Due to factors such as weak consumption, domestic pork wholesale prices have fallen for 10 consecutive weeks since mid-February. What about the subsequent pork price trend? Experts in the industry believe that pork prices are generally on the decline, but the return to normal cost-benefit status depends on the restoration of hog farming production capacity, which is expected to be in the first half of 2021.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have shown that the prices of live pigs and pork have declined continuously throughout the country. As of the 4th week of April, pork prices on the bazaar have fallen from 52.11 yuan per kilogram to 59.64 yuan per kilogram at the peak of the 3rd week of February, a cumulative decrease of 12.6%. At the same time, the price of live pigs also fell from 37.51 yuan per kilogram to 33.73 yuan, a cumulative decrease of 11.2%.
Hu Glacier, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Peng Pai journalists that pork wholesale prices have fallen for 10 consecutive weeks, mainly reflecting a reasonable return of the market. Under the current conditions, first, the production capacity of hog breeding is gradually recovering, and imported frozen meat is growing rapidly; second, the new crown epidemic has a strong inhibitory effect on pork consumption. Comparing the two factors of supply and demand, the current price decline more reflects the decline in residents’ pork consumption.
Zhu Zengyong, associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences also said that despite the overall tight supply, the main influencing factors of the current pork supply and demand situation have shifted from the supply of live pigs Pork consumption demand. The production cycle of live pigs is long, and the current supply of commercial pigs is difficult to increase or decrease rapidly in the short term, but the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has an impact on pork consumption, especially catering, group consumption, and processing consumption. Pork consumption declined significantly in February and began to recover slowly in March. The current pork consumption demand is still not strong.
In terms of hog production capacity, since October last year, the number of capable sows has resumed growth for six consecutive months. At the end of the first quarter of this year, compared with the end of last year, the national pig population increased by more than 10 million heads, an increase of 3.5%, and the number of capable sows increased by more than 3 million heads, an increase of 9.8%.
Zhu Zengyong mentioned that for integrated enterprises, group enterprises and large-scale breeding entities, the live pigs and capable sows are growing faster, and the supply of newborn piglets will be increased in the first half of the year. It will continue to increase, driving the recovery of the country’s live pig inventory, and the supply of commodity pigs will increase effectively in the third quarter. But he also reminded, “Although the current enthusiasm for replenishment and expansion of production is relatively high, improving the level of biological safety to prevent and control African swine fever is still a problem that the main body of breeding needs to attach great importance to, so as to improve the effect of supplementary production.” br>
In addition, the Central ReserveThe continuous supply of frozen pork and the growth of imported pork also ensured the supply of pork market. Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese Merchants Reserve Commodity Management Center has put in 17 batches of centrally-stored frozen pork, with a cumulative amount of 330,000 tons. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 951,000 tons of pork in the first quarter, an increase of 1.7 times.
For the future trend of pork prices, Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said on April 21 that the domestic second quarter may be the most difficult period for this round of pig cycle, pork Supply and demand are also facing three overlapping pressures such as a low production base, increased import uncertainty and a rebound in consumption. It is expected that after July, market supply will gradually improve. However, due to the number of festivals in the second half of the year, if the consumption driving force becomes stronger, peak pork prices may occur around September.
Zhu Zengyong believes that the supply and demand situation will remain relatively balanced in the second quarter, and the price trend of live pigs under the supply and demand balance will be mainly seasonal fluctuations. With the increase in consumption of government agencies and groups, the price of pigs is expected to stop falling. Both the supply of live pigs and the consumption demand of pork will recover in the third quarter. The price of pigs is expected to rebound seasonally. The supply of commodity pigs will increase further in the fourth quarter.
“As the supply and demand forces change, pork prices will fluctuate in stages, but high prices that peak again are unlikely.” According to Hu Glacier, Although the negative impact of the African swine fever epidemic has not yet been completely eliminated, the Chinese pig breeding industry has passed the “darkest moment” and embarked on the road of recovery.
It is worth mentioning that, according to the pork market in the past, as the pork consumption increases during the May Day holiday, its price will increase. Will pork prices rebound on May 1st this year? Hu Glacier believes that the seasonal factors brought about by the festival still exist, but it will not be a strong upward pulling factor, “even if the pork price rebounds, it will be small.”
Zhu Zengyong also said that although the pork demand for May 1st holiday leave this year has been boosted to a certain extent, the population mobility and flow volume are far from the normal level, and pork consumption The boost is limited. Pork consumption demand in some regions has boosted or driven local pork prices to rise. When nationwide, the boost is limited and the price of pigs remains weak and volatile.