The shared bicycle that has been quiet for a long time seems to be reignited.

Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “zinc scale” (ID: znkedu) .

Author / Li Wenjie
  

Editor / Li Lilin
 

A few days ago, according to “LatePost” report, Didi’s Qinju Bicycle has completed over US $ 1 billion in financing led by Junlian Capital.
   

If the news is true, this number will set a new record for single financing in the shared bicycle industry. As a result, there is constant speculation about this ill-fated shared project.
   

When the shared bike track was once again surrounded by spotlights, another “brother” track, the shared motorcycle, had been dormant in the dark for a long time.
   

Compared with the high-profile fighting of shared bicycles, shared motorcycles once appeared to be particularly low-key. But when the shared bike was beaten by high-profile startups, when the founders and capital fell in love, and then ended the first half in a dramatic fashion, the story of shared bikes was slowly approaching the stage and showing two-wheeled vehicles. Different scenery on the track.
   

Do you embark on a new journey or repeat the same mistakes?
  

Late opportunities strong>
   

Mid-February 2017 was a highlight moment for bike sharing. Mobike has just announced that it has obtained new financing after the D round. Xiaolan bicycle held a press conference in Beijing and announced that it will receive another 400 million yuan in financing. Ofo has become the most valuable unicorn company in the industry with the new financing.
   

Few people know that it was during the same period that 50 shared electric bicycles named “Xiaomi Public Electric Bicycles” quietlyAppeared on the streets of Haidian District, Beijing.
   

However, two days later, the head of the “Xiaomi” electric vehicle company was interviewed by the Haidian District Traffic Detachment, requesting that it must take back all the electric vehicles that have been put in before February 17, otherwise it will be removed by the traffic control department .
   

The difference between a word and a shared bike and shared bike is different.
   

In fact, these two tracks are almost the product of the same period. From the perspective of the process of shared bicycles gradually replacing ordinary bicycles, the business logic of shared motorcycles is also similar. Business model.
   

From the perspective of market demand, in this big country with two rounds of travel, about 500 million people use the two rounds of travel to solve daily travel of 0-10 kilometers, and shared bicycles only solve travel within 1-2 kilometers. Demand, the greater industry opportunity is the two-wheeled transportation motorcycle.
  

In addition to C-end users, there are also B-end markets such as tens of millions of takeaways, express delivery personnel, and so on. The entire market is China’s existing stock of 350 million motorcycles and an increment of approximately 40 million battery vehicles per year.
   

A series of data intuitively proves that shared motorcycles are a good business, but when shared bicycles have already taken a leap forward, the policy of “tightening the curse” has caused the legs of shared motorcycles to “hang”.
   

An important background behind this is that in 2017, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou successively issued documents stating that they will not “temporarily develop” or “not encourage development” for shared motorcycles. Moreover, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Xi’an and other cities directly stop sharing motorcycles.
   

So, when shared bikes ran all the way, shared bikes lingered on the edge of policy for a long time.
   

The opportunity did not arrive until 2019.
   

At that time, the policy made a cut-the “Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycle Safety” that began in April 2019. The new national standard proposes a number of standardized provisions for electric vehicles, eliminating a large number of unqualified enterprises and originally occupying the market Nearly 90% of the over-standard electric vehicles, more than 90% of the electric vehicles will be classified as electric motorcycles, which need to be managed according to motor vehicles.
   

Therefore, the regular electric bicycle market has a large number of user needs, and the long-shared shared motorcycles have naturally ushered in the good.
   

The other side,The shared bicycles that have been dragged forward by capital all the time began to expose problems in 2018, and rumors of misappropriation of deposits and broken capital chains are very popular. Soon, the industry giant Mobike was acquired by Meituan, the small yellow car was in a desperate deposit, the Hello bicycles from the third and fourth lines were acquired by Ali, and the small blue bicycles were acquired by Didi.
   

So, many electric vehicle sharing companies believe that the disadvantage of sharing bicycles is their opportunity.
   

“It was a little too early to make electric vehicles. Now that the industry is standardized and motorcycles are up, the entry should be just right.” Qiu Yiwu, the founder of Hangzhou Yunzao Technology, a former motorcycle supplier of ofo, also said.
  

“Rural surrounding cities” < / strong>
   

In the spring of 2018, Chen Li, who was on a business trip from Beijing to Wudi County, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, discovered that The little-known county seats have many shared motorcycles with uniform colors along the street.
   

“Compared with bicycles, motorcycles are indeed more convenient and labor-saving, and the price is also acceptable.” Chen Pei observed that the usage rate of shared motorcycles in the local area is not bad. “Local people usually use battery cars as usual. Or motorcycle. “
   

This is just a microcosm, and capital responds extremely quickly to opportunities.
   

With the changes in policy and wind direction, a variety of shared electric vehicles such as Bee Motorcycle, Motorcycle No. 7, Xiaozheng Shared Motorcycle, and People’s Travel began to appear in all streets and alleys.
  

Small walk shared motorcycle
 

But the giant has already started layout, just waiting for this “dongfeng”.
   

As early as January 2018, Didi ChuxingIntroduced the “Street Rabbit Motorcycle”. In the following 9 to 10 months, Mobike, which was acquired by Meituan, launched a shared moped. Hello mopeds were launched in many cities across the country. Ofo also completed a number of Patent application for bicycles.
   

Among them, Hello Motorcycles admitted in early 2019 that the electric vehicle business has achieved profitability.
   

“In China, the demand for the two-wheel market has existed for a long time and maintains high traffic. When the bicycle market gradually becomes a game for capital giants, capital will be more cautious, and motorcycles have become a new battlefield.” From the bicycle sharing industry to Zhang Ruichi of the motorcycle industry told Zinc Scale that the consensus in the industry is that compared with shared bicycles, motorcycles are more likely to achieve profitability within a certain period of time than bicycles. “After all, the distance and radius of motorcycles will be farther. “
   

Li Chao (pseudonym) who joined the shared motorcycle brand in 2018 just caught up with this opportunity, “At that time, I invested in 50 shared electric vehicles, which were mainly placed on the university campus. The two-day return far exceeded expectations, and later I tried it at Shanghai Jiaotong University, and the return was relatively stable. “
   

“But the best market is still sinking, especially in prefecture-level counties where public transportation is not yet perfect. It is far better than first-tier cities. Unlike shared bicycles, motorcycles have to take the rural route to surround the city.” Li Chao found through market research that the current attitude of first- and second-tier cities towards shared motorcycles is generally unfriendly, but third- and fourth-tier cities are more open and demand is greater.
   

More importantly, the development of small cities has gradually penetrated into large cities, avoiding the early competition between companies and giants, and the low-key dormant slowly advanced.
   

“A simple calculation shows that this market should not be underestimated. There are more than 2,700 counties in China, plus about 260 prefecture-level cities. In China’s third and fourth tier cities, there are hundreds of millions of people with shared motorcycles. Residents. “Li Chao said that he will also put more motorcycles into the county.
   

Facts have also verified the correctness of this plan—Hello, Mango, Bee and other shared electric vehicles have now entered the third and fourth tier cities, and some regions have actively introduced them for the government.
  

Repeat “share bicycle” The mistake?
   

Right now, the big bike-sharing scene is like a battle between warlordsThe “Rainbow Wars” evolved into the “Three Kingdoms Killing” for Haro Bikes, Green Orange Bikes, and Meituan Bikes.
   

Although people are looking forward to the “Brother Raceway” shared motorcycle report, the reality is that the players who are entering the stadium are still running horses and fencing.
   

“Actually, everyone will still worry about shared motorcycles, just like the shared bicycles of the year, but it looks beautiful, and finally ends in drama.” Zhang Ruichi admitted frankly, “After all, the business logic is similar. Once you enter the vicious competition of blindly burning money, there is no If the order develops, it is easy to repeat the same mistakes. “
   

But at present, Zhang Ruichi ’s concerns have been dispelled. “After experiencing the painful struggle of shared bicycles, capital and the industry are now more rational and cautious, at least not as crazy as the early days of shared bicycles. The threshold for shared motorcycles is Shared bikes are higher, so entrepreneurs are calmer. With policy control, the current development of the industry is low-key and orderly. “
   

Li Kaizuo, co-founder of Hello Travel, also said in an interview, “The industry is relatively late in cycling, and it is basically an incremental market. Many players come in mainly to expand the market, and the pattern will not change in the short term. Zero-sum game. “
   

It is worth noting that after the capital becomes rational, the reduction in financing means that the development of the shared motorcycle industry depends more on the company’s own operation management and technical level.
   

So, it ’s more difficult to get around in the industry than to repeat the same mistakes.
   

The biggest “blocker” is the problem of power replacement.
   

Initially, many shared electric bicycles use a pile-type charging station model, which requires users to return the car at a fixed point. Later, most shared electric bicycles are replaced by manual means to replace the batteries. If the operator does not arrange it, the vehicle is normal. Operation will be affected.
   

The piled mode will reduce the labor cost, but will increase the site cost; the pileless mode has no site cost, but will increase the operation and battery costs.
   

Hello Travel backed by capital has tried to build a richer second-round ecology through the layout of “shared power exchange”. However, after entering 2020, it is constantly optimizing personnel, and sharing power exchanges is a severe disaster area.
  

Electric vehicle charging pile
 

“Power replacement is indeed a problem. We recruited a part of full-time power maintenance personnel for this, but more of them are part-time jobs.” Li Chao told Zinc Scale, compared with cycling, The battery maintenance cost and operating cost of motorcycles have greatly increased, so its heavy asset model is difficult to lighten.
   

Zhao Feng, a partner of Xiangfeng Investment and Mobike ’s early investor, once said frankly, “The operating cost of a motorcycle is much higher than that of a bicycle. Maintenance, power replacement, and operation are very complicated, and the destructiveness is much higher Bicycle. “
   

The data is more intuitive. The cost of shared electric vehicles is not on the same order of magnitude as shared bicycles. Ofo’s early bicycles cost 200-300 yuan, and Mobike is about 1,500 yuan. The cost of renting an electric car for Bajie is 3,060 yuan, and the cost of an electric bike for a hunting bar is about 2,000 yuan.
   

“If the utilization rate cannot be increased, the more shared electric vehicles are put in, the greater the risk for the enterprise, the problem of broken capital chains and how to deal with the shared electric vehicles will be easy to follow.” Zhang Ruichi told Zinc Scale. Under the constraints of cost, although the profit margin of shared motorcycles is greater, it greatly depends on the frequency of use and the scale of delivery.
   

It is undeniable that this is a more difficult battle.
   

There are still various practical factors that constrain the development of shared motorcycles. From the profit model, to policy changes, to user adaptation, this industry is being tested. From the production end to the operation end, every link may make the next ofo appear.
   

Even so, with a promising market prospect, no one is willing to give up the bigger cake.
   

Zhang Ruichi and Li Chao are still looking forward to the future. As Yang Lei, CEO of Harrow Travel, said, “If it is a business with real needs and users have such a large industry, can it do it well?”