was released, Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s stock price rose all the way, directly entering the daily limit, and finally fixed at a 10.1% increase at the close.
In fact, at the beginning of the year, it was already reported that Volkswagen plans to acquire a 20% stake in Guoxuan Hi-Tech to further deepen cooperation. However, according to today ’s news, Volkswagen will acquire a 30% stake in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, with a total value of approximately US $ 740 million. With the acquisition, Volkswagen will become the largest shareholder of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and plans to become the controlling shareholder in the next three years.
Although Guoxuan Hi-Tech is not as famous as power battery manufacturers like Ningde Times and BYD, its strength is not weak. Guoxuan Hi-Tech was established in 2006 and went public in 2015. It has a number of subsidiaries, and its business scope includes automotive power batteries, energy storage, power transmission and distribution equipment, etc. It has independent research and development and manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, and research and development of new battery materials. Manufacturing, constructing charging facilities, recycling lithium batteries and other capabilities. As of 2019, it has applied for a total of 3649 patents, including 1734 invention patents; currently it can produce mainstream lithium batteries such as lithium iron phosphate batteries, nickel cobalt manganese ternary lithium batteries, etc. It is a complete ecological enterprise of power battery.
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In 2018, the installed capacity of Guoxuan Hi-Tech was 3GWh, accounting for 3.2% of the market share; in 2019, the installed capacity of Guoxuan Hi-Tech only increased slightly, at 3.2GWh, and the ranking is still in seventh place.
(data from the starting point of lithium battery)
However, with the changes in the pattern of the power battery market and the electric vehicle market, Guoxuan Hi-Tech ranked fifth in the installed capacity ranking in the first quarter of 2020, second only to Ningde Times, BYD, LG Chem and Panasonic.
(data from the first electric)
However, although Guoxuan Hi-Tech is acceptable in the total installed capacity rankings, there is a significant problem. In addition to supplying batteries for public transportation vehicles, the sales volume of passenger car companies that cooperate with it is not optimistic. As a result, its installed capacity is not very attractive. For example, in the above figure, LG Chem ’s sales of Tesla ’s domestic version have increased dramatically. LG Chem) , resulting in a substantial increase in its installed capacity.
The author speculates that this is the reason, which indirectly led to the public ’s interest in it. Because the leading companies are either due to huge supply, or because they have their own and better-selling fixed car contract, these companies In the future, the chance of being “controlled” by the public is not high, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech is ranked highest among the head companies.
In the past year, the Volkswagen Group has continuously made big moves in order to accelerate the electrification process. Last year, VW almost signed supply agreements with major battery giants (LG Chem, Samsung, SK Innovation, Northvolt, Ningde Times, etc.) , contract amount Over 50 billion Euros (Information ended September last year) ; In addition, signed a cooperation with Northvold to invest 900 million Euros to establish a new battery factory with it; not only that , Volkswagen planned to investigate in China a few years ago, preparing to build a power battery factory. This heavy acquisition of Guoxuan Hi-Tech shares, and plans to become the controlling shareholder in the future, may be the “substitute” of China’s factory construction plan.
Volkswagen’s series of “buy, buy, buy” generosity, in fact, revealed the basic requirements for becoming a car giant-financial strength.
Whether it is Tesla or a series of new cars, although its product power is used as a “blade” to open the market, all good knives need not only a strong blade, but also toughness. The blade is a comprehensive consideration of the market polygon. Although the electric vehicle market has developed rapidly in recent years, it is still a relatively small scale compared to traditional fuel vehicles. One of the important factors restricting its development is the power battery.
(picture from Gaogong Industry Research Institute)
When Musk faced “capacity hell” in 2018, he repeatedly mentioned that the important reason for limiting production capacity at that time was that the capacity of power batteries could not keep up. For power battery companies, with the increase in sales of electric vehicles, although the installed capacity has been greatly improved, the turnover and profit margins are declining; the reason behind it is that electric vehicles are competing with fuel vehicles due to battery packs. The cost ratio is too high, resulting in the market competitiveness of electric vehicles is not enough to tear the traditional fuel car market, and it can not be overwhelming advantage to promote change, so each battery manufacturer needs to invest huge R & D costs and reduce prices It ’s not a big market share.
(picture from Gaogong Industry Research Institute)
In addition, as the technical core of electric vehicles, batteries not only occupy a dominant position in terms of cost, but their technological leadership also determines the competitiveness and barriers of the final product. So in the future electric vehicle market, who can master battery technology and battery supply chain, who can take the lead.
Volkswagen, as a well-funded auto giant, obviously will not understand these reasons. Therefore, a long-term supply agreement is signed with a number of battery suppliers to ensure the production capacity of electric vehicles; cooperative research and development with different battery companies is to master and share battery R & D and production technologies, which can guarantee the right to speak in future market competition ; Investing in factories and buying Guoxuan Hi-Tech shares is to control the cost and production capacity of the production side to meet the largest Chinese market in the global auto market.
In fact, in the past few years, many people have mentioned that in the field of new energy vehicles, a few rising stars are nothing, because traditional auto companies will still guarantee their market share as long as they exert their strength. However, most people only believe that this is wishful thinking, without giving a full reason, and the recent series of operations of the Volkswagen GroupThe answer given.
As an intensive production industry, the automobile industry, no matter how its core technology changes, is limited by the current means of production and the limitations of production models. “What is needed is not just a single aspect of experience. The reason why Tesla has been gradually widely accepted in the capital market and consumer market until nearly a year is precisely because of the capital blessing and market trust, it has the capital to guarantee long-term production demand and market supply, which is recognized.
In the past year, I was not satisfied with the “slowness” of a series of traditional car companies such as Volkswagen. I feel that all the major car companies are in awe of the fear, they dare not take the risk of fully entering electrification, and do not want to pay Too much substantial effort. Judging from the recent actions of Volkswagen, at least Volkswagen has already determined the plan for full electrification and has invested a lot of resources for this, which is undoubtedly a good thing.
Even if I like the Tesla brand very much, I still admire Musk’s achievements. But as far as the car market is concerned, the car culture is a diversified and complex thing, and the balance of value should not be just “price ratio” or a single standard. The reasons for everyone ’s likes and choices should be personal. Characteristic, at the same time, the vehicle is also a manifestation of the owner’s character and life attitude. After all, no one likes to drive only a few models on the streets.
After all, as a commodity, the more “powerful players” participating in the competition, the more it can promote the rapid development of this industry. In any case, every consumer will ultimately benefit.