The smaller the difference between the two selection effects, the harder it is to make a decision.
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Editor’s note: Do you also have “selective phobia”? Even if several choices sound good, even if they all have similar effects on your life, and the smaller the difference, the easier it is to get tangled. We may be caught in the “Fredkin Paradox”. In fact, in front of the choice, it is important to let the future self not regret. The article is translated from Medium, author Thomas Oppong, the original title The Fredkin ’s Paradox: How We Waste a Ton of Time on Unimportant Decisions.
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We make hundreds of decisions every day: when to get up, when to exercise, what to eat for breakfast, which emails to watch or reply to, the first thing to do in the morning is what tasks to complete, when to rest, lunch What to eat, when to call family and friends, etc.
Researchers at Cornell University say that we make 226.7 decisions on food alone each day. Most of these decisions are very simple, and we will not worry about it.
But we also make various other difficult and important decisions-those that make us unable to stop thinking, those that make us sleepless. Whether it’s asking for a child, marrying someone, buying a house, or moving to another place to pursue one career after another.
It is difficult to make these decisions because one choice is not significantly better than another equally good choice. But usually, these decisions will have a significant impact on our lives.
Have you noticed that when you have too many choices, how do you spend a lot of time making decisions? Whether this decision is easy or difficult, or whether it has changed lives.
Related to this, if these options are equally attractive, and we ca n’t reduce uncertainty through further research, why do we waste so much time measuring our options?
This paradox is often referred to as Fredkin ’sparadox), proposed by computer scientist Edward Fredkin. Fredkin ’s colleague Marvin Minsky quoted Fredkin in his influential book The Society of Mind: “The more attractive the two options are, Similarly, the more difficult it is to make a choice between the two—although to the same extent, the choice itself is not too important. ”
Fredkin ’s paradox states: “In the case where choices must be made, as the effects of the two choices get closer and closer, decision making becomes more difficult, but the result is even less important. “
In many of your decisions, as the selection narrows and the quality similarity becomes higher, even if the results become less important, the decision will become difficult. This is true whether it is a big decision or a small one.
Esther Inglis-Arkell, author of the website Gizmodo wrote: “… The natural consequences of the two choices are almost the same, which means we will spend more Long time carefully weigh the choices that have less impact on our lives. “
It ’s human nature to waste time on equally good choices, even when it is difficult to obtain or analyze more information, and even if the information is obtained and analyzed, it will not greatly affect our expected results. It also requires a “detailed understanding” of the decision. Even if the marginal utility of a decision relative to other decisions is negligible, we will still spend a lot of time considering another option.
Fredkin ’s paradox is everywhere, especially when we make simple, life-changing buying decisions.
Consider the chocolate and vanilla flavors of ice cream. You will find that these two options are very attractive (just make an analogy), so it is difficult to make a decision, because one choice is not clearly superior Another option. But in this case, the risk is very low, even if you choose the wrong one will not change your life. Tania Lombrozo, a psychology professor at the University of California, Berkeley, explained: “Even if you choose vanilla ice cream, it turns out that it is much worse than you think, or even if your friend ordered After the chocolate ice cream is happy to call out, your regret is only short-lived. “
Think about the last time you bought a car. The first and easiest decision may be what kind of car you want. For many people, buying a car involves brand, price, design, etc., and some people will also consider function, reliability, safety, insurance, maintenance costs, etc. Even if you know what you want, you will still be troubled by the remaining two options.
When we are in restaurants, supermarkets, retail stores, even when deciding what socks to wear. Even if this decision will not affectWhat economists call the “expected utility” also takes a long time to consider other options.
This feeling of powerlessness arises both when information is lacking and when information is overwhelming. It is called the paradox of choice. Although Fredkin’s paradox haunts your buying decision, this choice paradox may also affect many of your investment decisions.
“The worst case scenario is that we did not choose any potentially good option in the end, but chose an absolutely bad option-staying where it is.” Oliver Berkman, a columnist at the Guardian ( Oliver Burkeman) wrote: “This is the fate of ‘Bridan’s Donkey’. This hypothetical donkey is located in the middle of the hay and water, and it is hungry and thirsty to the same extent, but it stays where it is. Starved to death. “
Just knowing Fred King ’s paradox may not reduce your tendency to think too much about your choices. Berkman also mentioned the philosopher Alan Watts, who observed that what we call a “decision” (gradually toward solution) process is often not just a decision. Instead, it is just a process of switching back and forth between options, and then comes with a sudden, intuitive, semi-random choice.
Summary: In order to make a sensible, life-changing decision, it ’s worth thinking about a decisive issue that will maximize your chances of making a choice that reduces your future regrets . Optimize your decision based on avoiding regret, rather than making major decisions based on success / failure or happiness / pain.
When you optimize your life based on a path that will make you least regretful, you can imagine your future self in a simulated future state and try to feel what regrets you might experience.
When making life-changing decisions, this is a great way to measure choices—just make full use of the accurate, better, and more complete information you have available.
Despite understanding the “Fredkin Paradox,” learning to make wise decisions can help you work more efficiently, manage stress, prevent exhaustion, and lead a more satisfying life.
Translator: Yoyo_J