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The cinema is about to open! After almost all movie theaters in China have been closed for more than three months, we have waited for news that the movie theaters can be restricted and open. According to the news from the Chinese government website on May 8, the State Council issued guidance on the joint prevention and control mechanism of the new coronavirus infection pneumonia epidemic.

Article 9 of the Guiding Opinions proposes to fully open shopping malls, supermarkets, hotels, restaurants and other living places in accordance with relevant technical guidelines and on the premise of implementing prevention and control measures; to open parks, tourist attractions, Sports venues, indoor venues such as libraries, museums, art galleries, and closed entertainment venues such as theaters, entertainment halls, etc., can hold all kinds of necessary conferences, exhibitions, etc. This means that entertainment venues such as movie theaters can be opened in an orderly manner through appointments and current restrictions.

For a time, netizens renewed their expectations for the 2020 Chinese New Year and the first quarter ’s popular movies. “Jiang Ziya”, “Championship”, “Chinatown Detective 3”, “Hua Mulan”, “Onmyoji” … Movies that have been delayed due to the epidemic are expected to be released one after another, which will delight the audience.

As of now, China ’s new coronary pneumonia epidemic has been effectively controlled. Most provinces and cities have experienced zero new cases for many days, and the epidemic situation is in good shape. Although some audiences are still waiting and refusing to re-enter the cinema in the short term, the movie box office is expected to usher in a surge in the “Eleventh” Golden Week a few months later.

There are nearly five months before the “Eleventh”. Under the effective and rapid anti-epidemic measures, our country uses four months to control the epidemic from rapid spread to the current good condition, as long as we do n’t Relaxing the current anti-epidemic measures, I believe that in four months, during the “Eleventh” Golden Week, major theaters across the country are expected to return to their former appearance, and the box office of the movie will also show a “revenge” “The growth trend is not only a celebration for the cinema, but also extremely beneficial to China’s film industry and economic development.

In the face of unexpected natural disasters and man-made disasters, none of us has the ability to predict, and all we can do is to minimize the possible negative effects. The impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic on theaters, cinemas, major film companies, and the entire film industry is unexpected, but now theaters are about to resume work. Although the road to “rehabilitation” is still long, as long as everything goes in a sunny direction One day, the film industry will be as bright and bright as ever.

Popular movies may not return for a while

The news that the movie theater is about to resume work immediately caused the fans to cheer their arms, and the time when they could only watch old movies at home was finally over. Some people ca n’t wait to go back to the theater to watch movies, and even have made a list of watching movies; but some people still hold a wait-and-see attitude. The new crown epidemic is fierce and spreads extremely fast, especially at the important point where the situation continues to improve and our “battle” is about to win. Sometimes, a small mistake may cause irreparability. s consequence.

Therefore, the resumption of the theater at this time will still make some people hesitate to go to the cinema to watch the movie. Now that the epidemic has not completely ended, even in the crowded closed place, even if the epidemic prevention measures are in place, there is still no guarantee that there is no risk of infection. I believe that those who do not have too much desire to go to the cinema to watch movies, and some “conservatives” It said that it will take some time to re-enter the cinema.

On Weibo, another topic that is similar in frequency to the topic “Will you go to see the movie theater opens” is “What is the movie you most want to see at the movie theater?” The names of such films as “Mulan”, “Black Widow”, “Harry Potter”, and “Chinatown Detective 3” appear most frequently. These high-spirited films are mostly Hollywood movies produced by some big producers, and some of them are also highly anticipated. For high-quality domestic movies, under normal circumstances, theaters choose to play these movies basically to make a profit, but in this special period when the epidemic has not ended, the stability of the number of viewers cannot be guaranteed. Selecting “high popularity” to some extent That is to choose “high risk”.

In the short term, it seems that theaters choose “low risk” films to be the most conservative. Because of the long-term shutdown, the theater can no longer afford high losses. Once the choice is wrong, it may cause a shutdown or even a closure. So at this time, small and medium-sized, low-cost movies may be the focus of theater consideration. It depends on the choice of the cinema line. With high popularity and low risk pk, will the theater finally stand on that side?

Although the Internet is full of expectations for popular movies, these blockbuster films may not be released in theaters in a short time.

The State Council ’s “Opinions” now means that a large-scale resumption of work for movie theaters across the country is imminent. However, under the epidemic, consumer spending on movie watching may still be more conservative. On the one hand, during the epidemic prevention and control period, many viewers’ viewing habits changed from offline to online. On the other hand, most of the marketing and promotional activities of the new films were suspended. It is impossible for the theater to resume work quickly to achieve the pre-epidemic effect.

In mid-April, the Chinese Filmmakers Association and the Cat ’s Eye Research Institute organized a questionnaire survey on viewers ’willingness to watch movies. The results showed that over 70% of the audience looked forward to going to the cinema to watch movies. The survey data comes from the valid questionnaire of the ticket-buying audience of the Cat ’s Eye data platform, and 1530 valid samples were recovered.

But regarding what time is the “safe” time for the audience to return to the theater, the questionnaire shows that “entering cases” is the most worrying issue for the public, thinking that “no Among those who are “too suitable” or “totally unsuitable” for watching movies, 40% of the audience think that they have to wait for “the domestic epidemic is basically over, and there are no imported cases.”

currently still in China There are imported cases abroad. Take Tianjin as an example. From 18:00 on May 7 to 8:00 on May 7, Tianjin City newly reported one confirmed case of imported new coronary pneumonia (Chinese nationality), and a total of 55 confirmed cases imported overseas (51 Chinese nationality, American nationality) 2 cases, 1 French nationality, 1 Filipino nationality). The epidemic is not completely over, and the audience’s enthusiasm for the theater still needs to be discounted.

On the other hand, if you want to re-arrange the Chinese New Year movie, you need a complete arrangement plan; now the platform for downloading the key is still blocked, and the unblocking of some films whose key has not expired requires the approval of the film bureau and the layers of approval It takes time.

For film companies, the main source of income comes from movies, and the inability of films to be released results in the inability to return funds. But if the timing is not mature, these blockbuster movies will not be easily set. Theater opening hours vary across the country. If it is shown in some cities first, if the piracy situation is too rampant, it will be a great loss for the box office.

The Disney live-action movie “Mulan” was originally scheduled to be released on March 27As the global new crown epidemic raged, Disney changed it to be released in North America on July 24; Marvel’s “Black Widow” was changed from May 1 to the fall of November 6. Now that the global epidemic has not been well controlled, these two films should not be released on the mainland first.

Difficult to resume work, transfer network to save yourself

Since the outbreak of new coronary pneumonia, the movie industry has almost been pressed the pause button. After “Chinatown Detective 3” issued a file change statement on January 23, the seven Chinese New Year files have announced their withdrawal. With over 10 billion box office evaporating, major theaters are facing a battle for survival.

The blockbuster blockbuster for the Spring Festival stalls has seriously hurt the producers and distributors behind it, and the pressure on funds has increased.

This situation continued until March 16, and some theaters in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Fujian and other places once resumed business temporarily. However, on March 27, Xinhua Daily News Junction News learned from the Provincial Film Bureau that it received a notice from the National Film Administration that all theaters will not resume business temporarily, and those that have resumed business will immediately suspend business. From trying to resume work to shutting down again, but after ten days, the theaters that had gradually resumed business before, shut down again across the board.

During this short period of resumption, Beacon data shows that from March 16 to March 22, 529 theaters in mainland China opened, with a resumption rate of 4.8%, and the overall performance is not optimistic Taking March 22 as an example, the total number of sessions of the resumption cinema reached 1389 on that day, while the number of movie watchers was only 1326, and the average number of movie watchers was less than 1 person.

Cat Eye Professional Edition data shows that on March 27, among the 194 theaters counted by the platform, more than 50 theaters had a box office revenue of 0, and more than 80 theaters had a box office revenue of less than 100 yuan.

Although the domestic epidemic situation was basically controlled in late March, it was clear that theaters, film and television companies, theater lines, and the consumer market had not yet been fully restored. ready.

The epidemic has accelerated the pace of cinema-to-web movies being broadcast on the online video platform.

The offline movie watching channel was cut off by the sudden epidemic, but the user’s movie watching demand will not disappear in a vacuum. In particular, as the epidemic situation tends to ease, people’s demand for offline entertainment begins to gradually migrate to online. In order to meet the needs of users, all major video platforms are actively expanding the film library reserve, covering only tens of thousands of movies on the iQiyi platform alone, and on the content output of new films, according to Yunhe data statistics, the video before and after the Spring Festival 2020 The platform launched a total of 30 online movies, an increase of 10 from last year.

The more intuitive performance is that Ai Youteng released their box office share data. As of the end of February, there were at least 14 online movies with more than 10 million box office accounts on the three major platforms. This data is almost the same as that in 2019. The results of the 15 films produced in half a year have reached 10 million yuan. And by the end of March, on the iQiyi platform alone, the number of films that broke through the box office at 10 millionIt has reached as many as 13 and the entire network has reached 22.

The box office carrying capacity of the online video platform continues to release greater potential, and the news of the cinema movies frequently broadcast on the network. ByteDance spent 630 million yuan to buy the exclusive broadcast right of “囧 妈”, which immediately detonated the topic. As the first “crab-eating” person, “囧 妈” fired the first shot of the cinema movie transfer network. Afterwards, theater movies such as “Fat Dragon Crossing the River”, “Big Winner” and “We Never Say Never Give Up” have been launched online.

The Internet can be one of the outlets of movies, but the offline movie viewing experience is irreplaceable online. And watching movies offline is also a necessary channel for the return of funds from many head films.

As of now, China ’s new coronary pneumonia epidemic has been effectively controlled, and most provinces and cities have experienced zero new cases for many days, and the epidemic situation is in good shape. Although some fans still hold a wait-and-see attitude toward re-entering the movie theater in the short term, the movie box office is expected to usher in a surge at the Golden Week in the “Eleventh” month after a few months.

Under the effective and rapid anti-epidemic measures, our country took four months to control the epidemic from rapid spread to the current good condition. There are nearly five months away from the “Eleventh”, as long as you do not relax The current anti-epidemic measures, I believe that in four months, during the “Eleventh” Golden Week, major theaters across the country are expected to return to their former appearance, and the box office of the movie will inevitably exhibit a “revenge” The growth situation, this long-lasting film and television feast will eventually come.