This article comes from: CBNData consumer station, the first picture comes from: “Youth has you”
On April 17, the idol group UNINE, who successfully debuted through the talent variety “Youth has You”, boarded “Decent Men’suno Young!” 》 The cover of the May magazine. As a special issue for the first anniversary of the formation, this edition of the magazine released nine pre-sale links to the magazines with nine members of UNINE as their covers, priced at 20 yuan per copy.
As of 17:00 on April 21, the magazine sold 11,190 copies, with sales of just over 220,000. The sales result, which barely exceeded 10,000, was evaluated as “one year after debut, and the return is still an amateur.”
In sharp contrast, Cai Xukun, who achieved more than one million sales by one person. His Bazaar Men ’s May issue sold 55,000 copies in five hours, with sales exceeding 1.1 million. This year’s “Youth with You 2” is still hot, but the development of UNINE’s debut group last year was not satisfactory, and people can’t help but wonder how important it is for the talent show to “make a group” debut.
Over the past two years, the variety show (hereinafter referred to as show variety) has been happy to output idol groups under the name of “grouping”. The boys and girls on the show were sweating and weeping for “grouping”, and fans were able to contribute to pick trainees. But the idol group who finally made their debut fell into the curse of “Debut is the peak” time and time again. Is the national fanatical “group” really valuable?
In those years, they were keen on the “talented” talent variety
The fierceness of “Show Comprehensive” is a phenomenon that has only appeared in the past two years. In 2018, imitated Korean idolsOnce the group debut selection program “PRODUCE 101” series of “Idol Trainees” was broadcast, it ignited the domestic idol market’s long-term inability to “out the circle”.
Unlike the national drafts represented by “Super Girls” and “Good Voices of China”, “Idol Trainee” moved to the subdivision track of the idol draft. This program recommended the selection of 100 trainees from 87 brokerage companies and trainee companies at home and abroad, and conducted closed training and recording in four months. Finally, 9 winners were selected by the people to form a new idol boy group debut. This combination is NINE PERCENT.
The new draft mode makes “Idol Trainee” enjoy unprecedented popularity. One hour after the program started, the broadcast volume exceeded 100 million, and 18 Weibo hot keywords were scored that night. After the first season of the program, the cumulative number of broadcasts reached 3.63 billion, and the number of microblog topics with the same name read more than 15.7 billion. Afterwards, “Creation 101”, which chose to build a female group, upgraded this popularity, with nearly 5 billion views and 15.8 billion topic views readings defining 2018 as the “first year of idols” in China.
So, in addition to the second season of 2019, which was renamed “Youth with You” and “Creative Camp 2019”, the screen also added “In the name of the group”, the main group draft, and the men’s team and the girl group. Various talents including “Next Legend”. The increase in the number of programs has caused an explosion of idols, and it has also subtly changed the birth mechanism of domestic idol groups.
Before debuting through the talent show, the mainstream domestic idol market still focuses on copying the Japanese and Korean idol models. According to Yi En ’s incomplete statistics, from 2007 to 2017, a total of about 130 men and women groups officially debuted in the Chinese idol group market, and these idol groups are basically born out of the Japanese and Korean model, that is, after professional training Brokerage companies make their debut.
Photo Source: Yi En, “Iterative Research Report on China ’s Idol Industry”
Men launched in 2015Take the group UNIQ as an example. Five members are selected from the candidates of China and South Korea by Lehua Entertainment. After receiving 4 years of training in RAP, vocal music, dance, creation, body shaping, etc. An idol group created under the Korean pipeline model.
However, with the “show comprehensive” bursting with idol group debut as the ultimate appeal, this traditional model has also been rewritten. Most of the newly-launched idol groups on the market today are named after the combination of “Show Comprehensive” bonus (hereinafter referred to as “Show Comprehensive Group”) .
According to CBNData star statistics, of the 18 idol groups that debuted in the past two years, 10 of them were directly generated by “Show Comprehensive”, and 6 groups are derived from “Show Comprehensive” (Temporary combination of contestants with the same company reorganization or high voice among fans) .
This reality, on the one hand, shows the cautiousness of domestic brokerage companies in pushing idol portfolios, on the other hand, it also indicates that domestic idol group production has embarked on a new path: as a complementary form in the mature idol market in Japan and South Korea The emergence of “show show” has become the mainstream of the Chinese idol market.
Behind the prosperity of the “show show group” is the market’s expectation that the variety show’s popularity will shift to idol groups, and it has once let capital find a new point of force in the domestic idol market. In 2018, many companies such as Jiashang Media, Kunyin Entertainment, and Wow Wow Entertainment received financing, and the first echelon of the industry, Lehua Entertainment, once tried to impact the IPO.
After the variety show, the commercial value of the idol group is no match for individuals
But after the tuyere, the “show show” did not hand in a satisfactory transcript. The number and quality of group endorsements are weaker than the individual endorsements of members; fansThe enthusiasm of the “show show group” has been declining year by year; in the idol derivative market, fans are still only willing to pay for individuals rather than groups. The signs of the idol group after the group has not shown the commercial value that matches the variety show popularity Many members after their debuts were obviously in the chase position.
According to the CBNdata star statistics, the endorsement and promotion of the 6 “Show Syndicate” debuted in the past two years, NINE PERCENT and Rocket Girl 101 debuted in 2018 have 10 and 7 group endorsements (hereinafter referred to as” Team Generation “) .
It should be pointed out that this is the best performance that Chinese idol groups can show, but in the face of Korean idol groups debuting in the same way, this result is somewhat dwarfed.
According to incomplete star statistics, Wanna One, the Korean men ’s idol group that debuted in the second season of Mnet “PRODUCE 101”, has more than 20 group generations, and the cosmetics brand that once made endorsements has sales of over 20.93 million a day.
Among the four groups that debuted in 2019, the value of idol groups is even more disadvantaged.
First of all, in terms of the number of group generations, although the R1SE produced by “Creation Camp 2019” has 10 brand merchants, there is only one complete group generation, and the other nine items are in the form of 2 or 3 teams appear. In addition, the number of BlackACE group generations debuted in The Name of Group is 2, one of the group generations is still a member brokerage company ’s own product, and the new storm is even 0.
Secondly, in the group endorsement category, taking R1SE and UNINE, which debuted in the same period, as an example, fast-moving consumer products such as food, beverage, beauty and personal care are the main endorsement categories. This is related to the limited period of “Show Comprehensive Group”. For example, the limited period of R1SE is 2 years, while the limited period of UNINE is 18 months. Whether it is for a brand or a “show comprehensive group” that has no long-term development intention, FMCG productsIt can be said that it is the most cost-effective category.
Finally, compared with the spokesperson ’s title, the brand promotion ambassador is also an important part of the R1SE group generation compared to the spokesperson with higher gold content; although UNINE is all spokesperson, there are only 4 group representatives The quantity is not so convincing.
It is not difficult to see that both the quantity and quality of the team resources of the “Show Comprehensive Group” are clearly showing a downward trend year by year. In sharp contrast to this, the individual endorsements of group members are in full bloom.
Still taking R1SE and UNINE as examples, although the category is still focused on beauty, personal care and food and beverage, the number of personal endorsements of members far exceeds the number of teams. 10 brands. Moreover, Zhou Zhennan won the title of the spokesperson for 6 brands, and the quality of resources is obviously better than that of the group.
Individuals are more popular than groups, and they are also reflected in the consumer influence of both. According to the CBNData star 2018 ~ 2019 draft star consumer influence list, Rocket Girl and NINEPERCENT are the only two groups on the list, which are located in the list of 16 and 19 respectively, of which 7 members of the NINE PERCENT combination occupy the list. The top 10; while R1SE and UNINE are not on the list, only Zhou Zhennan and Li Wenhan won 10th and 12th respectively.
In addition to commercial resources, the idol group ’s performance in the derivatives market is not as impressive. According to the “2019 Idol Industry and Fan Economy White Paper” released by owhat earlier this year, the idol industry market size will reach 100 billion yuan in 2020, and the idol derivative market size is expected to reach 5 billion to 10 billion yuan. However, in the hundreds of billions of scales, the space belonging to idol groups, especially the “Show Comprehensive Group” is very limited.
In the white paper, the 2018-2019 idol fan peripheral consumption rankings show that the top 5 idol groups are EXO, GOT7, BTS, NCT, NCT127, all of which are Korean men ’s groups, while China ’s “Show Comprehensive Group” “No one on the list, but the individual performance of the group is outstanding, Cai Xukun, Huang Minghao, Zhu Zhengting, Lin Yanjun in the NINE PERCENT occupy the top ten.
For this, Tianyin Tainn, an observer of the star chase phenomenon, bluntly stated that such statistics just show that there is no so-called “group fan” in the domestic idol market. (Fans who love the whole group) . Relying on the immature idol market in China is a helpless but inevitable result.
On the one hand, China lacks the stage and display opportunities most needed by idols. On the other hand, most companies do not have the ability to operate idol groups. “Broker companies can only prioritize resources to individuals. This mode of operation It also cultivates the habit that fans are more willing to spend for members than individuals. ”
One Cai Xukun is equal to 3 UNINEs, idols are just a “carnival” of variety
Whether it is from the Shang Dynasty resources or the consumption around fans, the “Show Comprehensive Group” shows the characteristics of “individual prosperity and group decline” without exception. In the field of music consumption, which is the most convincing work of idols, the situation of idol groups is even more awkward.
According to the statistics of various music platforms, except for the data of Xiami Music and Migu Music, Cai Xukun ’s album “YOUNG” released on July 26, 2019 exceeded 66 million, while the sales of his two albums released by NINE PERCENT At 26 million, the difference of nearly 40 million means a huge value gap between idol groups and idol individuals.
Even though the Rocket Maiden 101, which seems to have the best development momentum at present, although the total sales of the two albums ranks first in the “Show Comprehensive Group”, it is still not as good as Cai Xukun. Rounded up, one Cai Xukun is about 1.5 rocket girls, 2 R1SE, and 3 UNINE.
The trainees have poured into the talent competition for talents, but the reality is that there has not been a truly valuable idol group in China.
Chen Haitian, a partner of Chenhai Capital, once revealed that, in general, the output value of each top flow idol is about 300 million to 500 million, and the output of the idol group has reached a scale of several hundred million. For example, SMAP generated approximately RMB 1.456 billion in revenue in 2015, and BTS brought RMB 826 million in revenue for the company in 2018. The “Show Show Group” is more like a short “carnival” created by variety shows. After harvesting the show, the idol group has become a “fast production and fast consumption” product.
But Tianyin Tainn emphasized that this “fast production and fast consumption” model has also fallen into a bottleneck. “I learned from a brand that they spent 5 million last year to sign an idol artist from the draft, but the result is a product 800 more sold. “FansThe purchase behavior of idol endorsements tends to be rationalized, which will further weaken the dividends that variety shows bring to the “show show group”.
In fact, there have been some signs of the capital market that has moved. The termination of the contract between Kun Yin Entertainment, a star company valued at 300 million yuan, and artist Bu Fan has recently been linked to the hot search. At the end of 2019, the well-known brokerage company Shanghai Zhong cherry declared bankruptcy; Mai Rui Entertainment once broke down.
But it is too early to judge the ebb of the idol. The hot show variety show “Youth has You 2” started the first shot of the women’s team battle in 2020. In the first week of the show, 39 Weibo searches were received, and the popularity of the search exceeded 120 million. More than half of the program is broadcast, and it can still become the center of social network discussion every week. “Yellow long dress and fluffy hair” once created a craze for people to play.
The popularity of variety shows does not decrease, which also means that the “show show group” will remain in the domestic idol market for a long time. But it is pessimistic that this does not seem to be because the value of the idol group is fully released through the draft variety. According to Tianyin Tainn, the reason behind is somewhat helpless, “This is already the most important way for domestic idol groups to get out of the circle.”
Tianyin Tainn believes that their appearance is actually a trial and error of the Chinese idol market. In the short term, they have created a certain value, but Tianyin Tainn also expressed a deeper level Worry. “From the idol level, China’s trainee reserves are very low. The talent variety in the past few years has consumed the trainee resources accumulated in previous years. From the fan level, the loyalty of show fans is also relatively high. Low, they from a variety show to another variety, it is difficult to transform into a loyal fan of the idol group. “
In the idol market that is booming and declining, in addition to “Youth Have You 2”, two other “Show Comprehensive” “Creation Camp 2020” and “The Name of the Youth” have also released Reuters photos and announced their official participation In the war, the domestic idol market ushered in the most prosperous stage of the year.
This year’s three “show show” will also produce three new idol groups. Can they really step out of variety and rewrite the value of idol groups into groups?
This article comes from: CBNData Consumer Station