This article comes from the WeChat public account: World Saying (ID: globusnews) , author: Ran Min Road, formerly titled” epidemic under new normal, Sweden to represent the future of the world? “, Title picture: original text for picture
At a press conference on April 29, Dr. Michael Ryan, Executive Director of the World Health Organization Health Emergencies Project Group, said: “If the new crown epidemic becomes the new normal, then Sweden represents a future model in many ways. “
Although the World Health Organization commented on the Swedish model in a press conference in just a few minutes and was very cautious, it did not recommend other countries to follow Sweden ’s epidemic prevention measures. The Swedish local TV station TV4 still used “WHO said: Sweden can be used as a model for other countries’ futures” when reporting WHO’s “likes” to the country. (“WHO: Sverige kan vara en framtida modell för andra länder”) as the news headline.
● “WHO says: Sweden can be used as a model for other countries in the future” / TV4 news video screenshot
And as early as early April, Sweden ’s former national epidemiologist and former publicHealth expert Johan Giesecke once told the Swedish media that “all other countries have done wrong” (Alla andra länder gör fel)
At the time of the global pandemic of the new coronavirus, Sweden is the only country that has always insisted on “reverse driving” from the beginning to the present-no closure of the country, no foot, no closure of restaurants, shops and bars, There is no restriction on public transportation and the school is not completely closed.
Denmark and Norway, also in Northern Europe, have unsealed one after another during the Easter (April 12) and entered the “Sweden mode”. Neighboring countries with similar social and economic conditions have changed course, and with the affirmation of WHO, does it mean that Sweden’s retrograde epidemic has been successful? Does the success of the Swedish model mean “all other countries have done wrong”? If the new crown epidemic will become the new normal in life, in what ways can Sweden provide the world with a reference to a future model?
The pandemic is fading
On April 29, on the day that WHO affirmed Sweden ’s epidemic prevention strategy, the Swedish Public Health Agency issued a report saying the number of basic infections of new coronary pneumonia in Sweden ( R0) has fallen back below 1 since April 21.
Anders Tegnell, a spokesperson for the Public Health Bureau, a national epidemiologist and the chief designer of the Swedish epidemic prevention strategy, said in a subsequent interview with the national television station SVT that “if R0 is less than 1, then each patient will not even be infected One person, which means that the pandemic will gradually subside “, also shows that” the measures we took have played a role, such as maintaining social distance and keeping sick people at home. Every citizen ’s actions have a decline in the number of basic infections. influences”.
The Swedish Public Health Bureau mentioned in a press conference that neighboring Norway had dropped to 0.7 on April 6. Sweden’s R0 has now dropped below 1, finally ushering in the first favorable data that proves that the epidemic is effectively controlled.
For Sweden, such data is particularly prominent: Although Nordic people are used to maintaining a long social distance, and the ratio of living with each other is very low, when Denmark, Norway and Finland announced the closure of schools and restaurants / bars and barber shops ,All schools and kindergartens from kindergarten to junior high school in Sweden are kept open.
● Comparison of the four Nordic epidemic prevention measures / CNN mapping
In terms of embargo measures, the only measure in the Nordic countries is to prohibit large-scale public gatherings. However, in the definition of “large gatherings”, the population density in Sweden and per square kilometer is 5.52 times higher than its own There is still a big difference compared to Denmark. Although Denmark, which has a higher population density, has been partially unblocked, gatherings of more than 10 people are still banned, and Sweden did not implement a ban on large gatherings until March 11, when the number of people was limited to less than 500, and was late as of March 27 Only recently tightened to ban parties of more than 50 people.
The mortality rate is several times higher than in neighboring countries
It seems that Sweden ’s retrograde epidemic prevention situation is very good. Even if the city is not closed, it seems that it has achieved the same results as the neighboring countries. But what cannot be ignored is that the Swedish epidemic prevention came at the cost of more irrecoverable lives.
Due to the varying intensity of testing in various countries, the percentage of diagnoses cannot be used as reliable data to understand the severity of the epidemic in each country. Looking at the number of deaths per 100,000 population as a benchmark, comparing Sweden with Denmark, Norway and Finland, whose population, geographical conditions and socio-political culture are similar, Sweden has 22 deaths per 100,000 population, which is 3.14 times that of Denmark. 5.5 times Norway and Finland.
What causes Sweden ’s mortality rate to top the Nordic list and top in Europe?
The direct reason is that Sweden ’s testing efforts have been insufficient. Inconsistent with the inherent image of Sweden ’s high tax and high welfare, Sweden once tried to abandon large-scale testing in the early stage of the outbreak, although this “abandoned therapy” idea was only announced for 10 days and was abandonedDian has also promised to increase testing efforts, but until now, the proportion of Swedish testing in Europe is still significantly lower.
As of May 3, the Swedish new crown has only 11833 per million population testing data, while the neighboring country Denmark has 38312, Norway 31835, Finland 18463, and even Turkey has reached 13177. The existence of undetected groups of infected people undoubtedly increases the possibility of infection in risk groups, which indirectly causes more people to die and die. On April 30, Swedish Minister of Social Affairs Lena Hallengren announced that from mid-May, 100,000 people will be tested every week. Played an active role in China, but could not save the lost lives.
In addition, like many painful lessons in the new crown epidemic in many European countries, the Public Health Bureau also recognized that the “lost” of nursing homes is one of the reasons for the large number of deaths. Sweden did not prohibit visiting nursing homes until April 1st, and it has always been “recommended not to go out” for elderly people over 70 years old who are not in nursing homes, rather than compulsoryly going out.
● A spontaneous memorial office / network for the new crown deceased in Stockholm
Although there is no clear announcement of the infection rate and death figures of elderly people in nursing homes, as early as April 11, Swedish Broadcast News has reported that a large scale of nursing homes has appeared in 18 of 21 provinces in Sweden. infection. Earlier on April 2, the proportion of infections in nursing homes in the capital Stockholm reached one third, and on April 16, the second largest city, Gothenburg, also reported that the infection rate in nursing homes was one third.
According to data released last week, 630 of the 1,406 people currently dying in Stockholm due to the new crown are nursing home residents.
On the other hand, the refugee integration problem that Sweden has not been able to solve is also a high mortality rate