The pessimist is correct, the optimist succeeds
Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account ) , author: God people were excited.
1/4 Buffett beyond the investment circle
Although Buffett is known as the “shareholder”, the annual shareholders meeting also becomesAs a “pilgrimage” for global investors, Buffett’s thinking has already surpassed the investment itself, and has become a comprehensive consideration of the company’s value.
As a master of value investment, Buffett ’s philosophy was summarized by the investment community as “long-term holding to beat the market with compound interest” , But most people are not aware of the origin of this concept.
Unlike mutual funds and hedge funds, Buffett ’s Berkshire Hathaway ’s investment performance comes from the financial profit of the invested company (before the adjustment of the US accounting standards in 2018), not the rise and fall of the stock price. This allows Buffett to go beyond the stock price and think more about the company’s operations and strategy.
Buffett ’s perspective on the value of the company is between financial investment and strategic investment-more focused on corporate strategy rather than stock price growth than general financial investors, and more focused on operating profit than general strategic investors. Strategic coordination with the parent company.
A person who does n’t care about the stock price rises and falls instead gets the most profit from the stock market.
Buffett has not published a book. His speech at the annual shareholder meeting is the main material for studying his ideas. Therefore, every year the shareholder meeting will go beyond the investment circle and become a public topic-non-stock trading People can also learn a lot from it.
This article lists three topics that are equally meaningful to non-shareholders from Buffett’s speech at the 2020 general meeting of shareholders.
2/4 Courage to correct mistakes
The first focus of this general meeting is Buffett ’s aviation stocks Investment failed.
Buffett added 1 million shares of Delta Air Lines at $ 46 at the end of February this year. Prior to this, Buffett held 70 million shares of Delta Air Lines for a long time, and Southwest Airlines.
After US stocks peaked on February 19,By the end of February, it had fallen by 15%. According to normal thinking (that is, regardless of the severity of the epidemic), there is indeed investment value here.
However, this outbreak cannot be incorporated into normal thinking. In fact, most investors in developed countries in Europe and the United States have underestimated the impact of the epidemic and overestimated their own prevention and control capabilities, and Buffett is no exception. At that time, the outbreak in Italy had already exploded, and news of the nursing homes in the United States continued to be infected. Buffett still bought the shares of the airlines most affected by the outbreak.
Following is the paragraph of Buffett’s “Living for a Long Time” ——
March 8th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I only saw one U.S. stock blow.
March 9th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old and I have only seen two U.S. stocks melt.
March 12, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I have only seen three US stocks blow.
March 16th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I have only seen four US stock market meltdowns.
When Delta Air Lines was at its lowest, the purchase price from Buffett fell another 60%.
However, Buffett ’s investment philosophy has always been “I only look at the long-term value of the company, and do not care about short-term stock price fluctuations.” Many of his classic investment cases have also fallen by 30% in one or two years, and then slowly increased Several times, fully embodies the charm of “compound interest”.
Out of trust in the stock god, most people believe that Buffett ’s investment is still just a continuation of the previous model, Buffett will still hold firmly, and even buy more and more.
But on April 4, shocking news came out that public information showed that Buffett had suddenly sold 13 million shares of Delta Air Lines. There was a lot of speculation at the time, and one of the views was that Buffett had to reduce its shareholding to less than 10%, so that no more public information was needed. This interpretation essentially reflects everyone’s belief in Buffett’s “no short-term trading.”
The answer was finally revealed at this general meeting. Buffett admitted that he had sold all the aviation stocks he held. That is to say, since the first reduction in early April, Buffett has been “selling and selling.”
Although Buffett ’s performance has sometimes fallen short of the average in recent decades, it ’s just a difference in investment style, but this time, Buffett has indeed made a mistake.
At the shareholders ’meeting, Buffett explained that when he made the buying decision, he considered the aviation stocks at that time.The dividend situation, he believes that the operation of these airlines is still good, so this is a price with investment value. But in April, after the government warned everyone not to travel, everything changed.
Buffett realized that the impact of the epidemic on the aviation industry may be long-term, and many people may significantly reduce the frequency of air travel in the next two or three years, resulting in an excess of airlines ’existing aircraft and the aviation industry ’s debt The rate is very high. If the business cannot be restored to most of the previous levels, many companies may even go bankrupt.
Warren Buffett explained that he would not lose trust in a company ’s stock price because it fell by 30% or 40%, but the future of the aviation industry has suddenly become ambiguous. At that time, I would rather sell it first.
This is really a great place for Buffett. The idea of mature investors is continuous. Most people find that they may have made a mistake, but they are not sure whether it is a mistake. The most typical reaction is often “Deny the error”, they will think-
“This has happened before, isn’t it all okay later …”
“To believe in yourself, now is the time to test whether a person ’s will is firm …”
After realizing that they are really likely to make mistakes, another typical reaction is “delay.” Especially public figures will worry that admitting mistakes is already a blow to their “always correct” image. If after acknowledgment, it is found that this is not a mistake, then there is another public impression of “unwillingness”, and it is “face-slapping”.
In addition, the results of investment often take a long time to appear. Most people choose to insist that they are right, so many public figures can easily drag small mistakes into big mistakes,
This also shows that Buffett’s “self-slap” is not easy. From the perspective of maintaining the public image, Buffett can sell slowly, dragging on for a year or two, and wait until everyone gradually forgets and then clears.
This is not the first time Buffett ’s “self-slap” has previously claimed that he will not invest in technology companies such as Apple, but now Apple has become his first position.
He also had the experience of “slapping his face to the left and right”. He said before that he couldn’t understand technology companies like IBM, but then he “understood” when IBM’s stock price was high. I still ca n’t understand it, so I have to clear all of them,
Dare to face yourself is the real self-confidence. It is easy for public figures to “add play” to themselves. In fact, there are so many people who pay attention to your every move.
For me personally, Buffett ’s biggest impact to me this time was that he only doubted the prospects of the aviation industry and sold all the stocks he had held for many years at a time. I really ca n’t do this. When I ’m not particularly sure, I usually sell part by part. Sometimes I hope to wait for a relatively high price to sell, and I wo n’t sell it after a big drop, but this response In essence, she is still lucky about her mistakes.
Buffett ’s handling of airline stocks reflects his caution. But on the whole, Buffett is still a very optimistic person. He is still as bullish on the US economy as he always is in the shareholders’ meeting and believes that now is a good time to buy stocks.
This is the second core theme at Buffett’s shareholders meeting. How did he grasp the balance between “optimism for the future” and “cautiousness in investment”?
This question is also meaningful to ordinary people who do not trade stocks.
3/4 People are correct, optimists succeed
At a shareholders meeting, a Canadian investor asked a very sharp The problem is to say: Mr. Buffett, you claim that you are short in the United States, and you said that it is a good time to buy stocks, but you sold it in April, and now you have 400 billion in cash on your account. Isn’t it fooling us to “take over for the country”, right?
For this “conspiracy theory” with typical retail thinking, Buffett explained this way:
His so-called “now is the best time to buy”, the premise is long-term optimism, and should be prepared for two aspects: one is financial, because the worst must be prevented in the short term Second, psychologically, everyone suffers from different levels of loss, and this must be considered when buying.
Buffett compares this year ’s crisis with the 2008 financial crisis and believes that 2008 was when the train deviated from the track, and this year it was our initiative to temporarily stop the train.
It sounds like Buffett is more optimistic about the outcome of the crisis this time; but for the actual response, Buffett is more cautious this time.
At the time of the worst financial crisis in 2008, Buffett had begun to buy in bulk, and US stocks bottomed out half a year later; and this time, Berkshire still retains a lot of cash and is still preventing the worst. occur.
The reason is that although the crisis in 2008 is serious, it is a classic crisis, and there are classic answers. There is no precedent for this crisis. Although it is still optimistic, the short-term uncertainty is also more Strong.
Therefore, during the 2008 crisis, Buffett increased its holdings in utility companies and industrial companies (the investment in BYD was started at that time), a large number of lightening positions in consumer companies and the financial industry; and this year, Buffett is reducing aviation holdings. At the same time as the industry, financial and consumer companies are still retained. This is an active response to the two different problems of “train off track” and “train suspension”-the last problem was excessive consumption and excessive debt, this time the problem is a change in lifestyle.
So optimistic attitudes and cautious responses vary from time to time and from situation to situation.
These explanations by Buffett are very familiar to us, “The future is bright, the road is tortuous”, it is a balance between long-term strategy and short-term strategy:
Not only investment, but most things are “pessimists often correct, optimists succeed eventually.”
“Pessimists are often correct”, which is very common in real life. When you want to do something that is not very common, there are always good people who list a bunch of risks and advise you to be careful. In fact, the less people do, the lower the success rate, so pessimists are often correct, but the price is-pure pessimists always pass the life indifferently.
From the perspective of communication, a pessimistic view of the future is often more eye-catching and gives people the feeling that “the world is drunk and I wake up alone”. They seem correct, but in fact, these tragedy arguments often correspond to the “inertia” in our hearts -do n’t jump jobs, do n’t start a business, do n’t invest, do n’t buy a house, do n’t get married, do n’t get divorced, do n’t be second Fetal …, in short, don’t change anything, because everything may be wrong.
So, “the optimist eventually succeeds” does not mean that optimism can succeed, but that you must have a long-term optimistic attitude towards the future, and you are willing to actively respond to short-term fluctuations.
4/4 Find a job that can do old work
This shareholders meeting created two firsts, the first use Live broadcast, Buffett used PPT for the first time.
The latter may be a bit surprising to everyone, but if you consider that Buffett was born in 1930 and is already 90 years old, you may think of another problem:
It ’s not easy for ordinary people to live to this age. It is also necessary to carry out such complicated thinking, express their deep thoughts in very concise language, and have quick thinking. All the questions are answered in a fluent way, I have to say that it is a miracle.
A few years ago, precisely because of Buffett and his investment partner Munger, who was 6 years older than me, I began to think about a serious question: Should I do a job that can do old work? ?
Investment is a career that gets older and more fragrant than those that are more friendly to young people. A private equity website has made correlation statistics on the age and performance returns of fund managers. The results show that after the 60s, the manager ’s fund, whether it is the five-year average performance or the Sharp index (an indicator for evaluating the stability of the fund ’s performance), clearly exceeds 70 , 80 and 90 post-fund managers.
When you get old, you still have to work. Some people may find this kind of life sad, but that ’s because you have n’t found a career that is worth working for and that really belongs to “the older you get, the better”.
I have met many people who claim to retire after earning money after their age. They either cannot earn so much money before retiring, or refuse to retire after earning so much money. I think the most important reason is that you must love what you are doing and be willing to give it a lifetime.
Like Buffett said: “I haveI have been tapping to work for 60 years, because I do what I like, and I feel lucky. “
Although Buffett is known as the “shareholder”, the annual shareholders meeting also becomesAs a “pilgrimage” for global investors, Buffett’s thinking has already surpassed the investment itself, and has become a comprehensive consideration of the company’s value.
As a master of value investment, Buffett ’s philosophy was summarized by the investment community as “long-term holding to beat the market with compound interest” , But most people are not aware of the origin of this concept.
Unlike mutual funds and hedge funds, Buffett ’s Berkshire Hathaway ’s investment performance comes from the financial profit of the invested company (before the adjustment of the US accounting standards in 2018), not the rise and fall of the stock price. This allows Buffett to go beyond the stock price and think more about the company’s operations and strategy.
Buffett ’s perspective on the value of the company is between financial investment and strategic investment-more focused on corporate strategy rather than stock price growth than general financial investors, and more focused on operating profit than general strategic investors. Strategic coordination with the parent company.
A person who does n’t care about the stock price rises and falls instead gets the most profit from the stock market.
Buffett has not published a book. His speech at the annual shareholder meeting is the main material for studying his ideas. Therefore, every year the shareholder meeting will go beyond the investment circle and become a public topic-non-stock trading People can also learn a lot from it.
This article lists three topics that are equally meaningful to non-shareholders from Buffett’s speech at the 2020 general meeting of shareholders.
2/4 Courage to correct mistakes
The first focus of this general meeting is Buffett ’s aviation stocks Investment failed.
Buffett added 1 million shares of Delta Air Lines at $ 46 at the end of February this year. Prior to this, Buffett held 70 million shares of Delta Air Lines for a long time, and Southwest Airlines.
After US stocks peaked on February 19,By the end of February, it had fallen by 15%. According to normal thinking (that is, regardless of the severity of the epidemic), there is indeed investment value here.
However, this outbreak cannot be incorporated into normal thinking. In fact, most investors in developed countries in Europe and the United States have underestimated the impact of the epidemic and overestimated their own prevention and control capabilities, and Buffett is no exception. At that time, the outbreak in Italy had already exploded, and news of the nursing homes in the United States continued to be infected. Buffett still bought the shares of the airlines most affected by the outbreak.
Following is the paragraph of Buffett’s “Living for a Long Time” ——
March 8th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I only saw one U.S. stock blow.
March 9th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old and I have only seen two U.S. stocks melt.
March 12, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I have only seen three US stocks blow.
March 16th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I have only seen four US stock market meltdowns.
When Delta Air Lines was at its lowest, the purchase price from Buffett fell another 60%.
However, Buffett ’s investment philosophy has always been “I only look at the long-term value of the company, and do not care about short-term stock price fluctuations.” Many of his classic investment cases have also fallen by 30% in one or two years, and then slowly increased Several times, fully embodies the charm of “compound interest”.
Out of trust in the stock god, most people believe that Buffett ’s investment is still just a continuation of the previous model, Buffett will still hold firmly, and even buy more and more.
But on April 4, shocking news came out that public information showed that Buffett had suddenly sold 13 million shares of Delta Air Lines. There was a lot of speculation at the time, and one of the views was that Buffett had to reduce its shareholding to less than 10%, so that no more public information was needed. This interpretation essentially reflects everyone’s belief in Buffett’s “no short-term trading.”
The answer was finally revealed at this general meeting. Buffett admitted that he had sold all the aviation stocks he held. That is to say, since the first reduction in early April, Buffett has been “selling and selling.”
Although Buffett ’s performance has sometimes fallen short of the average in recent decades, it ’s just a difference in investment style, but this time, Buffett has indeed made a mistake.
At the shareholders ’meeting, Buffett explained that when he made the buying decision, he considered the aviation stocks at that time.The dividend situation, he believes that the operation of these airlines is still good, so this is a price with investment value. But in April, after the government warned everyone not to travel, everything changed.
Buffett realized that the impact of the epidemic on the aviation industry may be long-term, and many people may significantly reduce the frequency of air travel in the next two or three years, resulting in an excess of airlines ’existing aircraft and the aviation industry ’s debt The rate is very high. If the business cannot be restored to most of the previous levels, many companies may even go bankrupt.
Warren Buffett explained that he would not lose trust in a company ’s stock price because it fell by 30% or 40%, but the future of the aviation industry has suddenly become ambiguous. At that time, I would rather sell it first.
This is really a great place for Buffett. The idea of mature investors is continuous. Most people find that they may have made a mistake, but they are not sure whether it is a mistake. The most typical reaction is often “Deny the error”, they will think-
“This has happened before, isn’t it all okay later …”
“To believe in yourself, now is the time to test whether a person ’s will is firm …”
After realizing that they are really likely to make mistakes, another typical reaction is “delay.” Especially public figures will worry that admitting mistakes is already a blow to their “always correct” image. If after acknowledgment, it is found that this is not a mistake, then there is another public impression of “unwillingness”, and it is “face-slapping”.
In addition, the results of investment often take a long time to appear. Most people choose to insist that they are right, so many public figures can easily drag small mistakes into big mistakes,
This also shows that Buffett’s “self-slap” is not easy. From the perspective of maintaining the public image, Buffett can sell slowly, dragging on for a year or two, and wait until everyone gradually forgets and then clears.
This is not the first time Buffett ’s “self-slap” has previously claimed that he will not invest in technology companies such as Apple, but now Apple has become his first position.
He also had the experience of “slapping his face to the left and right”. He said before that he couldn’t understand technology companies like IBM, but then he “understood” when IBM’s stock price was high. I still ca n’t understand it, so I have to clear all of them,
Dare to face yourself is the real self-confidence. It is easy for public figures to “add play” to themselves. In fact, there are so many people who pay attention to your every move.
For me personally, Buffett ’s biggest impact to me this time was that he only doubted the prospects of the aviation industry and sold all the stocks he had held for many years at a time. I really ca n’t do this. When I ’m not particularly sure, I usually sell part by part. Sometimes I hope to wait for a relatively high price to sell, and I wo n’t sell it after a big drop, but this response In essence, she is still lucky about her mistakes.
Buffett ’s handling of airline stocks reflects his caution. But on the whole, Buffett is still a very optimistic person. He is still as bullish on the US economy as he always is in the shareholders’ meeting and believes that now is a good time to buy stocks.
This is the second core theme at Buffett’s shareholders meeting. How did he grasp the balance between “optimism for the future” and “cautiousness in investment”?
This question is also meaningful to ordinary people who do not trade stocks.
3/4 People are correct, optimists succeed
At a shareholders meeting, a Canadian investor asked a very sharp The problem is to say: Mr. Buffett, you claim that you are short in the United States, and you said that it is a good time to buy stocks, but you sold it in April, and now you have 400 billion in cash on your account. Isn’t it fooling us to “take over for the country”, right?
For this “conspiracy theory” with typical retail thinking, Buffett explained this way:
His so-called “now is the best time to buy”, the premise is long-term optimism, and should be prepared for two aspects: one is financial, because the worst must be prevented in the short term Second, psychologically, everyone suffers from different levels of loss, and this must be considered when buying.
Buffett compares this year ’s crisis with the 2008 financial crisis and believes that 2008 was when the train deviated from the track, and this year it was our initiative to temporarily stop the train.
It sounds like Buffett is more optimistic about the outcome of the crisis this time; but for the actual response, Buffett is more cautious this time.
At the time of the worst financial crisis in 2008, Buffett had begun to buy in bulk, and US stocks bottomed out half a year later; and this time, Berkshire still retains a lot of cash and is still preventing the worst. occur.
The reason is that although the crisis in 2008 is serious, it is a classic crisis, and there are classic answers. There is no precedent for this crisis. Although it is still optimistic, the short-term uncertainty is also more Strong.
Therefore, during the 2008 crisis, Buffett increased its holdings in utility companies and industrial companies (the investment in BYD was started at that time), a large number of lightening positions in consumer companies and the financial industry; and this year, Buffett is reducing aviation holdings. At the same time as the industry, financial and consumer companies are still retained. This is an active response to the two different problems of “train off track” and “train suspension”-the last problem was excessive consumption and excessive debt, this time the problem is a change in lifestyle.
So optimistic attitudes and cautious responses vary from time to time and from situation to situation.
These explanations by Buffett are very familiar to us, “The future is bright, the road is tortuous”, it is a balance between long-term strategy and short-term strategy:
Not only investment, but most things are “pessimists often correct, optimists succeed eventually.”
“Pessimists are often correct”, which is very common in real life. When you want to do something that is not very common, there are always good people who list a bunch of risks and advise you to be careful. In fact, the less people do, the lower the success rate, so pessimists are often correct, but the price is-pure pessimists always pass the life indifferently.
From the perspective of communication, a pessimistic view of the future is often more eye-catching and gives people the feeling that “the world is drunk and I wake up alone”. They seem correct, but in fact, these tragedy arguments often correspond to the “inertia” in our hearts -do n’t jump jobs, do n’t start a business, do n’t invest, do n’t buy a house, do n’t get married, do n’t get divorced, do n’t be second Fetal …, in short, don’t change anything, because everything may be wrong.
So, “the optimist eventually succeeds” does not mean that optimism can succeed, but that you must have a long-term optimistic attitude towards the future, and you are willing to actively respond to short-term fluctuations.
4/4 Find a job that can do old work
This shareholders meeting created two firsts, the first use Live broadcast, Buffett used PPT for the first time.
The latter may be a bit surprising to everyone, but if you consider that Buffett was born in 1930 and is already 90 years old, you may think of another problem:
It ’s not easy for ordinary people to live to this age. It is also necessary to carry out such complicated thinking, express their deep thoughts in very concise language, and have quick thinking. All the questions are answered in a fluent way, I have to say that it is a miracle.
A few years ago, precisely because of Buffett and his investment partner Munger, who was 6 years older than me, I began to think about a serious question: Should I do a job that can do old work? ?
Investment is a career that gets older and more fragrant than those that are more friendly to young people. A private equity website has made correlation statistics on the age and performance returns of fund managers. The results show that after the 60s, the manager ’s fund, whether it is the five-year average performance or the Sharp index (an indicator for evaluating the stability of the fund ’s performance), clearly exceeds 70 , 80 and 90 post-fund managers.
When you get old, you still have to work. Some people may find this kind of life sad, but that ’s because you have n’t found a career that is worth working for and that really belongs to “the older you get, the better”.
I have met many people who claim to retire after earning money after their age. They either cannot earn so much money before retiring, or refuse to retire after earning so much money. I think the most important reason is that you must love what you are doing and be willing to give it a lifetime.
Like Buffett said: “I haveI have been tapping to work for 60 years, because I do what I like, and I feel lucky. “
The first focus of this general meeting is Buffett ’s aviation stocks Investment failed.
Buffett added 1 million shares of Delta Air Lines at $ 46 at the end of February this year. Prior to this, Buffett held 70 million shares of Delta Air Lines for a long time, and Southwest Airlines.
After US stocks peaked on February 19,By the end of February, it had fallen by 15%. According to normal thinking (that is, regardless of the severity of the epidemic), there is indeed investment value here.
However, this outbreak cannot be incorporated into normal thinking. In fact, most investors in developed countries in Europe and the United States have underestimated the impact of the epidemic and overestimated their own prevention and control capabilities, and Buffett is no exception. At that time, the outbreak in Italy had already exploded, and news of the nursing homes in the United States continued to be infected. Buffett still bought the shares of the airlines most affected by the outbreak.
Following is the paragraph of Buffett’s “Living for a Long Time” ——
March 8th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I only saw one U.S. stock blow.
March 9th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old and I have only seen two U.S. stocks melt.
March 12, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I have only seen three US stocks blow.
March 16th, Buffett: I lived 89 years old, and I have only seen four US stock market meltdowns.
When Delta Air Lines was at its lowest, the purchase price from Buffett fell another 60%.
However, Buffett ’s investment philosophy has always been “I only look at the long-term value of the company, and do not care about short-term stock price fluctuations.” Many of his classic investment cases have also fallen by 30% in one or two years, and then slowly increased Several times, fully embodies the charm of “compound interest”.
Out of trust in the stock god, most people believe that Buffett ’s investment is still just a continuation of the previous model, Buffett will still hold firmly, and even buy more and more.
But on April 4, shocking news came out that public information showed that Buffett had suddenly sold 13 million shares of Delta Air Lines. There was a lot of speculation at the time, and one of the views was that Buffett had to reduce its shareholding to less than 10%, so that no more public information was needed. This interpretation essentially reflects everyone’s belief in Buffett’s “no short-term trading.”
The answer was finally revealed at this general meeting. Buffett admitted that he had sold all the aviation stocks he held. That is to say, since the first reduction in early April, Buffett has been “selling and selling.”
Although Buffett ’s performance has sometimes fallen short of the average in recent decades, it ’s just a difference in investment style, but this time, Buffett has indeed made a mistake.
At the shareholders ’meeting, Buffett explained that when he made the buying decision, he considered the aviation stocks at that time.The dividend situation, he believes that the operation of these airlines is still good, so this is a price with investment value. But in April, after the government warned everyone not to travel, everything changed.
Buffett realized that the impact of the epidemic on the aviation industry may be long-term, and many people may significantly reduce the frequency of air travel in the next two or three years, resulting in an excess of airlines ’existing aircraft and the aviation industry ’s debt The rate is very high. If the business cannot be restored to most of the previous levels, many companies may even go bankrupt.
Warren Buffett explained that he would not lose trust in a company ’s stock price because it fell by 30% or 40%, but the future of the aviation industry has suddenly become ambiguous. At that time, I would rather sell it first.
This is really a great place for Buffett. The idea of mature investors is continuous. Most people find that they may have made a mistake, but they are not sure whether it is a mistake. The most typical reaction is often “Deny the error”, they will think-
“This has happened before, isn’t it all okay later …”
“To believe in yourself, now is the time to test whether a person ’s will is firm …”
After realizing that they are really likely to make mistakes, another typical reaction is “delay.” Especially public figures will worry that admitting mistakes is already a blow to their “always correct” image. If after acknowledgment, it is found that this is not a mistake, then there is another public impression of “unwillingness”, and it is “face-slapping”.
In addition, the results of investment often take a long time to appear. Most people choose to insist that they are right, so many public figures can easily drag small mistakes into big mistakes,
This also shows that Buffett’s “self-slap” is not easy. From the perspective of maintaining the public image, Buffett can sell slowly, dragging on for a year or two, and wait until everyone gradually forgets and then clears.
This is not the first time Buffett ’s “self-slap” has previously claimed that he will not invest in technology companies such as Apple, but now Apple has become his first position.
He also had the experience of “slapping his face to the left and right”. He said before that he couldn’t understand technology companies like IBM, but then he “understood” when IBM’s stock price was high. I still ca n’t understand it, so I have to clear all of them,
Dare to face yourself is the real self-confidence. It is easy for public figures to “add play” to themselves. In fact, there are so many people who pay attention to your every move.
For me personally, Buffett ’s biggest impact to me this time was that he only doubted the prospects of the aviation industry and sold all the stocks he had held for many years at a time. I really ca n’t do this. When I ’m not particularly sure, I usually sell part by part. Sometimes I hope to wait for a relatively high price to sell, and I wo n’t sell it after a big drop, but this response In essence, she is still lucky about her mistakes.
Buffett ’s handling of airline stocks reflects his caution. But on the whole, Buffett is still a very optimistic person. He is still as bullish on the US economy as he always is in the shareholders’ meeting and believes that now is a good time to buy stocks.
This is the second core theme at Buffett’s shareholders meeting. How did he grasp the balance between “optimism for the future” and “cautiousness in investment”?
This question is also meaningful to ordinary people who do not trade stocks.
3/4 People are correct, optimists succeed
At a shareholders meeting, a Canadian investor asked a very sharp The problem is to say: Mr. Buffett, you claim that you are short in the United States, and you said that it is a good time to buy stocks, but you sold it in April, and now you have 400 billion in cash on your account. Isn’t it fooling us to “take over for the country”, right?
For this “conspiracy theory” with typical retail thinking, Buffett explained this way:
His so-called “now is the best time to buy”, the premise is long-term optimism, and should be prepared for two aspects: one is financial, because the worst must be prevented in the short term Second, psychologically, everyone suffers from different levels of loss, and this must be considered when buying.
Buffett compares this year ’s crisis with the 2008 financial crisis and believes that 2008 was when the train deviated from the track, and this year it was our initiative to temporarily stop the train.
It sounds like Buffett is more optimistic about the outcome of the crisis this time; but for the actual response, Buffett is more cautious this time.
At the time of the worst financial crisis in 2008, Buffett had begun to buy in bulk, and US stocks bottomed out half a year later; and this time, Berkshire still retains a lot of cash and is still preventing the worst. occur.
The reason is that although the crisis in 2008 is serious, it is a classic crisis, and there are classic answers. There is no precedent for this crisis. Although it is still optimistic, the short-term uncertainty is also more Strong.
Therefore, during the 2008 crisis, Buffett increased its holdings in utility companies and industrial companies (the investment in BYD was started at that time), a large number of lightening positions in consumer companies and the financial industry; and this year, Buffett is reducing aviation holdings. At the same time as the industry, financial and consumer companies are still retained. This is an active response to the two different problems of “train off track” and “train suspension”-the last problem was excessive consumption and excessive debt, this time the problem is a change in lifestyle.
So optimistic attitudes and cautious responses vary from time to time and from situation to situation.
These explanations by Buffett are very familiar to us, “The future is bright, the road is tortuous”, it is a balance between long-term strategy and short-term strategy:
Not only investment, but most things are “pessimists often correct, optimists succeed eventually.”
“Pessimists are often correct”, which is very common in real life. When you want to do something that is not very common, there are always good people who list a bunch of risks and advise you to be careful. In fact, the less people do, the lower the success rate, so pessimists are often correct, but the price is-pure pessimists always pass the life indifferently.
From the perspective of communication, a pessimistic view of the future is often more eye-catching and gives people the feeling that “the world is drunk and I wake up alone”. They seem correct, but in fact, these tragedy arguments often correspond to the “inertia” in our hearts -do n’t jump jobs, do n’t start a business, do n’t invest, do n’t buy a house, do n’t get married, do n’t get divorced, do n’t be second Fetal …, in short, don’t change anything, because everything may be wrong.
So, “the optimist eventually succeeds” does not mean that optimism can succeed, but that you must have a long-term optimistic attitude towards the future, and you are willing to actively respond to short-term fluctuations.
4/4 Find a job that can do old work
This shareholders meeting created two firsts, the first use Live broadcast, Buffett used PPT for the first time.
The latter may be a bit surprising to everyone, but if you consider that Buffett was born in 1930 and is already 90 years old, you may think of another problem:
It ’s not easy for ordinary people to live to this age. It is also necessary to carry out such complicated thinking, express their deep thoughts in very concise language, and have quick thinking. All the questions are answered in a fluent way, I have to say that it is a miracle.
A few years ago, precisely because of Buffett and his investment partner Munger, who was 6 years older than me, I began to think about a serious question: Should I do a job that can do old work? ?
Investment is a career that gets older and more fragrant than those that are more friendly to young people. A private equity website has made correlation statistics on the age and performance returns of fund managers. The results show that after the 60s, the manager ’s fund, whether it is the five-year average performance or the Sharp index (an indicator for evaluating the stability of the fund ’s performance), clearly exceeds 70 , 80 and 90 post-fund managers.
When you get old, you still have to work. Some people may find this kind of life sad, but that ’s because you have n’t found a career that is worth working for and that really belongs to “the older you get, the better”.
I have met many people who claim to retire after earning money after their age. They either cannot earn so much money before retiring, or refuse to retire after earning so much money. I think the most important reason is that you must love what you are doing and be willing to give it a lifetime.
Like Buffett said: “I haveI have been tapping to work for 60 years, because I do what I like, and I feel lucky. “
At a shareholders meeting, a Canadian investor asked a very sharp The problem is to say: Mr. Buffett, you claim that you are short in the United States, and you said that it is a good time to buy stocks, but you sold it in April, and now you have 400 billion in cash on your account. Isn’t it fooling us to “take over for the country”, right?
For this “conspiracy theory” with typical retail thinking, Buffett explained this way:
His so-called “now is the best time to buy”, the premise is long-term optimism, and should be prepared for two aspects: one is financial, because the worst must be prevented in the short term Second, psychologically, everyone suffers from different levels of loss, and this must be considered when buying.
Buffett compares this year ’s crisis with the 2008 financial crisis and believes that 2008 was when the train deviated from the track, and this year it was our initiative to temporarily stop the train.
It sounds like Buffett is more optimistic about the outcome of the crisis this time; but for the actual response, Buffett is more cautious this time.
At the time of the worst financial crisis in 2008, Buffett had begun to buy in bulk, and US stocks bottomed out half a year later; and this time, Berkshire still retains a lot of cash and is still preventing the worst. occur.
The reason is that although the crisis in 2008 is serious, it is a classic crisis, and there are classic answers. There is no precedent for this crisis. Although it is still optimistic, the short-term uncertainty is also more Strong.
Therefore, during the 2008 crisis, Buffett increased its holdings in utility companies and industrial companies (the investment in BYD was started at that time), a large number of lightening positions in consumer companies and the financial industry; and this year, Buffett is reducing aviation holdings. At the same time as the industry, financial and consumer companies are still retained. This is an active response to the two different problems of “train off track” and “train suspension”-the last problem was excessive consumption and excessive debt, this time the problem is a change in lifestyle.
So optimistic attitudes and cautious responses vary from time to time and from situation to situation.
These explanations by Buffett are very familiar to us, “The future is bright, the road is tortuous”, it is a balance between long-term strategy and short-term strategy:
Not only investment, but most things are “pessimists often correct, optimists succeed eventually.”
“Pessimists are often correct”, which is very common in real life. When you want to do something that is not very common, there are always good people who list a bunch of risks and advise you to be careful. In fact, the less people do, the lower the success rate, so pessimists are often correct, but the price is-pure pessimists always pass the life indifferently.
From the perspective of communication, a pessimistic view of the future is often more eye-catching and gives people the feeling that “the world is drunk and I wake up alone”. They seem correct, but in fact, these tragedy arguments often correspond to the “inertia” in our hearts -do n’t jump jobs, do n’t start a business, do n’t invest, do n’t buy a house, do n’t get married, do n’t get divorced, do n’t be second Fetal …, in short, don’t change anything, because everything may be wrong.
So, “the optimist eventually succeeds” does not mean that optimism can succeed, but that you must have a long-term optimistic attitude towards the future, and you are willing to actively respond to short-term fluctuations.
4/4 Find a job that can do old work
This shareholders meeting created two firsts, the first use Live broadcast, Buffett used PPT for the first time.
The latter may be a bit surprising to everyone, but if you consider that Buffett was born in 1930 and is already 90 years old, you may think of another problem:
It ’s not easy for ordinary people to live to this age. It is also necessary to carry out such complicated thinking, express their deep thoughts in very concise language, and have quick thinking. All the questions are answered in a fluent way, I have to say that it is a miracle.
A few years ago, precisely because of Buffett and his investment partner Munger, who was 6 years older than me, I began to think about a serious question: Should I do a job that can do old work? ?
Investment is a career that gets older and more fragrant than those that are more friendly to young people. A private equity website has made correlation statistics on the age and performance returns of fund managers. The results show that after the 60s, the manager ’s fund, whether it is the five-year average performance or the Sharp index (an indicator for evaluating the stability of the fund ’s performance), clearly exceeds 70 , 80 and 90 post-fund managers.
When you get old, you still have to work. Some people may find this kind of life sad, but that ’s because you have n’t found a career that is worth working for and that really belongs to “the older you get, the better”.
I have met many people who claim to retire after earning money after their age. They either cannot earn so much money before retiring, or refuse to retire after earning so much money. I think the most important reason is that you must love what you are doing and be willing to give it a lifetime.
Like Buffett said: “I haveI have been tapping to work for 60 years, because I do what I like, and I feel lucky. “
This shareholders meeting created two firsts, the first use Live broadcast, Buffett used PPT for the first time.
The latter may be a bit surprising to everyone, but if you consider that Buffett was born in 1930 and is already 90 years old, you may think of another problem:
It ’s not easy for ordinary people to live to this age. It is also necessary to carry out such complicated thinking, express their deep thoughts in very concise language, and have quick thinking. All the questions are answered in a fluent way, I have to say that it is a miracle.
A few years ago, precisely because of Buffett and his investment partner Munger, who was 6 years older than me, I began to think about a serious question: Should I do a job that can do old work? ?
Investment is a career that gets older and more fragrant than those that are more friendly to young people. A private equity website has made correlation statistics on the age and performance returns of fund managers. The results show that after the 60s, the manager ’s fund, whether it is the five-year average performance or the Sharp index (an indicator for evaluating the stability of the fund ’s performance), clearly exceeds 70 , 80 and 90 post-fund managers.
When you get old, you still have to work. Some people may find this kind of life sad, but that ’s because you have n’t found a career that is worth working for and that really belongs to “the older you get, the better”.
I have met many people who claim to retire after earning money after their age. They either cannot earn so much money before retiring, or refuse to retire after earning so much money. I think the most important reason is that you must love what you are doing and be willing to give it a lifetime.
Like Buffett said: “I haveI have been tapping to work for 60 years, because I do what I like, and I feel lucky. “