This article comes from the WeChat public account: Jurassic (ID: newJurassic) , author: Zhu Luo Ji, from head Figure: vision China
The “multi-school planning” in Xicheng District of Beijing has become the focus of public opinion, and the titles of several articles are “The school district is cold”. It is believed that once this multi-school planning and drawing lottery is implemented, the probability of matching a poor school will increase greatly, and the value of the school district of the prestigious school will avalanche.
Accordingly, Shenzhen is also one of the centers of high housing prices in famous Chinese school districts. (A friend of mine recently sold the Fang Jinmao Lidu, Shenzhen Experimental School District, 35.8 square meters, 7.5 million, the unit price goes to 210,000) . In the past few days, Longhua has also continued to implement the university district system for the fifth year, cooling the housing of the Shenzhen North High School District that has climbed to 10w +.
I am an opponent of a high-priced school district, and I do n’t think that children must be enrolled in prestigious schools before they can finally become talents. Education is the foundation of nationhood in any country, and every child should be given equal educational opportunities. This is the law. The requirement is also a basic civilization.
The excessively high housing prices in the school district will indeed lead to too deep a bond between high-quality education resources and family property, which in turn will result in high-quality degree resources becoming an investment product chased by buyers. Over time, it will indeed harm the spirit of education equity . If it can be cool because of this, it is not a bad thing.
I have also written many articles about school district housing and Shenzhen degree gaps, such as: “Why is the school district in Hong Kong not as crazy as we are? 》 ,
It should be said that the price of houses in prestigious school districts is expensive, which is similar in the whole world. To obtain high-quality educational resources is to pay a higher price. However, Like us, the price difference between a room in a prestigious school district and a room in a non-prestigious school district is so large that it is rare in the world . What is the power behind it? It is not clear in a few words. We are not necessarily professional. What we can do is to look at the changes in the school district housing in combination with real estate.
It is worth pointing out that there seems to be another trend now. When discussing equality in education, everyone seems to have a tendency to slide toward egalitarianism, and a considerable number of people even go to a complete anti-market. Of course, we are in favor of equal access to education and fair process, but equal results cannot be controlled, and it violates the spirit of fairness.
Everyone has equal access to the right to education, noIt means that everyone can get equal education. In fact, if you read this article, you may understand that the problem of sky-high housing prices in our school districts does not necessarily appear in the market, but in policies. To be precise, the “process fairness” of education is not done well-the policy Unfair treatment in class schools has affected children ’s chances of obtaining a relatively balanced education.
The first task is to understand why the school districts in Beijing and Shenzhen are so expensive? Is it possible for “multi-school planning” and “university district system” to make it “cool”?
This is a very typical and rare phenomenon in which changes in limitations affect asset price fluctuations.
First, understand the basic economic principles
Cite three economic axioms in Zhang Wuchang’s “Economic Explanation”. Based on the limited resources, scarce resources need to be obtained through competition, and competition must pay the price. To prevent waste, competition requires rules and regulations-the rules are called ” Limitations “.
The market is one of the rules of competition and is empirically proven since human civilization: the most fair and least wasteful rule of resources is tested. The meaning of the market is the price, whoever gets the highest price will get the resources.
The rules corresponding to the market include a hierarchical system, such as the Wei Jin Jiu Pin Zhongzheng system; an identity system, such as the “succession system” and the “grain ticket system” in the past few decades; Bus, come first …
The rules can be replaced with each other. If you do n’t use this rule, you need to use that rule, but there must be rules.
This is the theoretical source for explaining the housing of famous school districts (Of course, it is also possible to explain real estate, but the school district housing is more typical) .
Second, the origin of the school district
The basis for determining everything is the unusual scarcity of good schools. In Beijing, good schools are basically concentrated in the three districts of Xicheng, Dongcheng, and Haidian; in Shenzhen, good schools are basically distributed in the “four major”. The same is true in other cities, except that the degree of scarcity varies.
As for what causes this scarcity, or how much scarcity is caused by man-made policies, I will talk about it below. In short, it is extremely scarce, which determines that parents have to pay a high price to obtain the qualifications to enter prestigious schools.
Don’t think of this price as it was not expensive in the past, but only now. It ’s not like that, it has always been expensive. (more expensive in recent years) , but the price is different due to changes in rules.
Inspecting history, before the 1990s, it was mainly household registration first, and behind the household registration was power (For example, as everyone knows, settled down for a long time Beijing needs a very expensive price, and even you need to marry a Beijinger who has no emotional foundation) , as the competition criterion is dominating-as an alternative to market norms.
Later, “school selection fees” appeared in various places (At that time, they were tens of thousands of dollars at a time) , this “school selection fee” was actually The market began to emerge as a guideline. For parents, the level part + the money part together constitute the price of the payment, but you can not see the price of the power part. Today, school selection fees still exist, which is a compensation mechanism in the market.
Later, in order to limit the increasingly high school selection fees, localities began to use household registration + own property points as the rules for evaluating admission, and the weight of real estate increased significantly, basically replacing the “school selection fee” The concept of “school district housing” is officially popular.
The price of the school district’s housing = “hidden cost of household registration + school selection fee”, because the property can be settled. The scarcity of the school district room depends on the scarcity of the prestigious school degree. The price of the school district room is the price we pay for obtaining the prestigious school degree. Because the prestigious school degree is public, it is a free lunch. It moved to the corresponding real estate in the surrounding area.
So, this process is just another illustration of a simple economic theory: there is no free lunch in the world.
Three, the origin of the scarcity of famous schools
Resources are expensive because of scarcity, as evidenced by the paradox of “water and diamonds”.
How come the scarcity of famous schools has become more prominent in recent years? This is worth reviewing.
After 70 ~ 80During the period of elementary and middle schools, it should be said that the differentiation of education between rural education and urban education is not as great as it is today. This can be proved by the gradual decrease in the enrollment rate of students in key universities in recent years.
“Liu Yunshan, a professor at the School of Education of Peking University, found that the family background of Peking University students in the past 30 years from 1978 to 2005 found that from 1978 to 1998, the proportion of Peking University students from rural areas accounted for about 30%, and the mid-1990s It began to decline. From 2000 to 2011, only about 10% of the rural children admitted to Beijing University were admitted. ” —— “Rule of Law Weekend” 2013.6
But why is the differentiation between urban and rural and urban schools increasing year by year? Looking at history, I think this is due to three reasons.
One is urbanization. A large number of people have entered the city, resulting in an increasing shortage of urban degree supply. Relative to the countryside, there is an increasing surplus. Especially after the Lewis turning point, the shortage of degrees in large cities is more serious than in all cities. There is a big problem with the market supply of educational resources.
The second is the artificial design of the policy. Cities around the world have the urge to build star schools, and there has been an imbalance in the school ’s administrative level, financial resources, and investment in teachers. For example, in Shenzhen, the financial investment and teacher resources for the four famous schools have long been significantly higher than those of other district-owned schools.
Beijing is more prominent. The resources of prestigious schools are too concentrated in certain areas, which is not normal. These may have historical reasons, but the objective results have created an imbalance in educational resources. The policy design factor is unfair. I think many people have ignored it, but it may be the most direct factor that causes the school district’s sky-high prices.
The third is competition between schools. There is competition among schools, coupled with the tendency of policy support, the differentiation between different schools is gradually intensifying. After reaching a certain year, some famous schools have grown. In the end, there was structural differentiation, and some very powerful prestigious schools were formed in some areas, so they were extremely scarce. ) .
Four, the meaning of “multi-calibration”
From the point 2 “The Origin of the School District House”, in factAs you can see, the past history is actually a change in the rules of competition for obtaining resources from prestigious schools. Up to now, the competition rules have all become market rules-those with the highest price will get it. As long as you buy a school district house, one can settle down and the other can earn real estate points, basically a house to solve all problems.
The result is that the cost of “free lunch” in public schools is fully transferred and reflected in the property. This is why the higher the “admission to the nearest school” + “real estate points” principle is established, the higher the real estate price of the school district. The original hidden prices are all made clear, which is reflected in the real estate around the famous schools.
The supply of high-quality degrees from prestigious schools cannot keep up with the increase in demand, and the increasing scarcity of resources will cause the price of real estate to rise more rapidly. This in turn strengthens the investors’ expected returns, and more funds are rushed in, eventually evolving into the investment market for school district housing.
So now, whether it is the “multi-school planning” promoted by Beijing or the “university district system” implemented by Shenzhen since 2015, it essentially shows a reverse trend: competition rules are starting to pull back-namely It is the market rules that are obtained from the highest bidders, and it has gradually been added to other non-market rules for dilution. Now it is just the beginning.
By contrast, the policy of “multi-school planning” in Xicheng District of Beijing is more radical than that in Shenzhen-Shenzhen Longhua’s “university system” still gives the district school districts an additional 5 points, but All of Beijing has become a lottery lottery, and lottery lottery is another kind of competition rule that replaces the highest bidder.
For example, the university district system is actually to reduce the monopoly of scarce resources of real estate to the school district, and to achieve the goal of reducing the expected value of real estate. As another example, in the case of Shenzhen Guangming Experimental School, children of high-level talents can be given priority in admission. This is no longer a market standard, but an identity standard. These operations that have already appeared all show an attempt to weaken the price increase of prestigious school districts to a certain extent.
Five, the future of school districts
Finally, let’s look at the future of the school district’s housing prices under such adjustments.
The conclusion is very clear. The fundamental principle is: Only a significant increase in the supply of high-quality degrees can alleviate the price rise of high-quality school districts.
As mentioned earlier, in essence, the price of high-quality school districts skyrocketed due to structural differentiation. So, the only way is to work hard to cultivate more good schools. For example inBeijing does not have to be as powerful as Hongmiao Primary School, but it must be similar, and it must not be in the same area. There are more such schools before they can be diverted. This requires cities to make major adjustments to school construction and financial support policies.
How to add more good schools is to return to the basic knowledge of economics at the beginning, and fair competition can produce winners. The policy first needs to withdraw from the unfair treatment of various schools-between prestigious and non-prestigious schools, between public schools of different levels, and between public and private schools, and secondly, encourage more and different types of ownership The supplier’s entry into the market is again to ensure that the rules for all children’s admission to school are transparent and fair. If these policies do not appear, there will be no fundamental cooling in school district housing.
If the supply does not increase and you want to reduce the price of the school district by changing the competition rules, the final result will be as follows: changing the market price rules with the highest configuration efficiency, and other rules will result in waste of resources, which will certainly happen. On the bright side, the price of a school district in a prestigious school may indeed slow down or fall in housing prices-this means that if you continue to buy a school district, you may not necessarily be able to make money.
But it is reflected in the actual cost paid by parents. It must be increased without reduction. Walking through the back door, this cost cannot be seen, but it will actually happen) . The difference is that the extra cost does not necessarily go to the person who invests in the school district.
So, in the end, our judgment is that the university district system like Beijing and Shenzhen has not increased the supply of high-quality degrees. By changing the rules, the probability of buying a school in a prestigious school district is reduced, and there is an opportunity to make School district prices will cool down, but there will be no fundamental changes.
Multiple calibrations, but the following three results:
1. If the quality of schools is the same in multiple schools, it means that the price increase of all schools will be shared evenly. It is slower than the original, but the final performance will still be based on the scarcity of famous schools Sex. In this case, the price of the school district’s housing is still likely to rise, because you still need to buy a house to qualify for the lottery.
2. If there is a very bad school in the multi-school plan, there will be two results:
a: One is that the increase in property prices around poor schools will accelerate, because the probability of enrolling in a good school has greatly increased, everyone can see this.
But in another case, b: If parents who bought a school district in a prestigious school did not enroll in the end, would they choose to go to a poor school? Obviously not, but will go to the prestigious schools through every possible way.
For Chinese parents, what are they willing to pay for their children ’s access to prestigious schools? The answer is: everything.
Therefore, for this type of parents, perhaps the price of their school district housing will drop, but the total price they pay for this may exceed that difference. In the end, the impact of the “multi-school planning” of poor schools on the cost of the school district will eventually be invalid. (or have a little effect) .
In either case, we will find that the price paid by parents to prestigious schools will not show any decline. Only a part of you can’t see it again, just like before.
At this point, we can continue to observe for 1 to 3 years, and then go back and forth to see whether it is right or wrong.
This article comes from WeChat public account: Jurassic (ID: newJurassic) , author: Zhu Luo Ji
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